Trends Identified
Strategic Foresight: a Mechanism for Stakeholder Mutuality
The last decade was marked by a fundamental misalignment between the global economic system and the societies which it is expected to serve, between political systems that must enable prosperity and progress and the rising expectations of voters. This is at the heart of the social upheaval, rising populism and the declining trust in institutions seen in many western democracies.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Demographic changes
The last few decades have experienced social change on a remarkable scale. In particular there have been extraordinary gains in longevity in developed countries, with average life expectancy at birth rising from 66 years in 1950 to just over 76 years in 2007 (United Nations 2007). This has had, and will continue to have, far-reaching implications for the composition of families. Meanwhile, the last few decades have also seen signi cant falls in fertility rates. Birth rates have declined sharply across developed countries generally. In 1950, the total fertility rate (TFR), i.e. the average number of children being born per woman, was 2.8, but by 2007 the TFR had fallen to 1.6, leaving many OECD countries well below the fertility rate of 2.1 per woman needed to replace the population at a constant level.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD
Global unemployment remains elevated at more than 190 million
The latest developments in global unemployment are also mixed. According to the ILO’s new estimation, based on improved data sets and methodologies, the global unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 5.5 per cent in 2018 (from 5.6 per cent in 2017), marking a turnaround after three years of rising unemployment rates. However, with a growing number of people entering the labour market to seek employment, the total number of unemployed is expected to remain stable in 2018, above 192 million. In 2019, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain essentially unchanged, whereas the number of unemployed is projected to grow by 1.3 million.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Globalization
The liberalization of global economic policy has opened borders, supply chains, and trade patterns, creating impacts in one country or region that affect or cascade to others, based on market activity.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Climate change: more disasters
The likely trends over the next thirty years are for increases in the severity and intensity of sudden onset natural disasters, particularly those related to weather (storms, hurricanes, cyclones, flooding). These will increasingly affect urban populations, in part because there will simply be more people living in cities and in part because more people will be living on more marginal land. Climate change will also drive rural to urban migration.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
We are finally going to spend more time online than watching TV.
The lines will cross some time in 2019: Around the world, people will start spending more hours a day on the Internet than watching television. The glass-half-empty way to look at it is people are turning away from legacy media, says Viacom President and CEO Bob Bakish. The glass-half-full vision: “There is more content being consumed today than ever before in history,” he adds. For Viacom, that has meant expanding its intellectual property across many platforms or creating shows for third-party streaming sites. “We do work with folks that maybe didn't exist 10 years ago, and started getting into the media business five years ago,” he says. “It's a year of a mixed economy and a mixed ecosystem. And that's the world of the future.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Humans, meet AI
The machines have risen. And marketers have discovered they can be delightfully useful. The danger, of course, is following this trend, rather than understanding the far-reaching changes AI will bring to social marketing. Over 100 thousand Messenger bots are now active on Facebook (a 233 percent YOY growth over last year’s 33 thousand). But it’s still unclear whether customers will value these human-less engagements. While AI is still a future-facing trend, marketers can expect to start reaping the practical benefits in 2018. Facebook, for example, has released new predictive analytics to help marketers find insights faster. And visual search engines are using machine learning to help consumers search by images rather than keywords, a shift that will redefine the future of online product browsing.
2018
Social media trends 2018
Hootsuit
Population growth will still bene t a few
The majority of countries in Africa and the Middle Eastern region will benefit from an increase in their working populations, which will be an advantage in sustaining higher growth rates in the forecast period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Electric Car Quick Charging Technology
The market penetration rate of electric cars is expected to increase rapidly within 10 years and the charging technology will lead these changes with high demand.However, revolutionary improvement of the charging speed comparable to the current speed is necessary.
2011
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2011
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Developing human capital
The massive population shift from farm to factory has altered the social landscape in the fast-growing emerging economies, but social infrastructure has not kept pace. Broadening access to education and improving its quality over the coming decade will be crucial if those economies will successfully navigate the transition to a higher value-added service and technology-based economy. Likewise, building a basic healthcare delivery system and weaving a stronger social safety net will absorb a far higher proportion of investment than in the past. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $2 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company