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Religion: 'Secularists will flatter to deceive'

Over the next two and a half decades, it is quite possible that those Brits who follow a religion will continue both to fall in number and also become more orthodox or fundamentalist. Similarly, organised religions will increasingly work together to counter what they see as greater threats to their interests – creeping agnosticism and secularity. Another 10 years of failure by the Anglican church to face down the African-led traditionalists over women bishops and gay clerics could open the question of disestablishment of the Church of England. The country's politicians, including an increasingly gay-friendly Tory party, may find it difficult to see how state institutions can continue to be associated with an image of sexism and homophobia. I predict an increase in debate around the tension between a secular agenda which says it is merely seeking to remove religious privilege, end discrimination and separate church and state, and organised orthodox religion which counterclaims that this would amount to driving religious voices from the public square. Despite two of the three party leaders being professed atheists, the secular tendency in this country still flatters to deceive. There is, at present, no organised, nonreligious, rationalist movement. In contrast, the forces of organised religion are better resourced, more organised and more politically influential than ever before.

2011

20 predictions for the next 25 years

The Guardian

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Theatre: 'Cuts could force a new political fringe'

The theatre will weather the recent cuts. Some companies will close and the repertoire of others will be safe and cautious; the art form will emerge robust in a decade or so. The cuts may force more young people outside the existing structures back to an unsubsidised fringe and this may breed different types of work that will challenge the subsidised sector. Student marches will become more frequent and this mobilisation may breed a more politicised generation of theatre artists. We will see old forms from the 1960s reemerge (like agit prop) and new forms will be generated to communicate ideology and politics. More women will emerge as directors, writers and producers. This change is already visible at the flagship subsidised house, the National Theatre, where the repertoire for bigger theatres like the Lyttelton already includes directors like Marianne Elliott and Josie Rourke, and soon the Cottesloe will start to embrace the younger generation – Polly Findlay and Lyndsey Turner.

2011

20 predictions for the next 25 years

The Guardian

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Storytelling: 'Eventually there'll be a Twitter classic'

Are you reading fewer books? I am and reading books is sort of my job. It's just that with the multifarious delights of the internet, spending 20 hours in the company of one writer and one story needs motivation. It's worth doing, of course; like exercise, its benefits are many and its pleasures great. And yet everyone I know is doing it less. And I can't see that that trend will reverse. That's the bad news. Twenty-five years from now, we'll be reading fewer books for pleasure. But authors shouldn't fret too much; e-readers will make it easier to impulse-buy books at 4am even if we never read past the first 100 pages. And stories aren't becoming less popular – they're everywhere, from adverts to webcomics to fictional tweets – we're only beginning to explore the exciting possibilities of web-native literature, stories that really exploit the fractal, hypertextual way we use the internet. My guess is that, in 2035, stories will be ubiquitous. There'll be a tube-based soap opera to tune your iPod to during your commute, a tale (incorporating on-sale brands) to enjoy via augmented reality in the supermarket. Your employer will bribe you with stories to focus on your job. Most won't be great, but then most of everything isn't great – and eventually there'll be a Twitter-based classic.

2011

20 predictions for the next 25 years

The Guardian

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Climate change and planetary boundaries

As evidence mounts that the impacts of human-caused climate change are already upon us, the future of international development cannot be considered in isolation from the need to adapt. Furthermore the Earth’s natural systems are under enormous pressure, with huge consequences for the world’s most vulnerable people. As UNep’s 2012 Global Environment Outlook assessment concludes: “Scientific evidence shows that Earth systems are being pushed towards their bio-physical limits, with evidence that these limits are close and have in some cases been exceeded”.

2015