Trends Identified
Growing world population
Over the next 20 years, the world population will balloon by 1.4 billion people to 8.3 billion, up 20% (0.9% or 70 million people p.a.) from 6.9 billion today. In 1990, the world population was 5.3 billion.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Ageing societies
Since life expectancy will continue to increase, the median age will rise and aging of population will even accelerate. Globally, the median age will move up by 5.1 years, from 29 today to 34 in 2030. Between 1990 and 2010, the increase was 4.7 years, up from 24 in 1990.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Increasing urbanization
The urban share of the population will continue to rise at high speed (8.5 percentage points) and growth will even accelerate compared to the last 20 years (7.8 percentage points). By 2030, 4.9 billion people, or 59% of the world's population, will live in cities, starting from 3.5 billion today (50% of the world's population). This means an increase of 40% in absolute numbers. In 1990, only 43% of the population lived in urban areas.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Ongoing globalization
Globalization will continue, with exports and FDI growing faster than GDP. The world's real GDP will grow by 4.0% p.a. to around USD 135 trillion by 2030, up from USD 62 trillion today. GDP growth will slow down compared to the past 20 years, when the increase was 5.3% p.a.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
BRIC: the new powerhouses
The economic growth of the BRIC countries up through 2030 is overwhelming. Their real GDP will grow by 7.9% p.a. over the next 20 years, much faster than over the past 20 years (5.6%). The BRIC countries will generate 36% of global GDP in 2030, compared to 18% today. China's annual real GDP growth rate will be the strongest at 9.0%, followed by India (8.4%), Brazil (5.5%) and Russia (5.3%). China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2026. India's will be one-quarter the size of the Chinese economy in 2030, accounting for 5.7% of the world's GDP. Brazil will overtake Japan in 2030
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Beyond BRIC
There are other countries besides BRIC that are capturing the world's interest because of their promising economic future, specifically the Next Eleven1) and the ASEAN Five2). We also look at the most economically attractive countries in Africa and South America in this section
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Energy
Both total demand for energy and energy prices will rise up to 2030. Oil will remain the most important resource, but will lose some significance to renewables. At current rates of production, the remaining lifetime of the various energy sources will be longest for coal (119 years), followed by gas (63 years) and oil (46 years). Conflicts over energy supplies are likely to rise, since these resources are highly concentrated in a small number of countries
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Other commodities
Demand for food will rise due to growing population and growing per capita food consumption. However, the growth rates in world agriculture1) will fall to 1.5% p.a. by 2030, compared to 2.1-2.3% p.a. over the past four decades. The world's food production is even threatened to fall by 2030 as a result of the projected changes in the ecosystem due to climate change. Agricultural efficiency is at risk due to water scarcity and limited sources of phosphate, an important component of mineral fertilizer. Conflicts will arise over the use of agricultural products as food or energy. Price will determine use
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Increasing CO2 emissions
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) have been the main driver of rising temperatures since the middle of the 20th century. The main GHG in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. CO2 is the most important GHG that can be directly influenced by humans. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are by far the greatest contributor of GHG emissions.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Water
Assuming average economic growth and no efficiency gains, annual global water requirements would grow by 53% from 4,500 billion m3 today to 6,900 billion m3 in 2030. Annual per capita water consumption will increase by 27% to 830 m3 in 2030, up from 651 m3 today. However, since accessible water is limited to 4,200 billion m3 per year (3,500 billion m3 of surface water and 700 billion m3 of ground water), there would be a shortfall of 2,700 billion m3 in 2030. This shortfall will be eliminated. The water shortage will drive water prices up, making major R&D investments in water technology profitable and necessary, which will in turn significantly reduce the amount of water wasted.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants