Trends Identified
'It’s not the big fish that eat the small...It’s the fast that eat the slow.'
In the past two decades, the world has been experiencing a period of unprecedented transition in political, social, economic and environmental areas mainly driven by an exponential change in technology. The rate of change in many aspects of human society is expected to continue creating both opportunities and perils. A recently introduced phrase- 'a black elephant.' 2 3 - is used to describe existing and foreseeable problems of great magnitude and complexity. There are many black elephants: failed and failing states, global warming, water scarcity, mass immigration, income inequality, and rising global powers challenging the international order. Additionally, the growing role of non-state actors and super- empowered individuals in domestic and international affairs has increased the complexity of addressing these black elephants in the strategic environment.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Tackling Uncertainty Head-on
When planning for any organisation’s future, decision makers are faced with an increasingly complex and dynamic external environment. For some elements of this environment, such as demographics, it is possible to identify broad trends; while others, such as the turbulent geopolitics, are more challenging to predict. In considering an uncertain future and how best to position the organisation, scenario planning is a useful tool. By creating a series of ‘different futures’, based on the most significant but uncertain forces shaping our environment, decision makers are encouraged to re-examine their own assumptions about the future. The process results in individuals stepping away from the so often reactive, incremental strategic planning – a natural response to uncertainty – in favour of a more forward looking, proactive approach.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Leadership in Europe
Leadership matters: hundreds of books are published every month with the word leadership in the title. Yet there no universal theory of leadership or agreement on how good, bad, better or great leadership can be evaluated or measured. One the one hand, societies everywhere are searching for leaders and leadership systems that can deliver realistic hope. One the other hand, advances in education, the spread of democracy, prosperity gains and social media have contributed to a diffusion of power and authority within societies and across the world. The turnover of political and business leaders in democratic societies seems to be occurring at an accelerating pace – shaped by and contributing to structural short-termism.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Knowledge and Democracy
Our democracies have a common life – but there is much disorder in it – the cultivation of suspicion towards foreigners, the manipulation of fear and the knowing disregard for truth. If our democracies were in healthier shape, we could face the challenge of resurgent authoritarianism with confidence, but there are few democracies, whether in the Central European region or elsewhere, that are in good shape. There is so much inequality and injustice; so much corruption and self- dealing, so many unanswered attacks on the independence of institutions, from the courts to the press.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Minimising Vulnerability and Fostering Resilience: An Investment for the Future of Europe
The ESPAS Report Global Trends to 2030 noted that 'The world is becoming steadily more complex, more challenging and also more insecure'. Since the publication of the Report in 2015, the sense of uncertainty has become even stronger in Europe and elsewhere. The referendum on Brexit, the 2016 US elections, as well as the political conditions in several European countries have demonstrated the risks that even well-established institutional systems can face due to a growing sense of uncertainty and dissatisfaction among citizens with current policies.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Role of Think Tanks
Think tanks play a fundamental role in shaping policy agendas. They mobilise expertise and put forward evidence. They push for innovative change and they build networks and communities through which they nurture and spread ideas and catalyse action. The current environment of fast-paced transformations and increasingly complex and intertwined challenges at local, national and global levels would seem to create a perfect backdrop for think tanks to engage in dynamically, offering creative, pragmatic and actionable policy solutions on tangible issues.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Universities and Evidence-Based Research
Among the European Union’s best assets are its highly- educated population, its universities, and its research capacity. Europe’s universities have, through the course of their rich history contributed hugely to modern thought and to modern science. They have helped shape the world that we know today. Past glories will not sustain us forever. Universities need to change in order to serve the needs of tomorrow’s economy and society. This is not in debate. There is a need for more skills - and more research- in science and technology, for example. Universities will continue to have a central role in the drive for technological innovation.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
A European Citizens’ Foundational Assembly
Democracy is in tatters. In a period of rapid change, in particular of the scale and width of interdependencies among societies and with biosphere, institutions and methods of governance, including representative democracy, have shown great inertia, both conceptually and institutionally. This means that we attempt to manage present and coming societal challenges with a conceptual and institutional framework created centuries ago. Talking about governance means adopting a much broader historical perspective, looking for general principles which should guide our badly needed quest for a governance and a democracy appropriate to our needs.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Internet as Subject of Democratic Engagement
Nearly all democratic theories characterise democracy as an open-ended, necessarily incomplete and dynamic project. Its concrete form varies over time and across regions; and the scope of self-determination may shrink or expand even if its legal framework may remain unaltered. However, when we think of the relationship between democracy and the Internet, we often focus on rather traditional forms of democratic engagement and control. This may concern, for example, new opportunities for participation or more transparency and accountability in political decision- making. Yet, if we regard the Internet as a mere tool for political action, we risk overlooking that and how digital technologies and democratic practices mutually influence each other and thereby create something new.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Elephant in the Room: the Many Dimensions of Inequality in Europe
The gap between rich and poor has widened. Austerity programmes enacted by a series of EU governments since 2009, with the aim of reducing budget deficits, have had a disproportionate effect on those with lower incomes and exacerbated income differences. 1 in 4 Europeans are estimated to be at risk of poverty and social exclusion in the EU. Recent publications (e.g. Branko Milanovic’s Elephant chart) suggest that lower middle classes in rich countries have been one of the most prominent losers of globalisation in the past couple of decades. And they fuel expectations that inequality will further increase in years to come.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)