Trends Identified
Silence is gold
"We’re seeing a dramatic escalation in the rate at which people disconnect, unsubscribe and opt out to stem the barrage of content and messages that clutter daily life. As consumers, we’ve come to realize that it’s no longer simply a lifestyle choice, but a serious mental health issue. As we put up more barriers between ourselves and digital technologies, organizations must learn how to offer value to users who crave quiet in a noisy world."
2019
Fjord trends 2019
Fjord
We will ask ourselves hard questions about what free speech means.
"This isn’t about the death of free speech on college campuses, which sometimes can’t find a hall to host a political provocateur on short notice. It’s about a deeper and more deeply fraught idea that has already been embraced by Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, that European-style censorship may be necessary. Maybe there are ideas so obnoxious, like the belief that the parents of students slain in a mass shooting are part of an anti-gun conspiracy, that we shouldn’t let them be amplified endlessly on the Internet. Or maybe we should be uncomfortable that these censorship decisions are being made by a few tech leaders, who historically have had little interest in either the journalistic principles that have guided other media magnates, or the costs of paying human beings to gather and weigh facts. It’s unclear to me how we quash or validate dangerous ideas except through vigorous, open debate, but even I have to admit that this hasn't worked well recently. What we all know now is that the case for free speech is weaker now than it has been in 50 years."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Technologies are converging across multiple industries
"The financial services industry pioneered technology that enables very high speed marketplaces and machine-to-machine communications. Some of these technologies are now being applied in other industries as well as in non-financial markets everywhere. Take general-purpose time series databases and Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), software embedded on hardware to allow a much more deterministic speed, as examples. These technologies have been essential to financial services firms for some time. Now cloud providers are deploying both, and automakers are using FPGA within their vehicle systems. Simultaneously, the financial services industry is looking at how other industries are leveraging technology to increase efficiency, reduce risk, improve customer service and gain competitive advantage. To illustrate, the Internet of Things (IoT) is taking machine-to-machine communications to the next level in many areas including agriculture and supply chain management. GPUs used in gaming are enabling machine learning, which is being applied across all industries. Financial firms are moving away from technology islands and leveraging technology architectures and designs in their core infrastructure that are similar to those used in other industries. Examples include distributed global connectivity solutions used in telecommunications, and global networks and platforms that have been within the purview of Google and Facebook. Tech convergence is all about applying technology in creative ways to solve problems, accelerate innovation and meet customer needs. Nasdaq is working constantly to spot new trends and exploring opportunities to adopt new technologies where appropriate. "
2019
NASDAQ DECODES: TECH TRENDS 2019 -The technology trends that are driving the world of markets forward
Nasdaq
Polarization
"Polarization the rise of divisiveness and divergence..Rise of ideology: Fueled by individual empowerment, access to information and communication technologies, and growing wealth inequalities, the world is seeing a rise in ideology as people and communities seek dramatic change from the status quo. As individuals engage increasingly over social networks due to the proliferation of ICT technologies, networks of ideological thinkers are no longer constrained by proximity and are able to grow exponentially with new followers who seek sources of insight online. Bursting digital bubble: Driven by the increase of mobile technologies that have enabled constant connectivity, the world around us has fundamentally changed. What has resulted is a pervasive dependence on technology for everything from social interaction to transactions to health monitoring. However, venture capitalists are predicting the burst of the tech bubble as the democratization of knowledge has led to an oversaturation and overvaluation of players in the market. Politicism of science: As people become more entrenched in their individual value systems and as environmental outcomes are increasingly tied to political and financial motivations, a politicism in scientific reasoning has emerged in today’s world. This skepticism is an example of one of the negative consequences of an increasingly polarized world, a “kick the can” mentality about issues which affect the long-term viability of our planet.Skillset divide: Following the Great Recession, the workforce particularly in the United States realized more significant employment declines in middle-skilled white- and blue-collar jobs (e.g., construction, manufacturing, mining) than in the high-skill or low-skill sectors. While those losses have stabilized somewhat in the US, the polarization in skillsets valued in today’s global market still exists. Institutionalized radicalism: While the term “radicals” once meant one-off individual extremists as part of a certain religion or political group, the world has evolved to a place where radicalism has become the norm. In one example, we have the rise of ISIS as a pervasive threat in the Middle East that has now infiltrated global corridors with their terrorism. We also see a different kind of radicalism emerge in the United States, the rise of untraditional political players who capitalize on general dissatisfaction with the status quo to galvanize a new tier of supporters with more money, influence, and power."
