Trends Identified
Skill imbalances
The skills and capabilities businesses require are rapidly evolving. Even as automation may yield a surplus of unskilled and semiskilled labor, the digitalization of products and services is creating an enormous demand for skilled digital talent. By 2020, 30% of tech jobs will go unfilled because of talent shortages.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Perovskite Solar Cells
The silicon solar cells that currently dominate the world market suffer from three fundamental limitations. A promising new way of making high-efficiency solar cells, using perovskites instead of silicon, could address all three at once and supercharge the production of electricity from sunlight. The first major limitation of silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells is that they are made from a material that is rarely found in nature in the pure, elemental form needed. While there is no shortage of silicon in the form of silicon dioxide (beach sand), it takes tremendous amounts of energy to get rid of the oxygen attached to it. Typically, manufacturers melt silicon dioxide at 1500–2000 degrees Celsius in an electrode arc furnace. The energy needed to run such furnaces sets a fundamental lower limit on the production cost of silicon PV cells and also adds to the emissions of greenhouse gases from their manufacture. Perovskites—a wide-ranging class of materials in which organic molecules, made mostly of carbon and hydrogen, bind with a metal such as lead and a halogen such as chlorine in a three-dimensional crystal lattice—can be made much more cheaply and with fewer emissions.Manufacturers can mix up batches of liquid solutions and then deposit the perovskites as thin films on surfaces of virtually any shape, no furnace needed. The film itself weighs very little. Those features thus eliminate the second big limitation of silicon solar cells, which is their rigidity and weight. Silicon PV cells work best when they are flat and housed in large, heavy panels. But those panels make large-scale installations very expensive, which is in part why you typically see them on rooftops and big solar “farms.” The third major limitation of conventional solar cells is their power conversion efficiency, which has been stuck at 25 percent for 15 years. When they were first described, perovskites offered much lower efficiency. In 2009, perovskite cells made of lead, iodide and methylammonium converted less than 4 percent of the sunlight that hit them into electricity. But the pace of improvement in perovskites has been phenomenal, thanks in part to the fact that thousands of different chemical compositions are possible within this class of material. By 2016, perovskite solar-cell efficiencies were above 20 percent—a five-fold improvement in just seven years and a stunning doubling in efficiency within just the past two years. They are now commercially competitive with silicon PV cells, and the efficiency limits of perovskites could be far higher still. Whereas silicon PV technology is now mature, perovskite PVs continue to improve rapidly. Researchers still need to answer some important questions about perovskites, such as how durable they will be when exposed to years of weathering and how to industrialize their production to churn out quantities large enough to compete with silicon wafers in the global market. But even a relatively small initial supply of these new cells could be important in bringing solar power to remote locations that are not yet connected to any electrical grid. When paired with emerging battery technology, perovskite solar cells could help transform the lives of 1.2 billion people who currently lack reliable electricity (see “Next Generation Batteries page 7”).
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Gender Equality
The significance of the divide between societies that are progressing towards gender equality and those that are not, will continue to grow. Progress towards equality will be uneven and conditioned by cultural assumptions, demographic trends and economic circumstances.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Beyond shanghai: the age of urbanization
The shifting of the locus of economic activity and dynamism to emerging markets like China and to cities within those markets. These emerging markets are going through simultaneous industrial and urban revolutions, shifting the center of the world economy east and south at a speed never before witnessed.
2015
The four global forces breaking all the trends
McKinsey
When China changes, everything changes
The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, the world’s largest energy consumer.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
New world order
The shift of economic power to emerging markets is in full swing. Reports suggest that the GDP of developing countries is now at least equal to the developed world.46 Developing countries’ share of global exports has increased over the last decade from 33 to 43 percent. Their share of global foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow has grown from nearly 20 to over 50 percent.47 China and India are on track to have 35 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of its GDP by 2030.48 Brazil, Russia, India, and China’s combined share of world GDP is expected to match that of the original G7 countries by 2030.49 Even if these projections prove too optimistic, the rise of new economic powers may be expected to lead to a new world order.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Continuing presence of instability in the world
The security challenges will remain a key issue for the EU over the next two decades. Structural change in Asia, Latin America, Eurasia, and Africa and particularly the Middle East with unresolved religious, sectarian, and ethnic tensions will continue to generate armed violence, including organised crime and terrorism.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Lithium-air Battery
The secondary battery that uses electric power generated by the combination of Li metal and atmospheric oxygen. As this battery provides 10 times larger capacity that existing batteries, it will be widely used for mobile power supply for electronic cars, mobile phones and laptop, etc.
2011
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2011
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Exploitation of Extreme Environments
The search for alternative sources of energy, minerals, food and water, enabled by the assured transfer and access to information, will become more urgent. Consequently the exploration of extreme environments such as: space; the Polar regions; the deep ocean; and deep underground regions is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Growing number of international ‘virtual workers’
The same tools that allow Canadians to work from a coffee shop will also support them in becoming “virtual workers” for employers in other countries. If they develop the right skills, they could compete globally for short tasks or part-time or full-time work. The system will also allow foreigners to bid for tasks and jobs in Canada. The workforce will become increasingly global. Worksites are emerging that facilitate finding virtual work (e.g., freelancer.ca or eLance.com). Reputation systems (e.g., eBay’s ratings system) will track individual performance, competence and specific skills to allow virtual employers to quickly find competent and trustworthy workers.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada