Trends Identified
Geopolitical dimension of resources
Emerging technologies and the exploration opportunities availed by climate change may allow the discovery of mineral and energy resources in previously inaccessible and possibly disputed regions as the High North
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Increased inequality
The bulk of the worlds population, the middle class, particularly in western society has felt the squeeze due to stagnation in real earnings after inflation adjustments, loss of benefits and overall compensation as the private sector has sought to reduce expanses by outsourcing support and labour costs and shift to part time versus full time employment.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Defence expenditures challenges in the West
A majority of NATO nations were able to change a decreasing defence spending trend into an increase in real terms 2016. political and national will would be required to sustain defence expenditures in competing priorities with limited budgets.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Environmental/climate change
The changes in climate change will bring challenges and opportunities. The changes to the climate imposes stresses on current ways of life, on individual's ability to subsist and on governments' abilities to keep pace and provide for the needs of their populations
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Natural disasters
Natural disasters will have increasing impact, partly due to overall increases in the severity and prevalence of severe weather events, but also due changes in the regions and times of year where these events may occur.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Shift of Global Power
Potential rebalancing of power from the West to other regions could present political and economic challenges to NATO members. While many developed nations have been experiencing slower economic growth, developing nations with faster growth may translate their rising economic power into greater political and military influence. As a consequence, the ability of the international community to integrate rising powers and manage the associated changes peacefully will be decisive for the future. Otherwise, the potential for tension or conflict could be increased in new as well as traditional hotspots, or threaten assured access to the global commons,17 compromising international relations and security.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Shifting Political Structures
The transition of autocratic/theocratic regimes towards more democratic forms of government will continue. The Middle East and North African region has experienced political upheaval in recent years, dislodging pre-existing regimes in several countries. The ongoing transition of some older established autocratic/theocratic regimes to more democratic forms of government will be turbulent. Over the next decades, established regimes are likely to continue to face reform movements. While this may eventually lead to new participatory and more inclusive democratic structures, transitional nations will likely weather a period of social and political instability, and possibly political reversals. For example, the republics that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union are in the process of democratisation and have experienced similar issues. Fledgling democracies will require more time to mature and stabilise. During this period they are at a greater risk of setbacks and civil strife.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Polycentric World
The world is becoming increasingly interconnected and polycentric. Emerging technologies, improved communications and access to modern transportation create newly empowered actors that may compete with traditional ones. The exponential rise of information technology enables dispersed individuals to act as an effective organised group within a network. This could empower and embolden organisations, advocacy groups, security providers, criminal syndicates, extremists, or individuals to attempt to shape the outcomes of political, social, economic, and environmental issues.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Changing Demographics
Future demographics will be driven by diverse effects. The world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 billion by 2030,28 but this growth will be unbalanced with varying regional effects. The average age of most Western populations is forecast to increase from the early to the mid-40s by 2030.29 Given higher birth and immigration rates, the United States will remain the youngest of the leading powers, while China’s population will age more rapidly given its increased longevity and lower birth rates. Accordingly, China will join Japan, Europe and Russia as one of the most rapidly ageing societies. India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country, whereas Russia and Brazil are likely to follow divergent paths with expected strong growth in Brazil and population decline in Russia. By 2030, the African continent is anticipated to have the fastest growing population.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Urbanisation
Cities will contain 65% of the world’s population by 2040, and 95% of urban population growth will occur within developing nations’ mega-cities33 (containing more than 10 million people). These urban centres will be situated generally in littoral areas, which provide easier access to trade and other advantages. Individuals will tend to migrate to areas offering broader employment and education opportunities, and possibly higher living standards. This will result in the urbanisation of roughly 75 million citizens every year. However, increased urbanisation is also accompanied by the growth of slums, which are expected to contain 1.5 - 2 billion people, or approximately 58% of the total urban population as early as 2020.34
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO