Trends Identified
Resource-based services for distributed and parallel computing (metacomputing)
Resource-based services for distributed and parallel computing (metacomputing) allow the use of supercomputers to significantly increase the effectiveness of scientific research, as well as to increase the competitiveness of products across numerous sectors of the economy. Key directions in the development of metacomputing include grid-algorithms and software for distributed solutions to complex computing tasks; and algorithms and software to develop, verify and test large programmes. With the growth in demand for metacomputing services standard mechanisms will be developed for internal regulation of this services market and quality metrics will be created for these services which will make it possible to form business models for interaction between providers and consumers of the services. In the field of material production, thanks to e-science metacomputing services there will be a fall in the entry threshold for start-up companies onto knowledge-intensive product markets (microelectronics, pharmaceuticals, new material design, bioengineering). The development of this product group requires entirely new methods to solve the problems of energy consumption, component times between failures and the parallelism of the further movement towards increasing the real performance of metacomputing hardware platforms.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
“Internet of Things”
The concept of the development and communication of physical objects, referred to as the “Internet of Things”, appeared in the late 1990s. Its main idea was to fit as many objects as possible with interaction technology, creating a self-organising network of devices (objects) capable of working together to address these challenges and respond to changes in the environment. Such organisation of things (devices, objects) can restructure the corresponding economic and social processes and significantly reduce human involvement in these processes. The increase in the number of devices able to access the Internet, the growth in high-speed wireless networks, the development of machine interaction technologies and new types of sensors, the dissemination of cloud-based solutions and the start of the transition of client devices to IPv6 are all contributing to this. To realise the launch potential of the “Internet of Things” in terms of simple identification of objects in production processes, there needs to be a transformation in business processes in the majority of economic sectors.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Augmented reality technologies
Augmented reality technologies will be used as a basis for the creation of devices, which allow people to adapt the ways in which they interact with their environment through entirely new interfaces. A classic example of this concept is Google Goggles, which allows users to download information from the Internet on objects in their environment in real time. The most likely next step in the development of these technologies will be the appearance of special contact lenses imperceptible to others and able to transmit any information required from a variety of sources (including the Internet) to the user directly onto the retina of the eye. Thus, in terms of augmented reality the ways in which people socialise and perceive their surrounding environment could radically change, which in turn will bring about significant socio-economic effects.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Digital devices with replication and self-healing properties
Digital devices with replication and self-healing properties will become an integral part of the human environment in the long-term. A self-replenishing structure can produce copies of itself with equivalent functional properties. At present, one of the promising ways to solve this problem of self-replication and self-healing on a macro-level is layer-by-layer (additive) 3D-printing technology. To restore protective coatings and electronic circuits polymer capsules with carbon nanotubes are being developed which make it possible to reconstruct membranous constructions or conducting bridges if their integrity is violated. On a micro-level, the development of technologies and devices capable of self-replication, replication of external objects and self-healing will be inextricably linked to breakthrough achievements in nanotechnology, with the greatest impact in this regard coming from the development of molecular self-assembly technologies.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Anthropomorphic robots freely interacting with people
Abroad, there is currently considerable research and development into the creation of anthropomorphic robots freely interacting with people. In current versions, such robots are equipped with a control system including a number of key sub-systems: technical vision; voice control; voice messages; tactile sensing; spatial orientation; walking and stability control; and behaviour control. In future breakthrough research into modelling the functioning of the human nervous system, the dynamics of its value system, and psychological and mental maxims taking into account external and internal factors will be crucial for robotics (and the creation of anthropomorphic robots in particular).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
New technologies and principles to develop the component base
Maintaining the rate of growth in the ICT sector globally requires continuous increases in the performance of computer technology. At present, the technological process to manufacture Information and Communication Technology semi-finished products and materials reached the atomic level, which is where the Pauli exclusion principle, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and other fundamental positions in quantum physics limiting the potential to control elementary particles come into play. So as to avoid a collapse of ICT markets caused by a slowdown in the development of the hardware component, which would result in negative effects for the entire global economy, there needs to be timely industrial development of new technologies and principles to develop the component base. The research priorities in this context should be focused on the areas of nanotechnology (electronics based on graphene, fullerene, etc.), photonics and memrister technologies.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
New varieties of plants and breeds of agricultural animals
In the short term new varieties of crop plants and breeds of agricultural animals could be achieved by using molecular markets in selective work, double haploid technologies, genetic engineering, and other methods. It is expected that new varieties and hybrids will have properties such as high nutritional content, increased productivity, and/or other benefits (size of fruit, ripening time), and resistance to diseases, pests and adverse environmental conditions. The development of genome selection technologies will make it possible to develop new, higher quality breeds of agricultural animals (for example, in terms of meat fat content) with faster growth which, in turn, will contribute to rational use of animal feed. The practical introduction of new products will lead to an increase in the efficiency of agricultural production and a reduction in crop losses.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation biofuels
Efficient technologies to generate biofuels (including motor fuels) will save non-renewable supplies of fossil hydrocarbons, allowing for a significant expansion in the current resource base of the economy, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and, ultimately, a reduction in the negative impact of the energy sector on the planet’s climate. The main developmental directions in bioenergy technologies are increases in the energy efficiency of bio-conversion of carbon dioxide gas into motor fuel, reductions in the cost of biofuels, an expanded raw materials base for biofuels (for example, the development of technologies to convert lignocellulose into biofuel), and improvements in quality (stability, environmental cleanliness).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Biomaterials and organic synthesis products to replace traditional chemical industry products
Biotechnological process to produce biomaterials and organic synthesis products out of renewable raw materials, to replace traditional chemical production and develop innovative products with unique properties would involve the development of the new strains of microorganisms and microbial consortia involved in these processes as well as the development of technologies to produce biosynthetic monomers and polymerisation methods. The replacement of chemical manufacturing with manufacturing based on biotechnological processes to produce materials and organic synthesis products from renewable raw materials will make it possible to create products with a high level of purity (including optically pure organic substances to synthesise drugs) and reduce the cost of their manufacture. New types of biomaterials will have a wide range of applications on account of their special characteristics. A number of products (bioplastics, etc.) will have valuable properties such as biodegradability, and this, in turn, will provide an impetus for the creation of new biodegradable materials for medical and industrial purposes.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Metabolic engineering products
Biotechnological processes to produce biologically active compounds based on targeted modification of the producing organism’s pathways using metabolic engineering techniques will make it possible to produce amino acides, vitamins, antibiotics, enzymes, recombinant proteins and other products. The increased effectiveness of new methods of metabolic engineering and bio- engineering against the backdrop of traditional methods (random mutagenesis, etc.) reduces the cost of the product and creates the necessary conditions for mass application in various industries.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation