Trends Identified
The redistribution of geostrategic power.
The predominance of NATO and the West is likely to be increasingly challenged by emerging and resurgent powers.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Use of power politics.
The importance of NATO has increased for collective defence of the Euro-Atlantic region as it is the main framework that maintains a robust and an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Non-state actor influence in domestic and international affairs.
Non-state actors are expected to exert greater influence over national governments and international institutions and their role is likely to expand.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Challenges to governance
Emerging powers are increasingly challenging establishedglobalgovernanceinstitutionsandrequestinggreaterroles.Existing governance structures, particularly in weak and failing states, are not sufficiently addressing the requirements of the broader population.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Public discontent/disaffection and polarization
In western countries, risks such as undermined legitimacy of the government mandate, political impasse and the difficulty of implementing reforms and social polarization are likely to be increased.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Asymmetric demographic change.
The worldwide ageing populations will cause major challenges for some economies and government budgets. Gender inequality will further destabilize demographic change. However, the population in countries with a high fertility rate will remain relatively young, as seen in Africa, thus creating a youth bulge and potential for migration.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Increasing urbanization.
Urbanization is increasing at different rates globally, with the highest growth rates in the least developed parts of the world thus creating the challenge of providing adequate basic services and a functioning infrastructure to ensure a minimum quality of life for citizens.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Fractured and/or polarized societies.
Polarization of societies has become a worldwide phenomenon; however, western developed nations are particularly vulnerable due to increased empowerment of individuals. Polarization can also exist between countries.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Increasingly connected human networks.
Human networks are expected to continue to be increasingly decentralized thereby allowing unforeseeable threats
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Rate of technology advance
The advances in technology and innovation accelerate as they are fuelled by continued exponential increases in supporting computing power and advances in augmented intelligence
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO