Trends Identified
Regeneration of lost or diseased tissue
Organ donor wait-lists and black market organ trading may be things of the past for all but the most complicated organs, such as the heart. Growing or 3D printing of organs from a patient’s own cells will allow for faster recovery without rejection. Even nerve damage may become surmountable with the assistance of BCI and robotics. As a consequence, we should anticipate that the line between natural versus enhanced human capability will blur.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Slow shift in the types of resources that are scarce, and the areas that are at risk
Resource scarcity is a potential source of conflict. Advances in synthetic biology could reduce pressure on some scarce natural resources by increasing the security of energy, material and food sources. In parallel, new and different minerals may become scarce. For example, lithium reserves may come under pressure as the demand for batteries grows. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates that food and water scarcity driven by climate change will be a growing issue and a potential source of conflict and population displacement. Cheaper solar energy would lower the cost of desalination, which could increase food production and reduce the number of refugees forced to leave some drought-prone food-growing areas. This could be bolstered by the development of hardier crops and more adaptive farming methods using new technologies.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Open-source warfare grows
“Do-it-yourself” surveillance and weapon systems will likely become more common, enabling new kinds of crimes and conflict. For example, the Switchblade Drone is lethal at short distances and fits in a small backpack. New developments in sensors, robotics and nanotechnology could lead to the more widespread use of remote sensors in surveillance, intelligence and warfare. Miniature unmanned aerial, surface and aquatic vehicles and devices – controlled either remotely or autonomously – are expected to become more prevalent. These will be smaller, cheaper and more widely available than today. Open-source knowledge may lead to widely distributed cyber-warfare capabilities. In addition, do-it-yourself enthusiasts may use synthetic biology to produce and release harmful substances into the environment – either accidentally or on purpose. In all these cases, technology originally created to enhance security may become the threat. In response, pre-programmed nanodevices and robots will likely create security networks and sensing surfaces that could identify threats such as nano-enabled weapons, viruses and poisons.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of public anonymity
Constant monitoring and surveillance will become increasingly prevalent through the use of nano and biosensors, brain-computer interfaces, and artificial intelligence (AI). Smart devices will routinely know a person’s movements and location to within 10 centimetres, which will make it possible to infer a person’s activity, behaviour, interactions and relationships. This will make it increasingly difficult for individuals to go unnoticed, as AI can identify people from face and gait, and even determine the behaviour pa erns of those without smart devices by looking at those who do. These devices will increasingly be used to identify, authenticate and track the movement of food, goods and materials in value chains. Constant monitoring and surveillance could also enhance public health and environmental and personal security. For example, in emergency situations, sensors, AI and machine-to-machine communication could make it easier to locate people and identify their needs. As privacy becomes a major issue, there may be a need to rethink the balance between public and private interests and liberties.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Home is where the ‘brain’ is
The “internet of things” will have considerable impact on homes, but at its core will be the need to make sense of all the information being generated. Homes will
be able to combine, interpret and relay the information coming in from a variety of new sensors
in appliances, fixtures and fittings, information that ranges from specific needs and monitoring of occupants, to basic system diagnostics. Artificial intelligence (AI) and the “internet of things” will move us from the age of the home computer to the age of the “computer home.”
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Interaction will change
New technologies will allow traditional in-home activities to also happen virtually. The seamless management of data and systems, enabled by AI and new materials, will change how homes look. It is likely that new interactive surfaces will appear throughout the home that will allow occupants to monitor and manage household systems and communicate with others. Over time, as technology evolves, traditional building materials and fittings will be displaced by new ones that will integrate with a home’s AI and sensors. These sensors will share information remotely with smart phones and smart vehicles, allowing people to administer their house remotely.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Where does private end and public begin?
By allowing coordination with systems outside the home, the line between home and work and between public and private will continue to blur. Home systems that sync with external systems (such those at work or school) will allow occupants to work, learn and relax in one locale. But such systems could also sync with neighbourhoods, regions, municipalities, utilities and more to support decision-making about land-use planning, infrastructure, health outcomes and development.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The construction of 3D-printed homes
Innovations in robotics, AI and building materials may change both the look and the construction of new homes. The advent of large-scale 3D printing means that homes could be built more rapidly and with nano-enhanced materials, making them even stronger and more energy-efficient than they are now. It could also mean lower costs and greater flexibility in home and urban design.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The autonomous home
The trend toward decentralization of energy and other infrastructure will make homes more autonomous, but will make the need for coordination among systems even more crucial. Distributed energy systems will result in homes that can both contribute to and draw from the grid, but such innovations will be dependent on advances in energy production and storage. Unconstrained by traditional urban services, new homes could proliferate in areas well beyond urban planning control.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Fewer, but more productive, workers
Artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, data analytics and robots will drive significant change in many workplaces in Canada and around the world.
These technologies will transform many jobs where a routine physical or mental task is repeated;
AI will increasingly handle the routine, while workers will be free to focus on the exceptions that AI cannot handle. AI and data analytics will also increase productivity and the demand for non-routine and professional skills by reframing the way we design, coordinate, manage, deliver and assess products and services. Sensors will provide workers with a much broader picture of the processes they manage, improving efficiency and client satisfaction. Cheaper, mass-produced robots and autonomous delivery vehicles will change the flow, timing and flexibility of work. Working conditions and on-the-job safety will greatly improve for dangerous professions, largely through the use of sensors, drones and robots in fields such as mining, policing and rescue missions.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada