Trends Identified
Volatile Energy Markets
Energy supply will struggle to meet growing demand leading to upward pressure on prices. When supply and demand for energy are closely matched, rapid increases in demand to which supply can not react quickly can lead to large variations in price; therefore markets are likely to be volatile.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing Patterns of Behaviour
Growing material prosperity is likely to result in behavioural changes with associated effects, such as changes in consumption, diet and health. The proportion of the world population considered to be middle-income has increased rapidly over the last 30 years and, out to 2040, may increase by a further 80 million per annum if rapid economic development continues in countries such as India, China and Brazil. Consumption of food, water, energy and minerals will remain positively correlated with increasing prosperity despite efforts towards conservation, recycling and environmentalism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Environmental Impact
Water and air pollution, and soil degradation through acidification, contamination, desertification, erosion, or salination will remain problems, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is likely to become prized as research into the extent and variability of different forms of life yield significant technological and health advances. On land, diversity will be reduced as a side-effect of mass agricultural production techniques, industrialisation, urbanisation and through continued erosion of natural habitats, especially tropical rainforests.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Geophysical Risks
Between 1980 and 2000, 75% of the world’s population lived in areas affected by a natural disaster and, since 1998, around 500,000 people have been killed by earthquake activity alone,195 with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami accounting for over 40% of this total. Population growth, urbanisation in geophysically unstable regions, variable construction standards, and limitations of predictive and warning mechanisms suggest that casualty figures of this magnitude will be typical out to 2040. Demands on land usage will lead to increasing habitation in areas of significant risk, such as those susceptible to volcanic and seismic activity or low-lying coastal areas subject to inundation by tsunami. The net result is likely to be an increase in the scale of humanitarian crises and associated migration pressures.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Resource Nationalism
Resource nationalism is state control or dominance of particular resources, especially energy, and the use of this power to achieve national political objectives. In 1978, international companies controlled production from 70% of oil and gas reserves; at present they control only 20% with national or state-dominated oil companies controlling access to 75% of proven conventional reserves.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Exploitation of Extreme Environments
The search for alternative sources of energy, minerals, food and water, enabled by the assured transfer and access to information, will become more urgent. Consequently the exploration of extreme environments such as: space; the Polar regions; the deep ocean; and deep underground regions is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Technological Innovation
Diminishing availability of low cost, easily accessible hydrocarbon resources, and the need to reduce carbon emissions, will stimulate intensive research to find alternative forms of energy, although a rapid decline in hydrocarbon use is unlikely.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Growth
Over the last 30 years, the global economy has grown at a rate of 3- 4% and output has increased 4-fold.199 There has been regional variation: the newly- industrialised Asian economies have raised output 12-fold, while the G7 group of industrialised states have had a 5-fold increase. However, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced only a 3-fold increase, despite more than doubling its population and potential workforce during that time.200 Growth in the global economy will continue, accompanied by general improvements in material well-being. However, economic growth, combined with the continuing rise in the global population, will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals, and energy. When allied to demographic ageing and environmental and political challenges, the likely result is a reduction in global economic growth rates. This growth will continue to be uneven, fluctuating over time and between regions, with sub-Saharan Africa likely to lag behind other regions primarily because of governance challenges, linked to endemic corruption.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Economic Globalisation
Globalisation, based on persistent technological innovation, is likely to remain the most significant driver of long- term economic change. Nevertheless, liberal trade and investment policies that have accelerated globalisation since the end of World War II will be subject to periodic challenge, and may be temporarily reversed.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence