Trends Identified
The values that built the West will have been tested to breaking point
We forget the checks and balances that bolster our democracies at our peril, writes Kenneth Roth, Executive Director of Human Rights Watch.
2016
Eight predictions for 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The ‘internet of everywhere’
We have become dependent on mobile communications in our daily lives, but the dirty secret is that mobile networks around the globe are notoriously energy inefficient. In fact, we are stuck with outdated mobile network technology that basically performs as poorly as incandescent lightbulbs, with the result that 70% of the energy used is wasted as heat. By 2020, we predict that pioneering innovations in radio engineering will have a positive impact on the world’s economy, environment and quality of life. We even foresee a time when advances allow renewable energy to power the mobile industry, helping bridge the digital divide and extend communications to the 1.7 billion people living off-grid.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
NoOps in a serverless world
We have reached the next stage in the evolution of cloud computing in which technical resources can now be completely abstracted from the underlying system infrastructure and enabling tooling. Cloud providers are continuing to climb the stack; rather than simply providing everything from the “hypervisor on down,” they are now—through their own focus on hyper-automation—taking on many core systems administration tasks including patching, backup, and database management, among others. Together, these capabilities create a NoOps environment where software and software-defined hardware are provisioned dynamically. Going further, with serverless computing, traditional infrastructure and security management tasks can be fully automated, either by cloud providers or solution development teams. Freed from server management responsibilities, operations talent can transition into new roles as computing farm engineers who help drive business outcomes.
2019
Tech trends 2019 - Beyond the digital frontier
Deloitte
Models and data in decision-making
We will have ever more accurate description and models of many technical and natural phenomena; we might even have better models of human activity (behavioural models and data). We will have an ever increasing range of data on all aspects of policy and societal decisions. Citizens will be ever more involved in decisions processes in society, redefining the role of experts and even policy makers. We need to analyse opportunities and pitfalls from these developments in time. The ultimate use of models will most likely be as tools for orientation rather than as tools for prediction.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
A more aged population than ever before
We won’t just be wrestling with the fact that the world’s population is exploding – but people are living longer than ever, too. Which is great – but all those senior citizens are going to require care. In fact, the number of centenarians will increase more than 50 times – from 500,000 today to over 26 million by 2100. From the UK to Japan to China, societies with large numbers of people over 65 will become more common. In the next couple of decades, as that increase starts to happen, we’ll need better care for the elderly (Japan is even eyeing robots) and perhaps policies to allow more immigrants to try and make up for ageing workforces and in some cases, declining birth rates
2017
10 grand challenges we’ll face by 2050
The BBC
Technology and connectivity
We’re accustomed to seeing Moore’s law plotted on a logarithmic scale, which makes all this doubling look smooth. But we don’t buy computers logarithmically. As power increases, prices decrease, devices proliferate, and IT penetration deepens, aggregate computing capacity surges at an eye-popping rate: we estimate the world added roughly 5 exaflops of computing capacity in 2008 (at a cost of about $800 billion), more than 20 in 2012 (to the tune of just under $1 trillion), and is headed for roughly 40 this year (Exhibit 2). These extraordinary advances in capacity, power, and speed are fueling the rise of artificial intelligence, reshaping global manufacturing,3 and turbocharging advances in connectivity. Global flows of data, finance, talent, and trade are poised to triple in the decade ahead, from levels that already represent a massive leap forward.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
It’s a question of trust
We’ve discussed what CEOs are doing to make their organisations more agile, more appealing and more profitable. To succeed in, and align, these three goals, CEOs know they’ll have to repair the bridges between business and society. CEOs also recognise the important role that business can play in addressing social challenges and improving national outcomes.
2013
16th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
The global economy is shifting.
Weak economic growth will persist in the near term. Major economies will confront shrinking workforces and diminishing productivity gains while recovering from the 2008-09 financial crisis with high debt, weak demand, and doubts about globalization. China will attempt to shift to a consumer-driven economy from its longstanding export and investment focus. Lower growth will threaten poverty reduction in developing countries.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Climate Change and Weak States
Weak states have limited capacity for governance, and many are unlikely to adapt to the environmental challenges of climate change.168 Weak states are likely to have youthful populations, large families and be dependant on rural production for their income. Extreme weather events and increasing temperature will exacerbate instability due to immediate shortages of food and water. Longer-term effects may include a degradation of agricultural land that increases internal and regional migration. Weak states will be insufficiently prosperous to procure alternative supplies through external markets. In addition, they often have poor human rights records and suffer endemic corruption which weakens governance and service provision, increasing the likelihood of recurring instability. As the severity and incidence of internal instability increases, exacerbated by climate change, long-term societal changes can occur, such as the creation of large numbers of orphaned children or the displacement of large ethnic or tribal groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Wearable Computer
Wearable computer is a body-borne computer that is worn by the user under, with, or on top of clothing. Wearable technology was initially applied in military uses, but can now be applied to various fields including fashion and logistics.
2010
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2010
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)