Trends Identified
Science for sale in a global market place
The global free-market economy reigns and intense levels of interaction occur between economic agents across national borders. Thousands of multinational companies constitute powerful international players and drive the ever-faster pace of globalization. New scientific discoveries and technological developments have created whole new industries that power economic development in advanced and a few rapidly emerging economies. Countries have increasingly specialized in supplying only certain products to global markets, but still compete intensely for the investments of foot-loose capitalism. These investments include R&D facilities and funding, which are much more widely dispersed across advanced and emerging economies than in previous times.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Individual Empowerment: More Unintended Consequences
The global middle class worries about falling back into poverty. Democratization lags and there is a loss of Western confidence in democracy. Citizenship becomes supplanted by self/group identity, spurred by the Internet.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Demographic shifts
The global population could reach 9.6 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. In 2000, for the first time, there were more people over the age of 60 in the world than children under five. By 2050, four-fifths of older people will live in developing countries, where 80% of them will have no regular income. Youth unemployment is also growing. In 2012, 15- to 24-year-olds made up 40% of the total unemployed population.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
A new demographic mix
The global population is aging. After rapid population increases during the 20th century, birth rates have stalled—and even reversed—in many regions. By 2035, one in five people worldwide will be 65 or older.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Changing Demographics
The global population is likely to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.8 billion by 2040.140 The developing world will account for most of the growth, remaining relatively youthful, in contrast to the developed world and China, which will experience little population growth and undergo significant increases in median age.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
More births, fewer deaths and increased overseas migration
The global population is predicted to increase to 8.5 billion in 2030, to 9.7 billion in 2050, and then to 11.2 billion in 210093.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
The energy future is renewable
The global progress of renewable energies is primarily a result of the almost unbelievable success in reducing the costs. Wind energy plants on land are still the most cost-effective technology for renewable power generation. But in Germany the costs for solar power have dropped by 80 per cent since 2005. Increasing numbers of economy and financial experts are basing their analyses on photovoltaics now becoming the most cost-effective technology for electricity generation in ever more regions of the world. Electricity from the sun and wind will expand its triumphal progress beyond the power sector into the areas of mobility and heating.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
Heads and Hearts
The Global Risks Report tends to deal with structural issues: systems under stress, institutions that no longer match the challenges facing the world, adverse impacts of policies and practices. All these issues entail widespread human costs in terms of psychological and emotional strain. This is usually left implicit but it deserves more attention—and not only because declining psychological and emotional well-being is a risk in itself. It also affects the wider global risks landscape, notably via impacts on social cohesion and politics.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Unemployment
The global unemployment rate during the MDG period fell from 6.5 percent in 2000 to 5.5 percent in 2007 but increased to 6.2 percent in 2009 due to the downturn of economic activity during the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, however, the unemployment rate worldwide has been declining steadily, reaching 5.8 percent in 2016, and is projected to fall further in the coming years
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Urbanisation
The global urban population began to exceed the rural population in 2006. By 2040, 65% of people are likely to live in urban areas, with the majority of growth in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia.155 A considerable proportion of urban growth is likely to occur in shanty towns, with the number of slum dwellers doubling to around 2 billion by 2040. Rapid urbanisation is likely to lead to urban rather than rural insurgency.156 Mega-cities157 are likely to remain significant, containing around 10% of the global urban population. However, approximately 50% of urban dwellers are likely to live within urban areas of less than 500,000 people. These regions are likely to absorb nearly half the projected increase of the urban population and face the greatest shortfalls in infrastructure and service provision increasing the risk of environmental disasters.1
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence