Trends Identified
Gas-hydrates
In Russia there are favourable conditions for the formation and conservation of significant gas-hydrate reserves. It should be noted that this build-up of natural methane hydrates has the greatest possible commercial prospects for industrial development, which is currently limited by the high cost of extraction and high technological risks. The development of industrial technology to extract gas-hydrates would contribute to unprecedented increases in gas reserves, capable of satisfying global demand for several centuries into the future. The extraction of methane from new major gas-hydrate deposits could radically change the configuration of the global gas market and the composition of its major players – both producers and buyers. This is due to the fact that large methane hydrate resources are held by countries which import natural gas (for example, Japan). In Russia, the continental resources of gas-hydrates which are the most promising for industrial development are estimated at approximately 400 trillion m3 and are concentrated in areas along permafrost formations in Eastern Siberia, the Timan-Pechora and Western Siberian oil and gas basins.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Off-shore wind farms
Global growth in electrical capacity at wind farms in the period up to 2035 is expected to be approximately 860 GW, 20% of which should come from high-tech sea-based wind farms. These will be built fastest of all; their total power, according to experts, should grow by more than 40 times, which grounds the interest to off-shore wind farms. At present wind farms’ share of total electricity generation is no more than 1.7%, with the majority only serving as pilot projects. The spread of this type of power plant will make it possible to significantly expand the use of wind’s resources and avoid a number of problems related to the development of land-based wind power, such as the inability to use the land for other economic activities, noise pollution, and the influence of strobing, etc. Off-shore wind is more of a “quality” resource for wind energy, as it is characterised by greater average annual speeds and continuity.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fuel cells
Fuel cells are also potential avenues for development in environmentally-friendly energy. The development of devices offering direct conversion of a fuel’s chemical energy into electricity has for several decades laid claim to the role of a breakthrough technology capable of completely revolutionising the energy sector. The achievements of recent years have brought this technology close to the stage of mass commercial adoption and have regained interest from energy companies. Three main types of fuel cells use are being considered: stationary energy (electricity generation, cogeneration, uninterruptible power supply units); transport energy (power sources in electric vehicles, trucks, military equipment, spacecraft, etc.); portable energy (power sources in mobile devices, battery chargers, etc.). The key strengths of fuel cells are considered to be their high efficiency factor (60–80%) and small size. Shortfalls include the lack of infrastructure for charging and the high cost of platinum which is used as a catalyst.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
High-efficiency photo converters
In the near future, solar energy will be based primarily on the use of various types of highly-effective photoconverters. One of its key advantages is the ability for end users to generate electricity directly, which makes it possible to save on the development of the electricity networks. Currently new promising photoconverters are being actively developed. The technology previews using the full spectrum of solar radiation, characterized by high efficiency factor and long life. Photovoltaic power sources are used to supply power to consumers across a broad power spectrum: from several watts (mini-generators for watches and calculators) to several megawatts (power stations). One key use of photovoltaic converters is in various types of solar arrays; transport and aviation applications for solar arrays are currently under development.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
High capacity electrochemical batteries
Electrochemical batteries to store electricity (accumulators) have seen widespread use in many sectors, primarily for mobile devices and on transport, as well as in stationary units – to provide an uninterrupted supply to important devices (communications, computer equipment, etc.). High capacity electrochemical batteries, used in the energy sector for relatively long-term storage of electricity, could play an important role in distributed generation systems to provide an operational reserve and stabilise the electrophysical parameters of local power systems, including regulating the frequency and voltage. The use of next-generation electrochemical batteries will make it possible to increase the competitiveness of renewable energy sources and to practically implement the distributed generation concept – increasing the load and efficiency of traditional electricity generation units through the opportunity to store energy, increasing the quality of the electricity supply to end consumers, reducing electricity loss in the power grids, cutting development and operating costs for trunk power lines, storing electricity and creating an operational power reserve directly at consumers’ location.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
“smart” networks, including micro-networks
The development of “smart” networks, including micro-networks, is aimed at reducing the cost of electricity and creating power reserves directly at end consumers’ location. The result of further improvements to this technology should be an increase in the reliability and security of power supplies, higher levels of technological processes’ computerization, the introduction of digital technologies and microprocessor equipment into monitoring and control systems, and reductions in operating costs. Demand for these technologies and equipment in Russia is relatively high, due to the need for large-scale renovation of Russia’s electrical energy sector. The growth in global demand for electrical equipment also creates high export potential.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast neutron reactors
One of the limitations for modern nuclear energy with an open nuclear fuel cycle and thermal neutron reactors is the significant and ever growing amount of stored irradiated nuclear fuel. Moreover, these technologies do not make it fully possible to use the energy stored in nuclear energy resources, as more than 90% of extracted uranium remains in enrichment plant heaps, and the effectiveness of the fuel’s use in hot water reactors is low. An integrated solution to existing problems is possible by concentrating efforts and resources to develop next- generation nuclear energy based on fast neutron reactors with a closed nuclear fuel cycle. This is a set of connected technological solutions, capable of guaranteeing extended reproduction of fissile nuclear material together with generating electricity while minimizing radioactive load on the environment across all technological conversion stages and, thus, having a revolutionary impact on the global nuclear energy market. A further benefit of the closed nuclear fuel cycle is the ability to use fast neutron reactors to solve the historically inherited problem of accumulating nuclear waste. This innovative technology is fundamentally different from existing ones due to the lack of the two key expensive technological conversion processes – uranium extraction and enrichment – and the existence of a technologically new conversion process – the multifold refabrication of the nuclear fuel which is combined with the immobilisation and final isolation of the high-level radioactive waste.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Applied superconductivity
One of the most promising innovative directions to increase energy efficiency is applied superconductivity technology, namely the integrated development and establishment of production of a wide range of electro-technical equipment based on the latest technologies with the use of unique materials – high-temperature superconductors. In the commercial energy sector, the use of superconductors is particularly attractive in terms of creating cables and power engineering and electricity storage (inductive capacitors). Superconductive cables, on account of their extremely low energy loss, are able to display a higher level of energy-efficiency in networks, creating fundamentally new conditions to manage generation facilities and to export electricity. Superconductive energy storage technologies will smooth out peak loads and align voltage and current, offsetting electricity supply in the event of network incidents, which will make it possible to negate the varying nature of alternative generation. Electro-technical equipment and power units based on superconductivity are designed to increase efficiency on rail and sea transport, in the energy sector, in the oil and gas industry, in the manufacturing sector, and others. Maximum results can be obtained by combining these with smart grid technologies. Russian developments in high-temperature superconductors are at various stages, from basic research to operational testing of prototypes of various forms of superconductor equipment. Forecasts of the Russian superconductor electrical equipment market are very optimistic and reflect its high potential and opportunities for long term growth. It is expected that the production volumes of various types of equipment (storage (5–20 MJ), current limiters (3–35 kW), generators (5–35 MW), electric motors (5–35 MW), synchronous compensators (5–35 MW), cables (1 km, 20 kW, 2 kA), transformers, etc.) will account for 36.5 billion roubles by 2020.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Shift in Global Economic Power
The falling prices of crude oil, depreciation of strong currencies and rise of emerging economies poised challenges to the dominant powerhouses are some of the signs of global economic shift occurring presently.
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Emergence of Disruptive Technology
Disruptive technologies will continue to evolve in the coming decades. Hence, it is in the hands of policy makers, entrepreneurs, business leaders and citizens to maximise application of these technologies while dealing with the challenges.
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia