Trends Identified
Militarization following industrialization
As economic power tilts toward Asia, political and military power will shift as well. In China, where defense spending has trended upward in recent years, both in dollar terms and as a proportion of GDP. The stepped up spending is prompting China’s neighbors to respond with bigger defense budgets, increasing the risk of conflict over shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Growing output of primary inputs
Growing demand among more nations for oil and natural gas, grains and proteins, fresh water and extracted ores, such as copper, aluminum and rare earth metals, will create price volatility and transient shortages of a few of these commodities over the coming decade. Investment in conservation measures, alternative supplies and technologies will increase in some areas, though new fossil fuel sources will reduce economic incentives to invest in alternative energy. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $3 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Developing human capital
The massive population shift from farm to factory has altered the social landscape in the fast-growing emerging economies, but social infrastructure has not kept pace. Broadening access to education and improving its quality over the coming decade will be crucial if those economies will successfully navigate the transition to a higher value-added service and technology-based economy. Likewise, building a basic healthcare delivery system and weaving a stronger social safety net will absorb a far higher proportion of investment than in the past. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $2 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Keeping the wealthy healthy
Aging populations in the advanced economies, more and better medical treatments, and changes in payment systems to make healthcare spending more efficient will spur innovation and reform. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $4 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Everything the same, but nicer
Innovation will increasingly come in new forms beyond novel technologies like iPads and Twitter. Look for businesses to invest more heavily in “soft innovations,” which will offer affluent customers premium products and services as substitutes for common consumer purchases, better products commanding higher prices and a greater variety of niche products. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $5 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Prepping for the next big thing
Innovations tend to cluster in waves, and five potential platform technologies—nanotechnology, genomics, artificial intelligence, robotics and ubiquitous connectivity— show promise of flowering over the coming decade. In many cases, developments across technologies will be mutually reinforcing. For example, advances in nanotechnology will enable the enhanced computational power necessary for breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $1 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Demography
The figures for global population growth over the next 20 years can be predicted with some confidence. This overall growth will be combined with a changing spatial and age distribution that will differ across regions. The impacts of migration are less clear than population growth but the overall move from rural to urban areas, especially in developing countries, is a well established trend.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Natural resource availability
Population growth will impact on those resources that are finite. In particular, there will be increasing pressure on water availability, both for drinking and for agriculture. The production of food will be a challenge as the availability of fertile land is limited, a situation that is exacerbated by the degradation of natural ecosystems. There will be increasing demand on finite sources of energy, with fossil fuels having to be extracted from previously unexploited locations. Other rare materials are also being used at rates which are unsustainable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Global environmental change
The impact of human behaviour on the state of the planet is being increasingly understood and mapped. Data on oceans, ecosystems, the cryosphere and the atmosphere are now available to show what this is likely to mean if environmental change continues at its present rate.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Human health and wellbeing
As the population expands and urbanization increases the prevalence of non-communicable diseases related to sedentary lifestyles and obesity is increasing. At the same time, communicable diseases will remain a challenge and the likelihood of global pandemics may increase as international travel and trade facilitate the spread of infectious agents.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)