Trends Identified
Future of Digital Economy and Society
The exponential growth in digitisation and internet connectivity is creating signi cant new opportunities for business and society. What makes the changes so signi cant is the combination and leverage of multiple technologies: algorithms, sensors, data, cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning and virtual reality working together that is new. These digital technologies can also combine with other technologies such as 3D printing, robotics, advanced materials, and energy storage, to have a multiplier effect on the way we live and work. The result is that digitisation is transforming what we do - from smart factories, to smart homes, to smart health - from the means of production to our personal well-being.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Security and Preparing for It: Why the Security Union is Needed
Terrorism and organised crime threatens our values and our way of life. Neither respects national borders. Indeed their business models thrive on the lack of coordination between states. The only way to defeat the terrorists and criminals is by working together effectively. In today’s world, security of one Member State is the security of all. National security remains the sole responsibility of Member States, but they cannot effectively address alone threats which are transnational.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
How Crime and Terror Have Merged: European Jihadists and the New Crime-Terror Nexus
The conventional wisdom used to be that terrorists are middle-class and educated. In October 2016, the World Bank published a study according to which the majority of Islamic State fighters were better educated than their peers. But the picture among European jihadists is strikingly different. Far from being middle-class, they are at home in the ghettos of big cities like Paris and Brussels, and many of them have criminal pasts.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Darker Side of New Technologies: How A New Global Security Order Has Arrived
Understanding the impact of new technologies on global security has never been more urgent – but responses are falling behind and there is no framework on the table to get back on track.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The New Uncertain Normal for Leadership in Politics, Public Service and Corporates. The Need to Think the Unthinkable.
The New Uncertain Normal for Leadership in Politics, Public Service and Corporates. The Need to Think the Unthinkable.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
'It’s not the big fish that eat the small...It’s the fast that eat the slow.'
In the past two decades, the world has been experiencing a period of unprecedented transition in political, social, economic and environmental areas mainly driven by an exponential change in technology. The rate of change in many aspects of human society is expected to continue creating both opportunities and perils. A recently introduced phrase- 'a black elephant.' 2 3 - is used to describe existing and foreseeable problems of great magnitude and complexity. There are many black elephants: failed and failing states, global warming, water scarcity, mass immigration, income inequality, and rising global powers challenging the international order. Additionally, the growing role of non-state actors and super- empowered individuals in domestic and international affairs has increased the complexity of addressing these black elephants in the strategic environment.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Tackling Uncertainty Head-on
When planning for any organisation’s future, decision makers are faced with an increasingly complex and dynamic external environment. For some elements of this environment, such as demographics, it is possible to identify broad trends; while others, such as the turbulent geopolitics, are more challenging to predict. In considering an uncertain future and how best to position the organisation, scenario planning is a useful tool. By creating a series of ‘different futures’, based on the most significant but uncertain forces shaping our environment, decision makers are encouraged to re-examine their own assumptions about the future. The process results in individuals stepping away from the so often reactive, incremental strategic planning – a natural response to uncertainty – in favour of a more forward looking, proactive approach.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The Future of Leadership in Europe
Leadership matters: hundreds of books are published every month with the word leadership in the title. Yet there no universal theory of leadership or agreement on how good, bad, better or great leadership can be evaluated or measured. One the one hand, societies everywhere are searching for leaders and leadership systems that can deliver realistic hope. One the other hand, advances in education, the spread of democracy, prosperity gains and social media have contributed to a diffusion of power and authority within societies and across the world. The turnover of political and business leaders in democratic societies seems to be occurring at an accelerating pace – shaped by and contributing to structural short-termism.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Knowledge and Democracy
Our democracies have a common life – but there is much disorder in it – the cultivation of suspicion towards foreigners, the manipulation of fear and the knowing disregard for truth. If our democracies were in healthier shape, we could face the challenge of resurgent authoritarianism with confidence, but there are few democracies, whether in the Central European region or elsewhere, that are in good shape. There is so much inequality and injustice; so much corruption and self- dealing, so many unanswered attacks on the independence of institutions, from the courts to the press.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Minimising Vulnerability and Fostering Resilience: An Investment for the Future of Europe
The ESPAS Report Global Trends to 2030 noted that 'The world is becoming steadily more complex, more challenging and also more insecure'. Since the publication of the Report in 2015, the sense of uncertainty has become even stronger in Europe and elsewhere. The referendum on Brexit, the 2016 US elections, as well as the political conditions in several European countries have demonstrated the risks that even well-established institutional systems can face due to a growing sense of uncertainty and dissatisfaction among citizens with current policies.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)