Trends Identified
The end of the fossil era has begun
The successful global progress of renewable energies, the signal sent by the G7 states from Schloss Elmau in June 2015, the discussion started after the climate protection pledge in the USA and China on an effective global climate regime plus the decreasing use of coal in China and the USA and a spectacular drop in the price of oil since 2014 all lead to the question of whether the beginning of the end of the fossil age has already begun. Besides the reality of climate change, the drivers of this development are the increasingly volatile energy prices, particularly the above-mentioned drop in the price of oil, and a growing global awareness of the health effects of fossil energy generation, leading to growing regional protests.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future has already begun
The energy transition is a global reality. Photovoltaics and wind energy in particular have developed within a few years into new key energies for the 21st century. In 2013 more renewable energy power plants in terms of power generation capacity were set up worldwide than coal, gas and nuclear power plants put together. In terms of investment, the renewables sector is now significantly ahead of traditional energy technologies.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is renewable
The global progress of renewable energies is primarily a result of the almost unbelievable success in reducing the costs. Wind energy plants on land are still the most cost-effective technology for renewable power generation. But in Germany the costs for solar power have dropped by 80 per cent since 2005. Increasing numbers of economy and financial experts are basing their analyses on photovoltaics now becoming the most cost-effective technology for electricity generation in ever more regions of the world. Electricity from the sun and wind will expand its triumphal progress beyond the power sector into the areas of mobility and heating.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is decentralised
Energy generation from wind and sun but also from other renewable energy sources is decentralised. Instead of a few large power plants, in the energy system of the future millions of small plants will generate energy. Many of the stakeholders involved are both producers and consumers of power (prosumers). However, this does not mean that only small power plants will be left. The large systems and plants based on wind and solar power will probably retain their position in the new energy system. But in many poorer regions of the world which have an abundant supply of sun and wind, members of the public as prosumers could bene t long-term from decentralised renewable energy systems.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
The energy future is digital
Energy system of the future characterised by volatile wind and solar renewable energies. The IT and energy sectors are growing together. Only a combination of both will be able to reliably match the energy supply and demand at all times. The rapid cost degression in the storage technology, particularly for small and large battery banks, opens up the possibility of reliable energy supply at any time, finally even with a 100 per cent transfer to renewable energies.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
Deepening income inequality
Inequality is one of the key
challenges of our time. Income inequality specifically is one of the most visible aspects of a broader
and more complex issue, one that entails inequality of opportunity
and extends to gender, ethnicity, disability, and age, among others. Ranking second in last year’s
Outlook, it was identified as the
most signi cant trend of 2015 by
our Network’s experts. This affects
all countries around the world. In developed and developing countries alike, the poorest half of the population often controls less than 10% of its wealth. This is a universal challenge that the whole world must address.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Persistent jobless growth
The term ‘persistent jobless growth’ refers to the phenomenon in which economies exiting recessions demonstrate economic growth while merely maintaining – or, in some cases, decreasing – their level of employment. The scale and signi cance of this problem is evident in the high placing
of this trend, an increase even over last year’s report, when persistent structural employment was ranked as the third most concerning trend.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Lack of leadership
A startling 86% of respondents to the Survey on the Global Agenda agree that we have a leadership crisis in the world today. Why would they say this? Perhaps because the international community has largely failed to address any major global issue in recent years. It has failed to deal with global warming, then barely dealt with the failure of the global economy, which has caused such severe problems in North America and Europe. Meanwhile violence has been left to fester in the Middle East, the region our Survey showed is most affected by, and concerned about this problem. So why are we suffering such a lack of leadership?
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Rising geostrategic competition
In the years following the Cold War, the prevailing view was that the world had moved towards a liberal, democratic consensus. The break-up of the Soviet bloc, the integration of Russia and China into the global economic system and a fresh wave of democratic transitions, from Latin America to Eastern Europe, led many to believe that superpower rivalries were finished. Globalization, the free market and the ‘interdependence’ of countries would make wars less likely, while a greater role was forecast for multilateral bodies like the United Nations in responding to issues that put everyone at risk.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Weakening of representative democracy
Since the global economy crashed
in 2008, there has been an erosion
of trust in political institutions and processes. Citizens now place more faith in companies than in their own leaders, and even then they don’t particularly trust the private sector, with the latest Edelman Trust Barometer showing global trust in business at 58% while trust in government has sunk to 44%. As a Global Shaper of the World Economic Forum, this is an issue that resonates with those of my demographic: the world’s youth.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)