Trends Identified
Agricultural biofactories
In 2028, synthetic biology will have the potential to produce different kinds of food, including meat and drinks at lower costs than today. By manipulating genes, brand-new foods can be created with new properties or flavours. The bioproduction industry is expected to reach $100 billion by 2020 alone. This technology, which uses glass or plastic vats (bioreactors), and needs only sun or sugar, algae and nutrients, can be located anywhere.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
More robust, genetically modified crops
Synthetic biology can also be used to develop new crops with desirable traits such as salt-tolerance, drought-tolerance, and pest-resistance. This technology may help address issues raised by climate change or relieve pressure on arable land, particularly that used to grow feed for animals and some food crops (e.g., sugar, corn for fuel).
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Robots on the farm
Farming has the potential to become far more resource-efficient and environmentally friendly on existing farmland, given the prospects for greater automation using_x000B_AI, robotics and sensors. Flying drones could monitor large fields more quickly and precisely. With information from these drones, as well as that provided by satellites and sensors, automated tractors and sprayers could apply water, seeds, pesticides and nutrients in more targeted and timely ways. This precision could further be enhanced through nanomaterial-based, slow-release pesticides and insecticides. Robotic pickers will continue to emerge and, in time, be able to harvest more types of crops. Automated agriculture could make indoor agriculture more viable in regions where the impact of climate change is degrading arable land, food supply and reliability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Tracing food from seed to mouth
Food-related information for monitoring regulations and markets could be enhanced through implanted chips, sensors and bioinformatics. We may be able to trace food production as well as the path of food-borne diseases to a much higher degree. Markets, consumers and governments could have much more detailed knowledge of where food comes from, who produced it, how, and with what by-products.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Solar and wind may become cost-effective
Recently, there have been significant improvements in both solar and wind technologies, including cheap printing processes for solar panels. Many science sources suggest that solar and wind energy may become the most cost-effective choice for new electricity generation in many locations within 15 years. As solar and wind have become more affordable, massive research and venture capital has been going into battery storage for homes, buildings and vehicles. Effective and economical battery storage is on the horizon. It is the key enabling technology to ensure that buildings using renewable energy are powered during cloudy and windless days.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Decentralized energy systems
The combination of cost-effective solar, wind and battery technologies are the key building blocks for decentralized energy systems. Buildings could plug into the grid or operate independently. Electric cars could be plugged into buildings where they could act as a supplementary power source.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
More electric and hybrid vehicles
Electric engines will grow in the auto sector as advanced batteries take off. Initial costs of electric vehicles are foreseen to decline to parity with conventional vehicles as battery production rises twentyfold. The cost of ownership of electric vehicles is a quarter of the cost of those with internal combustion engines, which will further promote the adoption of electric vehicles as parity approaches. Advanced hybrid engines using biofuels may create a new market segment.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Bioenergy grows
Bioreactors using algae modified through synthetic biology will likely allow firms to produce cheap fuels that use only sunlight and waste CO2 and water as inputs. Production costs for diesel and ethanol through this “green chemistry” could reach $0.30/L in sunny geographies. Since CO2 could become a valuable commodity as an input for bioreactors, carbon-emiting facilities might diversify into green manufacturing plants. Greener ways to process the oil sands are possible.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Enhanced delivery systems
The transportation portion of industrial value chains will be dramatically more efficient, timely and automated. AI and robotic loading equipment will coordinate the movement of goods between transportation modes and systems, a factor that may foster a more competitive domestic manufacturing sector and keeps costs low. Lean and efficient business models characterized by “just-in- me” systems means responsive production and delivery of goods. For smaller deliveries, some vehicles may be displaced by programmable flying drones that can carry small packages between local destinations. These changes will have an impact on employment and on the sector’s overall contribution to gross domestic product.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Sequencing patient DNA may lead to personalized medicine
DNA data will help medical professionals better identify drug treatments that are effective and safe for a particular patient, and at dosages suitable for their metabolism. Personalized drug testing on stem cells cloned from the patient could reduce the need for more general animal and human drug trials and possibly identify a wider range of possible treatments. As the genetic markers of disease become increasingly known, DNA will grow more useful in diagnosis, as well as pre-diagnosis – offering risk profiles of conditions well before the onset of symptoms. Some chronic diseases may be prevented or even eradicated through prenatal interventions, early-life treatments, or possibly gene therapy.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada