Trends Identified
Virtual, augmented and remote services will change the geography of services
It is likely that services typically conducted face-to-face will be increasingly performed online. Visits to a doctor or lawyer will likely start with a virtual pre-screening interview; the visit itself may also be virtual. In schools, each student may be equipped with a personal AI teacher who monitors their progress and advancement through content modules, with human teachers playing an oversight role. Augmented reality devices may enable travelers and tourists to explore, relax or do business without leaving home. “Telepresencing” (the sense of being in multiple locations at once) will allow users to choose the best service provider for their needs from anywhere in the world rather than the best one in their area.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Environmental Degradation and Climate Change
It is now widely recognized that the causes of environmental degradation and climate change—and their potential solutions—are essentially linked to human activity (IPCC 2015). The impact of human activity on the environment and the climate is one of the megatrends that will shape future trajectories of—and can potentially undermine— progress on sustainable development, including on eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Technology and media: enabling growth, facilitating inequality?
It is tempting to overstate the influence of technological change on the evolving landscape of the European Union in the long and short term. Yet, technological change is possible only to the extent that individuals and societies understand, accept and absorb technology, or contribute to its development in a variety of ways (ITU, 2011; World Bank, 2012; OECD, 2012a; Perez, 2010). Without this human factor, which ranges from tolerance to adherence, technological change in itself would be close to irrelevant, as past human fears and rejections of new technologies – especially during periods of industrial revolution – suggest. However, the benefit of technological change should be weighed carefully, since the phenomenon is both an enabler and a facilitator of greater ambitions and an accelerator of inequalities between the high- and low-skilled (see Cave et al., 2009; Facer and Sandford, 2012). To this extent, technological change is perhaps one of the most illustrative examples of a cross-cutting issue with uncertain consequences, as it impacts labour, economic growth and other technologies, sometimes in twoway relationships. For instance, in the relationship between labour markets and technology creation, does the latter enable the former or vice versa? The impact of technology on issues ranging from education to skills or demand for political change will depend to a large extent to the adoption of technology. This is likely to be a major driver for change, insofar as future inequalities are projected to revolve around the ability to reap the benefit of technological change for capacity building (in terms of skills, literacy, etc).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Seamless Collaboration
It is time for the enterprise to reimagine the way its employees work. The rise in social networking has breathed new life into collaboration. Users’ new social behavior and growing expectation that every app will be “social” are pushing companies to create new user experiences. However, to increase productivity, enterprises must move beyond standalone social and collaboration channels; they must begin to directly embed those channels into their core business processes. The new approach: build social, collaborative applications throughout the enterprise.
2013
Accenture Technology Vision 2013
Accenture
Cities of Flows and the Spectre of the Sustainable City
It is vitally important to recognise that planetary urbanisation is one of the main drivers of the ecological predicament the world is in. Indeed, the ‘sustainability’ of contemporary urban life – understood as the expanded reproduction of its socio-physical form and functioning – accounts for 80% of the world’s resource use, of global ecological degradation, and of the world’s waste. What I wish to foreground in this contribution is that these urban roots that structure global socio- ecological flows and the feeble techno-managerial attempts to produce more ‘sustainable’ forms of urban living actually are customarily ignored by both researchers and policy-makers, while it is precisely these socio-metabolic flows that continue to sharpen the combined and uneven socio-ecological patterning that marks contemporary urbanisation dynamics.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
PaaS-enabled agility
IT leaders must look beyond cloud debates to pinpoint the business processes and applications that will matter most to their organizations—and that are best suited to a platform-as-a-service model. PaaS is not just a tool for squeezing cost out of IT; it will provide an environment that can support rapid evolution for key business processes that need continuous change.
2012
Accenture Technology Vision 2012
Accenture
Autonomic platforms - Building blocks for labor-less IT
IT may soon become a self-managing service provider without technical limitations of capacity, performance, and scale. By adopting a “build once, deploy anywhere” approach, retooled IT workforces—working with new architectures built upon virtualized assets, containers, and advanced management and monitoring tools—could seamlessly move workloads among traditional on-premises stacks, private cloud platforms, and public cloud services.
2016
Tech trends 2016 - innovating in the digital era
Deloitte
Real-time DevOps
IT organizations need to better respond to business needs with speed and agility. IT can likely improve the quality of its products and services by standardizing and automating environment, build, release, and configuration management—using tools like deployment managers, virtualization, continuous integration servers, and automated build verification testing. Popular in the agile world, DevOps capabilities are growing in many IT organizations with either waterfall or agile methodologies.
2014
Tech trends 2014 - Inspiring Disruption
Deloitte
The UK economy: 'The popular revolt against bankers will become impossible to resist'
It will be a second financial crisis in the 2010s – probably sooner than later – that will prove to be the remaking of Britain. Confronted by a second trillion-pound bank bailout in less than 10 years, it will be impossible for the City and wider banking system to resist reform. The popular revolt against bankers, their current business model in which neglect of the real economy is embedded and the scale of their bonuses – all to be underwritten by bailouts from taxpayers – will become irresistible. The consequent rebalancing of the British economy, already underway, will intensify.Britain, in thrall to finance since 1945, will break free – spearheading a second Industrial Revolution.In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country, the key state in a reconfigured EU. Our leading universities will become powerhouses of innovation, world centres in exploiting the approaching avalanche of scientific and technological breakthroughs. A reformed financial system will allow British entrepreneurs to get the committed financial backing they need, becoming the capitalist leaders in Europe. And, after a century of trying, Britain will at last build itself a system for developing apprentices and technicians that is no longer the Cinderella of the education system.It will not be plain sailing. Massive political turbulence in China and its conflict with the US will define part of the next 25 years – and there will be a period when the world trading and financial system retreats from openness.How far beggar-my-neighbour competitive devaluations and protection will develop is hard to predict, but protectionist trends are there for all to see. Commodity prices will go much higher and there will be shortages of key minerals, energy, water and some basic foodstuffs. The paradox is that this will be good news for Britain. It will force the state to reengage with the economy and to build a matrix of institutions that will support innovation and investment, rather as it did between 1931 and 1950. New Labour began this process tremulously in its last year in office; the coalition government is following through. These will be lean years for the traditional Conservative right, but whether it will be a liberal One Nation Tory party, ongoing coalition governments or the Labour party that will be the political beneficiary is not yet sure. The key point is that those 20 years in the middle of the 20th century witnessed great industrial creativity and an unsung economic renaissance until the country fell progressively under the stultifying grip of the City of London. My guess is that the same, against a similarly turbulent global background, is about to happen again. My caveat is if the City remains strong, in which case economic decline and social division will escalate.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Behavioural and Cognitive Science
It will be more difficult to quantify the direct application of advances in cognitive science than it is in nanotechnology or biotechnology. However, indications are that certain interdisciplinary advances, such as neuro-imaging technologies, may make the mapping of brain activity with behaviour more reliable. Modelling techniques are likely to become more powerful and increasingly capable of more accurately understanding the complexity of human behaviour and performance at various scales, and over different time constants.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence