Trends Identified
Advanced autonomous systems
Advanced autonomous systems are on the rise: Algorithmic trading with no human in the loop already accounts for around 50% of all stock-market trading, and some parts of the car manufacturing process have automation levels of above 90%. These systems will gain more capabilities in the future enabling their widespread use in many market domains. While these systems make a strong contribution to productivity and can perform jobs which are dull, dirty and dangerous for humans, there is a danger of them eliminating a large number of jobs in a relatively short time frame. In addition, they pose a challenge for established legal concepts such as liability.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Models and data in decision-making
We will have ever more accurate description and models of many technical and natural phenomena; we might even have better models of human activity (behavioural models and data). We will have an ever increasing range of data on all aspects of policy and societal decisions. Citizens will be ever more involved in decisions processes in society, redefining the role of experts and even policy makers. We need to analyse opportunities and pitfalls from these developments in time. The ultimate use of models will most likely be as tools for orientation rather than as tools for prediction.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Cyber security
Shopping media, and publishing, but also democratic processes such as elections, are moving online. This can only work with a high level of trust. Furthermore, the same holds for many future sectorial infrastructures, processes, and resources, like sewage systems or smart buildings, that will be adaptive, distributed, collaborative, and efficiently controlled. They will depend on ICT and cloud infrastructure and services that must be reliable, predictable and always available, ensuring confidentiality and protection of privacy and being capable to react to cyber threats in real time.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Diverging global population trends
Across the world, the basic determinants of population size and structure — fertility, mortality and migration — have been fundamentally altered by the processes of social and economic development. As a result, the global population doubled to 7 billion in the last half century and will continue growing fast in coming decades, although regional trends differ markedly. In advanced economies, populations are ageing and in some cases reducing in size. At the other extreme, populations in the least developed countries are expanding rapidly. Migration is also affecting the distribution and structure of populations, as people move in search of higher earnings or to escape conflict or environmental degradation.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Living in an urban world
Urbanisation is an integral aspect of development. As countries transition from primarily agricultural economies, the shift to cities offers substantial productivity gains. Jobs and earnings in urban settings create strong incentives for internal migration, often reinforced by government policies and environmental degradation. Only later in economic development do urban-rural disparities begin to dissipate, easing the pressure for further urbanisation. Together, these drivers have brought extraordinary changes to the geographical distribution of humanity during the last century. Whereas just 10–15 % of the global population lived in urban areas in the early 20th century, that figure had risen to 50 % by 2010 (WBGU, 2011) and is projected to reach 67 % by 2050 (UN, 2012). Almost all of that growth is expected to occur in today's developing regions, with urban populations there increasing from 2.6 billion in 2010 to 5.1 billion in 2050.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The world is currently experiencing a major shift in health problems related to economic development and changing lifestyles. Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (such as HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). Non-communicable diseases are also the most important cause of death in the world and are typically associated with developed-world lifestyles. But although communicable diseases are globally in decline, they still pose a significant health burden, especially in the developing world. A third factor in changing health conditions is the persistent threat of pandemics.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Accelerating technological change
The pace of technological change is accelerating. The shifts in technological paradigms that once were separated by centuries or millennia — such as the development of agriculture or the industrial revolutions based on steam and then electric power — are now occurring within a single lifetime. Indeed, the pace at which new technologies are being adopted by the market and used in society has rocketed over the past century and a half. In the early 1900s, it took more than 30 years for a quarter of the US population to adopt telephones and radios — but more recently, the World Wide Web reached this level in only seven years.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Continued economic growth?
The financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 significantly reduced economic output in many developed countries, particularly in Europe. While its continuing impacts are apparent in less optimistic long-term economic projections for Europe, virtually all mainstream outlook studies foresee economic expansion globally in the coming decades as Asia's huge populations continue their shift to Western patterns of production and consumption.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
An increasingly multipolar world
Globally, economic power is shifting. In the last century or two, a relatively small number of countries, together accounting for about a fifth of the world population, have dominated global economic production and consumption. Today, a significant rebalancing of power is under way, with Asian countries coming to the fore. Economic and demographic projections suggest that the influence of today's wealthiest economies will continue to lessen as other countries and regional power blocs become increasingly important — economically, politically and diplomatically. As global interdependence and trade expands, Europe has opportunities to benefit from improving its resource efficiency and knowledge-based economy.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Intensified global competition for resources
As they grow, economies tend to use more resources — both renewable biological resources (see GMT 8) and non-renewable stocks of minerals, metals and fossil fuels (addressed in this chapter). Industrial and technological developments, and changing consumption patterns associated with growing prosperity all contribute to this increase in demand.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)