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Geopolitics: 'Rivals will take greater risks against the US'
"No balance of power lasts forever. Just a century ago, London was the centre of the world. Britain bestrode the world like a colossus and only those with strong nerves (or weak judgment) dared challenge the Pax Britannica. That, of course, is all history, but the Pax Americana that has taken shape since 1989 is just as vulnerable to historical change. In the 1910s, the rising power and wealth of Germany and America splintered the Pax Britannica; in the 2010s, east Asia will do the same to the Pax Americana. The 21st century will see technological change on an astonishing scale. It may even transform what it means to be human. But in the short term – the next 20 years – the world will still be dominated by the doings of nation-states and the central issue will be the rise of the east. By 2030, the world will be more complicated, divided between a broad American sphere of influence in Europe, the Middle East and south Asia, and a Chinese sphere in east Asia and Africa. Even within its own sphere, the US will face new challenges from former peripheries. The large, educated populations of Poland, Turkey, Braziland their neighbours will come into their own and Russia will continue its revival. Nevertheless, America will probably remain the world's major power. The critics who wrote off the US during the depression of the 1930s and the stagflation of the 1970s lived to see it bounce back to defeat the Nazis in the 1940s and the Soviets in the 1980s. America's financial problems will surely deepen through the 2010s, but the 2020s could bring another Roosevelt or Reagan. A hundred years ago, as Britain's dominance eroded, rivals, particularly Germany, were emboldened to take ever-greater risks. The same will happen as American power erodes in the 2010s-20s. In 1999, for instance, Russia would never have dared attack a neighbour such as Georgia but in 2009 it took just such a chance. The danger of such an adventure sparking a great power war in the 2010s is probably low; in the 2020s, it will be much greater. The most serious threats will arise in the vortex of instability that stretches from Africa to central Asia. Most of the world's poorest people live here; climate change is wreaking its worst damage here; nuclear weapons are proliferating fastest here; and even in 2030, the great powers will still seek much of their energy here. Here, the risk of Sino-American conflict will be greatest and here the balance of power will be decided."
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Automation will disproportionately impact women’s jobs.
"New technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning are changing the way work gets done all over the world. The automation trend is especially challenging for women because they tend to be employed in more routine tasks than men across all sectors and occupations, making them more prone to automation. New IMF research estimates that 26 million women’s jobs in 30 countries are at high risk of being displaced by technology in the next 20 years. This means 180 million women’s jobs globally!We don’t have much time to act, so 2019 is the year to make important inroads in tackling this challenge. How? We must help women get the skills they need to succeed. Education and training will be key — including greater emphasis on lifelong learning and STEM. Think, in particular, of coding programs like Girls Who Code in the U.S. or developing tax deductions for training as they do in the Netherlands. We also need to close gender gaps in leadership positions across all sectors, while doing more to help men and women combine work and family life. Finally, we need to do a better job at bridging the digital divide and ensure women have equal access to finance, bank accounts and connectivity. 2019 is the year we should take a leap forward in leveling the playing field between men and women."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Bendable Devices Make Their Debut
"Hone up on your origami because 2019 will see the launch of foldable phones with flexible screens, replacing convertible or detachable devices. These devices are expected to be lightweight, unbreakable and compact. Several companies—Apple, Motorola, LG, Huawei and Samsung—are in a race to launch first generation foldable phones with flexible screens in 2019. In the meantime, LG has stolen a march over its competitors by unveiling its rollup, ultra high definition TV earlier this week at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Royole debuted its FlexiPal bendable tablet at the same venue."
2019
Top 10 Trends For 2019
Forbes
Don’t even try to guess the price of oil.
"Here’s a prediction for 2019: Energy markets are going to remain wildly unpredictable. One realization I came to when I worked on my last book was that most everyone who makes predictions about the future of oil prices is alike in one remarkable respect: They are wrong. "Remember M King Hubbert’s famous prediction of peak oil back in the 1970s? He looked roughly right — until the shale revolution changed everything. Now, the shale revolution is supposed to ensure a mammoth and growing supply of U.S. oil for the foreseeable future. 'Lower for longer,' meaning oil prices in the $50 range, has become something of a mantra on Wall Street. But skeptics suspect there may be fewer wells that are profitable at $50 oil than executives would have you believe. If so, and if the dearth of long-term projects over the past decade results in less supply than expected, there may be price spikes in the future. Or not. I think this is the ultimate truth about the oil market: It defies people’s attempts at predicting it, much less controlling it."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Data minimalism
"Data’s headline appearances throughout 2018 distorted people’s understanding of the value exchange between data owner (you) and data user (organizations). Expectations around how much people’s personal data is worth became falsely inflated, and the mystery surrounding how it’s used became a cause for concern. Moving forward, organizations must design for transparency, so that consumers can trust that they’re pursuing only the data they need to build new products and services, and that they’re using and storing that data responsibly. "
2019
Fjord trends 2019
Fjord
The American family continues to change.
"A growing share of parents are unmarried. Among parents living with a child, the share who are unmarried increased from 7% in 1968 to 25% in 2017. Part of this increase is due to a growing share of unmarried parents cohabiting, as 35% of unmarried parents were in 2017. Over the same period, the share of U.S. children living with an unmarried parent more than doubled, from 13% in 1968 to 32% in 2017. Stay-at-home parents account for about one-in-five parents (18%), which is roughly similar to 25 years ago, despite some fluctuation in the intervening years. For some parents, caring for a child isn’t their only responsibility: 12% of all parents with a child younger than 18 at home are also caring for an adult. Lifetime fertility for women is ticking up. The share of women at the end of their childbearing years who have ever given birth is rising and is now similar to what it was in the early 1990s. While American women are having their children later in life than in the past, they are still doing so earlier (and have more children) than women in many other developed nations. Americans generally see change on the horizon when it comes to the future of the family, according to a Pew Research Center survey. A majority of Americans (53%) say that people will be less likely to get married in the year 2050, and 46% say people will be less likely to have children than they are now. Even today, 71% of parents younger than age 50 say they are unlikely to have more kids in the future, while 37% of childless adults of the same age say they are unlikely to ever have kids, according to another survey by the Center."
2019
6 demographic trends shaping the U.S. and the world in 2019
Pew Research Center