Trends Identified
Feeding the future
How will the world feed a population projected to grow from 7.6 billion in 2017 to 9.8 billion in 2050? Climate change will accentuate weather volatility and the amount of arable land is projected to decline from 0.23 hectares per person in 2000 to 0.15 by 2050 due to environmentally unsound practices. Precision agriculture and biotechnology are promising solutions for achieving sustainable and stable food production. Reflecting this view, investment in agriculture technology grew, on average, 63% yearly from 2010–2015. In smart farms, moisture sensors in the soil are linked to the farm’s irrigation and humidity systems, while operations like weeding and harvesting are performed by agri-bots. With farming processes mirroring tightly-controlled factory operations, food production could become more stable, efficient and cost-effective.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Satellites down
In August 2016, a 1-cm-wide man-made object collided with the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel 1A satellite, creating a 40-cm crater and a change in orbit. As more and more satellites are launched, the risks of space debris disabling satellites and disrupting navigation and communication systems will rise. Indeed, roughly one in ten functioning satellites in the Earth’s orbit had experienced collisions like that of the Sentinel 1A. The frequency of such collisions is rapidly increasing; it is predicted that over the next two decades, the average time interval between collisions could shrink from 10 years to just five.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Climate winners and losers
Climate change is about more than melting icecaps and flooded coastal cities. Climate change action, or inaction, will affect which nations and economies become tomorrow’s economic and geopolitical winners and losers. Food production could shift. Canada, Siberia and potentially even parts of Antarctica could become more habitable and productive, while current bread-baskets in the US and China face increasing desertification and extreme weather.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Demographics
Higher life expectancy and falling birth rates are increasing the proportion of elderly people across the world, challenging the solvency of social welfare systems, including pensions and healthcare. Some regions are also facing the challenge of integrating large youth populations into saturated labor markets.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Rise of the individual
Advances in global education, health and technology have helped empower individuals like never before, leading to increased demands for transparency and participation in government and public decision-making. These changes will continue, and are ushering in a new era in human history in which, by 2022, more people will be middle class than poor.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Enabling technology
Information and communications technology (ICT) has transformed society over the last 30 years. A new wave of technological advances is now creating novel opportunities, while testing governments’ ability to harness their benefits and provide prudent oversight.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Economic interconnectedness
The interconnected global economy will see a continued increase in the levels of international trade and capital flows, but unless international conventions can be strengthened, progress and optimum economic benefits may not be realized.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Public dept
Public debt is expected to operate as a significant
constraint on fiscal and policy options through to 2030 and beyond. Governments’ ability to bring debt under control and find new ways of delivering public services will affect
their capacity to respond to major social, economic and environmental challenges.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Economic power shift
Emerging economies are lifting millions out of poverty while also exerting more influence in the global economy. With a rebalancing of global power, both international institutions and national governments will need a greater focus on maintaining their transparency and inclusiveness.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Climate change
Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) are_x000B_causing climate change and driving a complex mix_x000B_of unpredictable changes to the environment while further taxing the resilience of natural and built systems. Achieving the right combination of adaptation and mitigation policies will be difficult for most governments.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG