Trends Identified
Reorganization of the Economic System
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Global Population Movement, Expansion of Urbanization, World Population Growth, Enhancement in the Connectivity of the Global Economy, Emergence of Developing and Emerging Countries, Expansion of China's Global Influence, Spread of New Economic System, Change in the Structure of the Labor Field, Continuing Low-growth Risk in Developed Countries, Invigoration of Greenomics, Shift in Manufacturing Paradigm, Change in Market Pattern.
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Sharing economy
Car- and bike-sharing programs, as well as the revolution in the nature of taxi services is set to reduce the purchase of private vehicles and by extension likely the consumption of oil related to passenger vehicles . Estimates by McKinsey suggest that the sharing economy is likely to reduce car sales by around 10 % over the next 25 years. The effect on oil demand in 2040 of this trend is somewhat uncertain, related to both the speed of adoption of the sharing economy and the actual replacement of oil – fueled vehicles with alternatives.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
3D printing
3D printing is set to have potentially significant impacts on the logistics sector, driving more local production of goods and potentially reducing the transportation of intermediate goods across long distances. 4 According to Integracore, around 25 % of the freight, 41 % of the air cargo sector, and 37 % of the shipping sector may be at risk in the context of 3D printing. In estimating the implications for oil demand, there are data challenges related to the share that cargo makes up in the aviation and shipping sector respectively.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous driving is another area of significant disruption. Autonomous vehicles are already tested on the road, with a significant degree of automation built into the Tesla software. Autonomous driving could thus be associated with limited lock-in effect as vehicles simply receive ‘softwareupdates’ as the technology matures. The range of estimates on the impact of autonomous vehicles is wide, from rebound effects actually increasing oil demand to positive estimates suggesting up to a 40% efficiency gain across all road transport.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Ai in supply chains
Artificial intelligence will help significantly improve the efficiencies of supply chains, reducing waste both in the logistics chain itself, as well as in the nature of goods and services transported. Estimates suggest AI can help increase supply chain efficiencies by around 20-30%, 7 with commensurate effects in particular on the freight, air cargo, and shipping cargo sector.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Bio-plastics
Primarily driven by non-climate related environmental concerns, notably plastic trash in the ocean, biodegradable plastic is likely to make inroads as the technology develops, with potentially upward of 50% of plastics replaced by non- oil based alternatives by 2040, 8 including potentially with nanotechnology solutions.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hologram
Holograms can help revolutionize business travel and by extension the consumption of oil. This is likely to –should it scale – impact business travel in particular. Given some travel constraints and the fact that the majority of air travel is either cargo or ‘private’, holograms are only expected to have a low single digit effect on air travel consumption, with no robust estimates to date on scale.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hyperloop
The Hyperloop is designed to be an alternative technology to air travel, creating super high – speed on -ground travel connections, powered by electricity, across major industrial or population centers. Here too, estimates are missing, but high capital lock – in and long construction phases suggest limited penetration by 2040, even under an optimistic scenario, although hyperloops may come to play a more prominent role in the long - term.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Nanotechnology
Beyond its role in plastics, nanotechnology can also help accelerate fuel efficiency trends, through a combination of lowering the weight of vehicles and thus increasing efficiency, improving tire efficiency, and nanocatalysts that make fuel consumption more efficient.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
On the growth of AI
Patrick Moorhead, principal, Moor Insights & Strategy. On the growth of AI: We will see further permutations of artificial intelligence making their way into every aspect of our lives and our devices. We will see more services and experiences. Obviously the upside is that these things will become better at knowing what you want beforehand, and then doing it for you, whether that is meeting management or calling a Waymo self-driving cab or a microwave knowing exactly what you’ve put inside it and then starting when you tell it to start. This is all brought about by massive improvements in computational power and savvy programming.
2019
The biggest tech trends of 2019, according to top experts
Fast Company