Trends Identified

The economic outlook

The economy and the future economic setting remain perhaps the most critical factor in determining to a large extent which family and household groups are affected, and how. Long-term stable growth, ample employment opportunities, sound public finances, etc. will clearly affect family/household outcomes differently to a long-term unstable economy with high structural unemployment and poor public finances. In either case, some households and families will thrive, while others will see their vulnerability grow. Policy can mitigate such inequalities and ease the situation especially of those who are the most in need. But just as the future economic setting will affect families/households dif- ferently, so it will also affect the scope and resources available for policy action.

2011

The Future of Families to 2030

OECD

Beyond globalization

Globalization is still progressing, but also facing powerful headwinds. “Anti-globalization” sentiments are growing, and governments are responding: the United Kingdom is moving ahead with Brexit implementation; the United States has already stepped back from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and may now have changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in its sights. Meanwhile, traditional globalization metrics are slowing.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

ICASA: The force of billion-person markets

There are three geographic entities—India, China, and Africa—in which urbanization is empowering populations that exceed one billion people, and a fourth, Southeast Asia, with more than half a billion. Together, these enormous “ICASA” (India, China, Africa, and Southeast Asia) markets hold the potential for significant continued expansion . They also pose some of the biggest risks to global growth as they confront internal obstacles.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

Resources (un)limited?

The world’s natural-resource equation is changing as technology boosts resource productivity, new bottlenecks emerge, and fresh questions arise about “resources (un)limited?”.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

Combinatorial-technology explosion

Digitization, machine learning, and the life sciences are advancing and combining with one another to redefine what companies do and where industry boundaries lie. We’re not just being invaded by a few technologies, in other words, but rather are experiencing a combinatorial technology explosion.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

C2B: Customer in the driver’s seat

Customers are reaping some of the rewards, and our notions of value delivery are changing. In the words of Alibaba’s Jack Ma, B2C is becoming “C2B,” as customers enjoy “free” goods and services, personalization, and variety.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

Ecosystem revolution

The terms of competition are changing: as interconnected networks of partners, platforms, customers, and suppliers become more important, we are experiencing a business ecosystem revolution.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

The dark side

Progress thrives on openness, and openness almost by definition means exposure. The Internet, for example, has brought critical dangers even as it has unleashed a business and social miracle. Everyday acts, such as connecting your phone to your car via Bluetooth, create vulnerabilities most of us do not yet consciously consider. The costs of fighting cyberthreats are rising into the trillions. Meanwhile, rogue states continue to frustrate the global community, and the strains from combating terrorism are reverberating worldwide. The number of terrorist incidents and casualties remains relatively small but has been rising; global terrorism death levels by the end of 2015 were more than five times higher than they were in 2001.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

Middle-class progress

The rising tide of progress has not lifted all boats equally. Globalization and automation are polarizing the labor market, with more on the way as expanding machine-learning capabilities increase the automatability of a wide range of tasks in developed and emerging markets alike (Exhibit 8). As middle-wage workers are displaced, many are forced to “trade down,” reducing their income and putting pressure on existing lower wage workers. There is also widening earnings disparity. Workers with advanced degrees have generally seen their earnings rise, while wages for those with only high-school diplomas have stagnated, and wages for those who do not hold a high-school diploma have declined. Youth unemployment has reached 50 percent or more in several major developed economies

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

Economic experiments

Many growth policy tools have reached their limits. Central banks and governments in the developed world responded to the financial crisis by slashing interest rates , creating innovative facilities to try to keep the credit of lowing, and in some cases bailing out financial and nonfinancial players. Different mixes of austerity and structural reforms also were tried. When these proved insufficient to restart growth, leaders around the world turned to new, sometimes overlapping policy experiments, in search of a more effective solution.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey