Trends Identified
Climate Change
Global warming, rise of sea levels and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe recently. Impacts related to climate change are evident across regions and in many sectors important to society such as human health, agriculture and food security, water supply, transportation, energy, ecosystems, and others and are expected to become increasingly disruptive throughout this century and beyond.
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Climate change & ecosystem at risk
Global warming and strategies to offset carbon emissions are two of the most prevalent issues of the 21st century. As economies continue to grow, so too does the demand for energy and, as a result, CO2 emissions. As part of Roland Berger’s leading Trend Compendium 2030 , this in-depth analysis takes a detailed look at what growing energy demands mean for the future of industry. We investigate three key components – global warming, rising CO2 emissions, and the obstacles faced by our ecosystems – to uncover the global challenges that climate change will bring with it.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Global network development
Global networks will increasingly enable access to and provide information on commodities and capital assets. Global networks will increasingly be used for dissemination of post-truth information
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
A new era of global demographic decline
Global growth to 2050 is not expected to decline dramatically from its average historical levels. However, regional growth rates are expected to begin to decline across every region after 2030. Much of the global growth in recent decades has been driven by population growth. Long-term population estimates, however, reveal that growth in the global population is expected to see a dramatic decline from an average of 1.3% in the 1980-2014 period to 0.5% across the 2015-50 period. The slowdown in the growth rate of the global working-age population will be even starker, with a drop to 0.3% in the 2015-50 period, compared with an average growth rate of 1.7% in the 1980-2014 period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Off-shore wind farms
Global growth in electrical capacity at wind farms in the period up to 2035 is expected to be approximately 860 GW, 20% of which should come from high-tech sea-based wind farms. These will be built fastest of all; their total power, according to experts, should grow by more than 40 times, which grounds the interest to off-shore wind farms. At present wind farms’ share of total electricity generation is no more than 1.7%, with the majority only serving as pilot projects. The spread of this type of power plant will make it possible to significantly expand the use of wind’s resources and avoid a number of problems related to the development of land-based wind power, such as the inability to use the land for other economic activities, noise pollution, and the influence of strobing, etc. Off-shore wind is more of a “quality” resource for wind energy, as it is characterised by greater average annual speeds and continuity.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Commodity prices will continue to decline and fluctuate
Global GDP growth has consistently outpaced the demand for commodities. Though commodity prices are high now, creating improvements in the terms of trade for some African countries, it is expected to resume its downward trend. Thus, it is expected that commodity prices will continue to fall relative to manufactured goods and knowledge-intensive services.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Environmental / Climate Change
Global environmental change and its impacts are becoming readily apparent and are projected to increase in the future. In some areas these changes could present benefits, such as less energy requirements for heating, longer growing seasons that allow increased agricultural production, and the opening of the Arctic for resource exploration and shipping traffic. However, these benefits are likely to be offset by negative effects elsewhere, including coastal inundation, desertification, deforestation and other ecological effects that will have a direct impact on the world’s fresh water and food. Water stress is expected to be the most inevitable near-term impact of climate change.49
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Energy Demand
Global Energy use has approximately doubled over the last 30 years170 and, by 2040, demand is likely to grow by more than half again. Despite concerns over climate change, demand is likely to remain positively correlated to economic growth171 with fossil fuels, meeting more than 80% of this increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Commercial Imperative
Global economic growth, resource pressure in its widest sense and increasing socio-economic dependency ratios will fuel demand; creating opportunities for innovation and investment. Development is increasingly likely to be directed towards commercial imperatives. For example, business enterprises accounted for 68% of OECD Research and Development (R&D) expenditure.233 This aspect will drive innovators to identify maximum applications and markets for their discoveries, with interdisciplinary R&D likely to lead to the most revolutionary outcomes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Energy
Global economic growth, prosperity and rising populations will push up energy needs over the coming decades and as a consequence, governments are introducing measures to drive investment in efficient and low-carbon technologies. The Fukushima nuclear accident, turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010 which pushed CO2 emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge.
2012
The future
Steria