Trends Identified
CEOs will work hard to become more inclusive leaders — or leave.
The new generation of workers expects a different kind of leadership and has now reached the critical mass where their opinion is corporate law. “We were primarily led by 'my way or the highway' type leaders and that does not work with this environment,” says Carla Harris, vice chairman and managing director at Morgan Stanley. “I think you're going to see more leaders looking for leadership development or leadership guidance on how to be more collaborative, how to spur innovation, how to teach people how to fail and how to innovate. I think you're going to see far more money spent on speakers and resources around that.” Not immediately, but over time executives who don’t make that effort and pivot will be pushed out, she warns.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
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College admissions will get personal.
“The two numbers that have signaled whether a student can get into a top college — test scores and high school grades — are being called into question as more institutions go test optional and grade inflation is on the rise,” says Jeff Selingo, a higher education strategist. “The recent Harvard lawsuit points to the need for colleges to shape their classes amid an influx of applications, particularly ensuring racial and economic diversity.” So, what’s next? There’s no one simple solution, but colleges will start to shift toward weighing the “whole” applicant, looking at accomplishments beyond the classroom, says Selingo. Colleges are already sampling new approaches, like a form that allows students to submit videos and written work to flesh out their application or a new College Board tool that allows officials to better understand not just the high school the student attended but also their neighborhood based on census data.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
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Gig economy jobs will get less miserable.
Both because the hardships of gig work are increasingly making headlines and because the U.S. labor market is so competitive, companies are paying more attention to their treatment of on-demand workers. Retail legend Ron Johnson, formerly of Apple and JCPenney, refused to use 1099 contractors when he started his new company, Enjoy, a technology delivery and setup service. Instead, he made everyone an employee with benefits and stock options. “The number one issue in this full employment economy we're in, is to create better jobs,” Johnson says. “You gotta make your employee your primary stakeholder. And if you treat them well, they'll take care of your customer.” Similarly, Rent The Runway CEO Jennifer Hyman decided to align hourly workers’ benefits with those of salaried professionals. “We are starting to see that it's changing retention, Hyman says. It's certainly changing the day-to-day culture within the warehouse.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
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For respite, we will turn to inspirational commerce.
In an anxious world, we’re going to need more than a juice cleanse to take care of our exhausted psyches, writes Gina Bianchini, CEO of Mighty Networks. Health and wellness influencers, exhausted themselves, are shifting their models to building supportive communities and connecting their fans to each other, rather than amassing a large number of one-way followers — communities they can monetize through memberships or events. Bianchini writes: "While the first generation of e-commerce was about selling physical products online, this coming wave of 'inspirational commerce' is about creating opportunities for people to buy experiences and connections to realize their full potential.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Conscientious objectors rise up in the workforce.
In a tight labor market, professionals can afford to have principles. It’s starting with Google, always a bellwether of corporate culture, where in the past few months, employees have spoken up against the company launching a censored service in China, forced it to back out of a contract with the Pentagon and staged a walkout to protest sexual harassment in the workplace. “Employees at these companies are no longer going to stand for leadership doing things they just don’t believe in,” Ross Martin, Blackbird CEO, says. This instinct is particularly potent among Millennial and Gen Z workers, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman notes. “This idealism has opened a generational rift between managers and our younger protégés, who can sometimes be strident,” he says. “But their passion is one of the main reasons I’m excited about the future: The people just entering the workforce now will become the conscience of the corporation.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
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You’ll learn the term “fallen angels.”
The new subprime crisis will come from America’s corporate debt, especially in BBB-rated companies, warns Danielle DiMartino Booth, author of "Fed Up." Those companies’ combined debt is now north of $3 trillion, just like the subprime loans market back in 2007, she points out. “I think that the term ‘fallen angel’ is going to come into the accepted vernacular for investors, and that means when a company crosses from investment grade into being junk,” she explains.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
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Businesses will favor integrity over growth.
A decade ago, we rued banks that got “too big to fail.” It’s now happening to our tech companies. “Size matters,” says Rachel Botsman, a lecturer at Oxford’s Said Business School and the author of "Who Can You Trust?". So does “figuring out what to do with companies that got too big and the unintended consequences that happen as platforms scale.” In 2019, she predicts corporate cultures, particularly in tech, will start eschewing efficiency and growth at all costs in favor of maintaining integrity at scale. “I think you're going to see more and more cultures say, ‘How big is big enough? How big do we want this thing to become before it's outside our control and we can't see the consequences of it?’”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
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Loyalty will beat novelty.
Gen Z kids saw their parents lose homes and pensions to the financial crisis. As a result their perspective on work and money most closely resembles that of their great grandparents, who grew up in the Great Depression and prized security above fulfillment. “Millennials want a dream job,” says Pranam Lipinski, CEO of Door of Clubs, who surveyed thousands of Gen Z students about their values and preferences. “Generation Z wants success and financial stability over that dream job.” That means they’re far more likely to remain loyal to an employer that provides a stable environment and benefits — in Door of Clubs’ survey, 61% said they’d stay with an employer 10 years or longer. But watch out, warns Jill Schlesinger: It’s changing jobs that gets you significant raises. Too much loyalty will hurt your lifetime earning power.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The Internet will grow ever more fragmented.
Besides the U.S.-China division, internet fragmentation is also happening in less obvious places, Oxford cybersecurity expert Emily Taylor explains. Europe’s global data protection regulation (GDPR) has led some companies to overreact and block their sites to European visitors. Other jurisdictions are following suit and considering data localization laws. “You're going to end up with cross-cutting national and regional laws that are reaching over their borders, making it very difficult for companies to comply,” Taylor warns. “People will just choose to be very limited in what they do and the audiences that they try to reach.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Don’t even try to guess the price of oil.
"Here’s a prediction for 2019: Energy markets are going to remain wildly unpredictable. One realization I came to when I worked on my last book was that most everyone who makes predictions about the future of oil prices is alike in one remarkable respect: They are wrong. "Remember M King Hubbert’s famous prediction of peak oil back in the 1970s? He looked roughly right — until the shale revolution changed everything. Now, the shale revolution is supposed to ensure a mammoth and growing supply of U.S. oil for the foreseeable future. 'Lower for longer,' meaning oil prices in the $50 range, has become something of a mantra on Wall Street. But skeptics suspect there may be fewer wells that are profitable at $50 oil than executives would have you believe. If so, and if the dearth of long-term projects over the past decade results in less supply than expected, there may be price spikes in the future. Or not. I think this is the ultimate truth about the oil market: It defies people’s attempts at predicting it, much less controlling it."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn