Trends Identified
Populism
For the last seven decades, globalization has marched forward uninterrupted. The Bretton Woods Institutions and multiple subsequent free trade agreements ushered in an era of trade liberalization and global supply chains, trends that helped lift more than one billion people out of poverty. In 2016, that inexorable forward-march hit a major roadblock when back-to-back election results gave us Brexit and President Trump, bringing populism and anti-globalization to the forefront. While populism had been ascendant in numerous countries before this — from Poland and Hungary to Bolivia and the Philippines — these elections brought such political philosophies to two of the world’s largest economies.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
engaged aging
The world is getting older. Life expectancy has gone from 34 in 1913 to 67 at the turn of the millennium. By 2020, for the rst time in human history, the world’s population of people aged 65 and older will exceed the number of children under the
age of ve. And, the World Economic Forum estimates that the global cost of chronic diseases — driven largely by aging populations — will total US$47 trillion* between 2010 and 2030.
If demographics are destiny, it’s not hard to read what those numbers imply for our collective future.
Forget the millennials for a moment. The much bigger disruption is what’s about to happen at the other end of the demographic distribution: aging populations across much of the world. These trends threaten to overwhelm health care and pension systems, draining public coffers and crowding out other societal priorities, from education to defense.
2018
What’s after what’s next? The upside of disruption Megatrends shaping 2018 and beyond
EY
Digital Future
Fueled by the convergence of social, mobile, cloud, big data and growing demand for anytime anywhere access to information, technology is disrupting all areas of the business enterprise. Disruption is taking place across all industries and in all geographies. Enormous opportunities exist for enterprises to take advantage of connected devices enabled by the “Internet of Things” to capture vast amounts of information, enter new markets, transform existing products, and introduce new business and delivery models. However, the evolution of the digital enterprise also presents significant challenges, including new competition, changing customer engagement and business models, unprecedented transparency, privacy concerns and cybersecurity threats.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Entrepreneurship rising
Technology is also changing the ways that people work, and is increasingly enabling machines and software to substitute for humans. Enterprises and individuals who can seize the opportunities offered by digital advances stand to gain significantly, while those who cannot may lose everything. The growth and prosperity of all economies, rapid-growth and mature, remains highly dependent on entrepreneurial activity. Entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of economic growth — they provide a source of income and employment for themselves, create employment for others, produce new and innovative products or services, and drive greater upstream and downstream value-chain activities. While some entrepreneurial activity around the world is still driven by necessity, “high-impact” entrepreneurship, once largely confined to mature markets, is now an essential driver of economic expansion in rapid-growth markets. In some cases, these high-impact entrepreneurs are building innovative and scalable enterprises that capitalize on local needs and serve as role models for new entrepreneurs. The face of entrepreneurship is also changing — across the world, entrepreneurs are increasingly young and/or female. Many of these new enterprises are digital from birth. Access to funding remains the primary obstacle for entrepreneurs from all markets. The public and private sector each have an important role to play in creating entrepreneurial ecosystems that, in addition to funding, are essential to promoting entrepreneurial success.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Global marketplace
Faster growth rates and favorable demographics in key rapid-growth markets will continue to be a feature of the next decade or so. The gulf between “mature” and “rapid-growth” countries continues to shrink. A new tier of emerging nations, driven by their own nascent middle classes, will draw global attention. Innovation will increasingly take place in rapid-growth markets, with Asia surfacing as a major hub. In the global marketplace, the war for talent will become increasingly fierce, necessitating greater workforce diversity to secure competitive advantage. The economies of the world will remain highly interdependent through trade, investment and financial system linkages, driving the need for stronger global policy coordination among nations and resilient supply chains for companies operating in this environment. At the same time, domestic interests will continue to clash and compete with the forces of global integration. Pushback and opposition to global integration manifests itself in various economic, political and cultural forms, including trade and currency protectionism, the imposition of sanctions to achieve political aims, anti-globalization protests, as well as the strengthening of nationalistic, religious and ethnic movements around the world.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Urban World
The number and scale of cities continues to grow across the globe — driven by rapid urbanization in emerging markets and continued urbanization in mature markets. The United Nations (UN) reports that 54% of the world’s population currently live in cities, and by 2050, this proportion will increase to 66%. In order to harness the economic benefi ts of urbanization, policy-makers and the private sector must do effective planning and attract sustained investment in railroads, highways, bridges, ports, airports, water, power, energy, telecommunications and other types of infrastructure. Effective policy responses to the challenges that cities face, including climate change and poverty, will be essential to making cities of the future competitive, sustainable and resilient.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Resourceful planet
Absolute population growth, economic development and more middle-class consumers will drive increasing global demand for natural resources — both renewable and non-renewable. While the world’s supply of non-renewable resources is technically finite, new technologies continue to impact the future supply picture by allowing access to formerly hard-to-reach and valuable oil, gas and strategic mineral reserves. The application of new technologies, as well as the shifting supply environment, will drive business model adaptation and innovation in multiple sectors — as well as impact the geopolitical balance of power. At the same time, natural resources must be more effectively managed, particularly from an environmental impact perspective. Growing concern over environmental degradation, securing strategic resources and the fate of our food and water supply are indicative of the fact that protecting and restoring the planet is a critical future imperative. Governments, societies and businesses must work in tandem to develop more sustainable approaches to the task of achieving economic growth while leveraging natural resource inputs.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Health reimagined
Health care — which already accounts for 10% of global GDP — is embarking on a once-in-a-lifetime transformation. Health systems and players are under increasing cost pressure — driving them to seek more sustainable approaches, including incentives that emphasize value. These cost pressures are exacerbated by changing demographics, rising incomes in rapid-growth markets and an imminent chronic-disease epidemic. An explosion in big data and mobile health technologies is enabling real-time information creation and analysis. Companies beyond health care as traditionally defined are entering the fray, providing new sources of competition and partnering. These trends are starting to drive a fundamentally different approach — moving beyond the delivery of health care (by traditional health care companies in traditional ways, i.e., “sick care”) to the management of health (by diverse sets of players, with more focus on healthy behaviors, prevention and real-time care). Success, in other words, demands that we reimagine our approach to health.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
EU- wide internet of things initiative
The number of IoT connections within the EU is estimated to increase from approximately 1.8 million in 2013 to almost 6 billion in 2020. IoT revenues (including the value of system shipments, devices, IoT technologies and correlated IT services) should increase from more than €307 billion in 2013 to more than €1,180 billion in 2020. IoT is expected to impact all economic sectors, with faster take-up in manufacturing and consumer packaged goods. The digital market being the most competitive market for IoT products and services, it should be equipped with appropriate open and high level standards applicable EU wide and with appropriate so and hard law initiatives ensuring a high level of trust in IoT devices and seamless access to the public and private sector.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Brain-inspired technologies
Understanding the human brain is one of the greatest challenges facing 21st century science. Advances in this understanding can help us gain profound insights into what makes us human, develop new treatments for brain disease and build revolutionary new computing and robotic technologies. Modern ICT has now brought these goals within sight.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)