Trends Identified
Slow shift in the types of resources that are scarce, and the areas that are at risk
Resource scarcity is a potential source of conflict. Advances in synthetic biology could reduce pressure on some scarce natural resources by increasing the security of energy, material and food sources. In parallel, new and different minerals may become scarce. For example, lithium reserves may come under pressure as the demand for batteries grows. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates that food and water scarcity driven by climate change will be a growing issue and a potential source of conflict and population displacement. Cheaper solar energy would lower the cost of desalination, which could increase food production and reduce the number of refugees forced to leave some drought-prone food-growing areas. This could be bolstered by the development of hardier crops and more adaptive farming methods using new technologies.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Resource Nationalism
Resource nationalism is state control or dominance of particular resources, especially energy, and the use of this power to achieve national political objectives. In 1978, international companies controlled production from 70% of oil and gas reserves; at present they control only 20% with national or state-dominated oil companies controlling access to 75% of proven conventional reserves.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Cyber security
Resilience in the age of rising cyber breaches
2017
Top 50 Emerging Technologies 2017
Frost & Sullivan
Gene Drive - A genetic tool that can alter—and potentially eliminate—entire species has taken a dramatic leap forward
Research into a genetic engineering technology that can permanently change the traits of a population or even an entire species is progressing rapidly. The approach uses gene drives—genetic elements that pass from parents to unusually high numbers of their offspring, thereby spreading through populations rather quickly. Gene drives occur naturally but can also be engineered, and doing so could be a boon to humanity in many ways. The technology has the potential to stop insects from transmitting malaria and other terrible infections, enhance crop yields by altering pests that attack plants, render corals resistant to environmental stress, and keep invasive plants and animals from destroying ecosystems. Yet investigators are deeply aware that altering or even eliminating a species could have profound consequences. In response, they are developing rules to govern the transfer of gene drives from the laboratory into future field tests and wider use.
2018
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2018
Scientific American
Electrification
Replacing traditional energy sources with electric energy – most notably in vehicles – is being driven by regulatory and technological changes and by growing consumer demand. The growth in electric vehicles sales is expected to be 25 to 30 percent a year to 2025 (see Exhibit 4). A senior executive at a European OEM believes it will affect at least half of the sector’s revenues, both in vehicles and infrastructure. Stricter emission regulations and lower battery costs are all contributing to the flurry of activity in this area.
2018
Disruptive forces in the industrial sectors - Global executive survey
McKinsey
Agile Robots
Replacing the canary in a coalmine
2017
Top 50 Emerging Technologies 2017
Frost & Sullivan
Jobless growth: will robots and computers destroy our jobs?
Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes predicted nearly 80 years ago that the world would face ‘technological unemployment’ ‘due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.’ Most mainstream economists say that the current technical revolution is set to destroy many jobs, but that it will create enough new ones to prevent unemployment from spiralling out of control. This is what happened during previous industrial revolutions. But a growing number of experts believe that Keynes’ prophecy may materialise in the 21st century, although wise government policies may significantly alleviate the process.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Patterns of Labour Mobility
Remittances from migrants in developed states, worth $240 billion per annum, or more than twice the level of international aid, are the largest source of external capital in many developing countries and directly benefit 10% of the global population.224 Over half of the 16 million highly skilled expatriate workers in the 4 main destinations (US, Europe, Canada and Australia) have originated from outside the OECD area.225 Out to 2040, highly capable and skilled individuals, particularly those in niche or scarce areas, will continue to attract substantial rewards for their services and are likely to be mobile within the global economy. This flow of skilled migrants will become more complex and will be affected by the growth of research and entrepreneurial opportunities in developing economies, fluctuating migration policies, and changes to traditional career models in business and academia. This may result in a ‘brain circulation’ rather than a ‘brain drain’, as developing economies continue to rise, and opportunities and safeguards become more predictable; a reverse flow of people to countries of origin may accelerate.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Resurgence of Ideology
Religious belief will retain a significant influence on the vast majority of the global populace especially in the Americas, Africa and increasingly throughout Asia. Tension is likely between religious and secular groups. Strategic drivers such as economic recession, resource scarcity, social change and conflict are likely to contribute to the increasing significance of belief-based groups. Single issues may also emerge that divide opinion and forge identities, such as attitudes toward abortion, gender, the environment, religious law and the teaching of evolution.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Growing dominance of relatively young digital tech corporations
Relatively young digital technology corporations now dominate the world’s top ten companies, with Apple heading the list, followed by Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook18.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)