Trends Identified
Renewable energy technologies
Using smart grids, big data and IoT technologies can help to reduce energy consumption, balance energy demand and supply, and ensure and improve the management of energy distribution, while increasing the role of renewable sources by allowing households to feed surplus energy from solar panels or wind turbines into the grid. The real-time information provided by smart grids helps utility companies to respond better to changes in demand, power supply, costs and emissions, and to avert major power outages (UNCTAD, 2015d:23). Zenatix, a Delhibased start-up, for example, uses smart meters and temperature sensors to help households and offices reduce energy consumption through message-based alerts, saving Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology nearly $30,000 annually.23 Renewable energy technologies can provide electricity in remote and isolated rural areas inaccessible to centralized grid systems (UNCTAD, 2017c); and costs have declined dramatically, especially for solar power, which is now cost-competitive with coal and natural gas. The cost of solar cells has dropped by a factor of more than 100 in the last 40 years, from $76.67/watt in 1977 to $0.029/kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2017 (Clark, 2017). Solar energy is now the cheapest generation technology in many parts of the world.24
2018
Technology and Innovation Report 2018
UNCTAD
Satellites and drones
Communication satellites have been used for Internet access in rural areas and developing countries since the early days of the Internet, and the industry has remained viable as a result of technical progress in launch technology (public and private), antennas, solar power, radios and other electronics, as well as tuning of TCP/IP protocols to account for the quartersecond latency due to the orbital altitude. It has been suggested that these technologies have progressed to the point where high-altitude platform stations (HAPSs) and lower orbit satellites are now viable as well. HAPSs are non-rigid airships, drones or balloons that hover or circulate around 15–30 km in the stratosphere (UNCTAD, 2014a). HAPSs have lower transmission delay (latency), but their signal cover (footprint) tends to be lower compared to other technologies (ibid.:38). An example of a project that offers broadband Internet using satellite communications is the Google Project Loon (ibid.), which uses HAPSs to create an aerial wireless network with up to 3G-like speeds.
2018
Technology and Innovation Report 2018
UNCTAD
Blockchain
A blockchain is a form of exchange that is permanent and transparent between parties, which does not rely on a central authority (Mulligan, 2017). The premise of the exchange is that each party on a blockchain has access and means to verify the entire database. Further, all transactions are visibly recorded across a distributed peer-to-peer network (Mainelli, 2017). Applications include the following: (a) “Smart contracts”25 are a form of a trusted third party which can automate transactions such as licencing, revenue collection and social transfers, significantly lowering costs. (b) approximately 1.5 billion people who lack it, which would otherwise leave them vulnerable to legal, political, social and economic exclusion.26 Blockchain has been used in identity management, which aids in validating individual identities. For example, Estonia offers citizens a digital identity card based on blockchain, which allows citizens to access public, financial and social services, as well as pay taxes.27 (c) Blockchain is increasingly being used in land and property registration, to validate government related property transactions, reduce paperwork and potentially to reduce property fraud. Examples of countries that are using blockchain for land registration are Ghana,28 Georgia and Sweden.29 (d) Blockchain has been piloted with WFP30 through a humanitarian aid project of cash and food assistance transactions in Jordanian and Syrian refugee camps. The aims are to reduce overhead, improve security and speed up aid in remote areas. (e) In trade finance, which is characterized by many stakeholders and largely paper-based documentation, blockchain can simplify processes, reduce settlement times, errors, fraud and disputes, and increase trust between all parties to a transaction. A group of banks has partnered with blockchain service provider IBM on implementing a new blockchain-based global system for trade finance. Similarly, IBM has teamed with another set of banks to build and host a new blockchain-based system for providing SMEs with trade finance.
2018
Technology and Innovation Report 2018
UNCTAD
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Access to technology that enables the production and distribution of WMD is likely to increase. Many states will feel that they require the prestige and deterrent value of WMD systems to reinforce their regional power.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Non-State Actors
MNCs, large non-governmental organisations, as well as organised criminal groups, all work across the global stage. However, the authority of the state is likely to remain dominant. Non-State Actors are only likely to gain a similar degree of influence in areas where governance has broken down or is particularly fragile. Large MNCs, such as Gazprom, are increasingly state-owned and controlled, and other large corporations will have to work within the state based legislative framework if they are to gain access to resources and markets. While media and communication corporations may become ubiquitous global brands, the control by the state of the physical environment and operating space mean that it is unlikely that these corporations will have the means, methods or opportunities to usurp the power of the state. Non-governmental organisations, especially those associated with particular interests, will play niche roles and have influence within liberal democracies, but it is unlikely that their approaches of utilising the media, direct action and lobbying will have much impact on more authoritarian states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Pace of Development
Trend analysis indicates that the most substantial technological developments are likely to be in the areas of: ICT; sensor/network technology; behavioural and cognitive science; biotechnology; materials; and the production, storage and distribution of energy. Advances in nanotechnologies will underpin many breakthroughs. Developments in individual areas are likely to be evolutionary, but where disciplines interact, such as in the combination of cognitive science and ICT to produce advanced decision-support tools, developments may be revolutionary, resulting in the greatest opportunities for a novel or breakthrough application.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Commercial Imperative
Global economic growth, resource pressure in its widest sense and increasing socio-economic dependency ratios will fuel demand; creating opportunities for innovation and investment. Development is increasingly likely to be directed towards commercial imperatives. For example, business enterprises accounted for 68% of OECD Research and Development (R&D) expenditure.233 This aspect will drive innovators to identify maximum applications and markets for their discoveries, with interdisciplinary R&D likely to lead to the most revolutionary outcomes.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Research and Development
Increasing volumes of R&D will take place outside established centres of research, with rapid proliferation and expansion of information and research facilities in developing economies. The academic sector will become increasingly transnational as information technologies allow virtual collaborations. This is likely to lead to a decline and possibly even a reversal in the technological dominance of the West, with China and India poised to become technology leaders in some fields. Intellectual property and commercial exclusivity are likely to be under constant pressure from inadvertent disclosure, penetration and espionage. Under these conditions, knowledge and innovation will become more diffuse and internationalised, accelerating the development process.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Information and Communications Technology
By 2040 it is likely that the majority of the global population will find it difficult to ‘turn the outside world off’. ICT is likely to be so pervasive that people could be permanently connected to local or global networks, with inherent challenges to civil liberties. Even amongst those who make an explicit life-style choice to remain detached, choosing to be disconnected may be considered suspicious behaviour. There are a number of socio-economic trends that will lead to pervasive ICT including: a widening global economy, greater cultural assimilation and awareness of technology, and a steady reduction in the unit cost of ICT associated goods. The pervasiveness of ICT will be enhanced by the advent of more common functionality, supported by global service provision and developments in infrastructure, such as cloud computing.235 The related trend of convergence will be driven by manufacturers trying to find a competitive advantage over their rivals by merging more functions into a limited range of smaller devices. ICT investment will also be driven by new business models that help sustain the insertion of new technologies. Significant changes are likely to be observed in applications, mobile devices, and tailored information and interaction modes rather than in infrastructure. Constrained investment in infrastructure will be perceived as a factor that stifles innovation in the developed world, but arguably less so in the developing world, which has the potential to ‘leap-frog’ a generation of fixed infrastructure technologies. In addition, there will be far-reaching improvements in processing power and data storage236 resulting from innovations such as spintronics237 in silicon. Improved architectures enabled by advances in grid computing, photonics and possibly quantum computing (which may increase processing capabilities by 100 billion times), are also likely to lead to more intensive, diverse and perverse applications. Wearable and implanted wireless ICT is likely to become available to all that can afford it.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence