Trends Identified
Growing immigration and problems of integrating minorities
Immigration in the EU will continue but decelerate between 2010 and 2060. The EU annual net inflows are projected to rise from about 1,043,000 people in 2010 (0.2% of the EU population) to 1,332,500 by 2020 and thereafter declining to 945,000 people by 2060. The cumulated net migration to the EU over the entire projection period is 60.7 million. Migration trends vary across the EU Member States. Net migration flows are likely to be concentrated to a few destination countries: Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Countries currently experiencing a net outflow are projected to taper off or reverse in the coming decades.65 Effectively integrating migrants in their host society also presents challenges for integration policy, particularly in view of diversity and minorities. Migrants might be challenged by labour market and social integration barriers.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing scale and urgency of climate change
There is no substantial doubt about the trend in global warming and there is a growing scale and urgency of climate change with global warming of more than 2C.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
EU energy security
The importance of energy security and dependence will grow and is likely to become the EU’s Achilles heel.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Rising consumption of raw materials and water. Rising pressure on land and global food insecurity
Every European citizen consumes 16 tonnes of materials annually, of which six tonnes are wasted, with half going to landfills. This consumption pattern stands in stark contrast to limited and increasingly expensive resources. Businesses are facing rising costs for essential raw materials and minerals, their scarcity and price volatility are having a damaging effect on the economy. These consumption patterns put further pressure on sources of minerals, metals and energy, and stocks of fish, timber, water, fertile soils, clean air, biomass and biodiversity.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing vulnerability of cities to climate change
Climate change influences climate conditions (temperature, rainfall and the magnitude of extreme weather events). Over the coming years, extreme weather events in LRAs will give an indication of situations projected for later this century. For instance, droughts and peak summer temperatures will be gradually more common in the Mediterranean regions. Winter floods and summer droughts will increasingly become more frequent in continental Europe while storms, heavy rainfalls and mild winters alter biophysical conditions in Western Europe.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing global and EU urbanisation
In 1950 only one in three people in the world lived in urban areas. By 2007 every other person lived in an urban environment. The projected urban share of global population is estimated to rise further to 60% in 2030. The figure in Europe is 2/3 rds of the European population living in urban areas (see graph), and this share continues to grow with nearly 80% living in urban areas by 2030.85 While the situation varies throughout the EU, there are big contrasts between rural and urban communities.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing urban sprawl and urban-rural synergies in the areas of recycling, food and renewable energy production Growing urban rural relations
With continuing growth of urbanisation, urban-rural relations are rapidly changing. Foremost, Europe will continue to witness an ever wider urban sprawl. Over the past 50 years, on average, cities have expanded by 78%, whereas the population has grown by only 33%. The historical compact city model has been replaced by free standing housing, more than doubling of the space consumed per inhabitant. As a result, low density suburban development in the periphery of Europe's cities has become the norm.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Increased stress and damage to vulnerable ecosystems and habitats
As cities expand into the countryside, the habitats of many animals and plants are reduced. Roads and other infrastructure are carving valuable habitats dividing wildlife populations into increasingly smaller groups. This has serious consequences for some of Europe’s most endangered species.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Limited and declining EU cohesion funds and infrastructure investments
The Structural Funds and the Cohesion Funds are the financial instruments of EU regional policy intended to narrow the development disparities among regions and EU Member States. Together with agriculture, they are the biggest spending blocs. Both agriculture and cohesion policies suffered hefty decreases for the upcoming budgetary cycle (2014-2020). It follows an ongoing trend in the EU budget away from agriculture and cohesion policy allocations.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Growing availability of big data and the data deluge
Data in the world is doubling every 18 months and has become the ‘21st Century’s new raw material’.95 The overall trend is that the world is becoming more and more interconnected by globally and continuously available data.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)