Trends Identified
Ideas and Identities are driving a wave of exclusion
Growing global connectivity amid weak growth will increase tensions within and between societies. Populism will increase on the right and the left, threatening liberalism. Some leaders will use nationalism to shore up control. Religious influence will be increasingly consequential and more authoritative than many governments. Nearly all countries will see economic forces boost women’s status and leadership roles, but backlash also will occur.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Governing is getting harder
Publics will demand governments deliver security and prosperity, but flat revenues, distrust, polarization, and a growing list of emerging issues will hamper government performance. Technology will expand the range of players who can block or circumvent political action. Managing global issues will become harder as actors multiply—to include NGOs, corporations, and empowered individuals—resulting in more ad hoc, fewer encompassing efforts.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
The nature of conflict is changing.
The risk of conflict will increase due to diverging interests among major powers, an expanding terror threat, continued instability in weak states, and the spread of lethal, disruptive technologies. Disrupting societies will become more common, with long- range precision weapons, cyber, and robotic systems to target infrastructure from afar, and more accessible technology to create weapons of mass destruction.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Climate change, environment, and health issues will demand attention
A range of global hazards pose imminent and longer-term threats that will require collective action to address—even as cooperation becomes harder. More extreme weather, water and soil stress, and food insecurity will disrupt societies. Sea-level rise, ocean acidification, glacial melt, and pollution will change living patterns. Tensions over climate change will grow. Increased travel and poor health infrastructure will make infectious diseases harder to manage.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Scarcity
Economic growth means the use of scarce natural resources. If people become richer they will use up more energy, water and food, and create more waste. Technological advances often also lead to increased consumption, as well as to new challenges (rebound effect). The much acclaimed introduction of biodiesel, for instance, led to an undesired decrease in farmland used for food production. There is an end to our natural resources. Many of these resources are found in areas that are politically unstable. The rise of the BRIC1 and MINT2 countries (and probably other nations in the future as well) and the corresponding growing prosperity have increased the demand for natural resources considerably, creating an additional problem for countries consuming the most.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Climate change
Man’s relation to earth is complex. Earth and nature determine the fate of mankind, but in turn mankind determines the fate of earth (nature) through technological advances and the extraction of natural resources, for instance, through large-scale deforestation, leading to less biodiversity and, consequently, desertification and erosion of the soil. Or through dumping plastic in the ocean (the infamous plastic soup). Ever since the seventies of the 20th century there has been a global debate on the limits of growth. Will tomorrow’s population be so large that it will exhaust the earth? Experts believe that climate change (through the greenhouse effect and global warming) will render specific regions on earth uninhabitable [Knox and Marston, 2011]. Weather conditions may become more unstable and more extreme. This will, for instance, increase the risk of large hurricanes and disastrous floods. Extreme heat and lack of water may turn specific parts of the world into deserts. Cities lying on the coast may disappear into the ocean.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Demographic change
During the next decades improved healthcare, more access to education and higher living standards will lead to a population increase. According to the UN and OESO the world population will increase to 9 billion people in 2050, with a peak of 9.2 billion in 2075. An additional two billion people in forty years. In other words, increased competition over scarce resources. The average life expectancy for each region differs, but on a global scale it will rise. As of 2030 a life expectancy of 106 will no longer be surprising. The notion ‘old age’ will have to be redefined. In many developed economies 55 years old is middle-aged now. If the global trend of people migrating to cities continues, more people will be living in cities than ever before (urbanisation). These cities can only be viable places if they are sustainable, smart and resilient.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Longer life
The average life expectancy in the West has risen extremely fast. In combination with a falling birth rate this leads to ageing of the population, and — consequently — turns care of the elderly into a challenge. Especially, when it comes to informal (family) care for women. The growing demand for healthcare is also felt on the labour market. Almost 75% of the primary caregivers is female, and more than 30% of the people caring for a family member also has a job [EC, 2012]. Work and informal caregiving are in each other’s way.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Global power shifts
State borders and geopolitical relationships resulted from centuries of voyages of discovery, from colonisation, decolonisation, wars and the Cold War. Much of the political unrest in the world is caused by the globalisation of the economy [Knox and Marston, 2011]. In addition, a global power shift is taking place. Asia is becoming more powerful. During the past ten years Asian countries have accounted for half of the global growth of the Gross National Product (GNP). All indications are that within the next ten years Asia will dominate Europe and the US. The fast rise of India and China will lead to a multi-polar world in which the US is no longer supreme.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
New connectivity
An increasing number of obligations and networks exists outside the family context. This leads to less cohesion in families and households, influenced by technological developments in mobile communication, social media and computers. Our social tissue appears to change from ‘blood relationships’ to ‘chosen relationships’. Relationships are increasingly driven by (temporary) affiliations and interests. The next generation, also called digital natives, will change the rules of the game. This generation will be a dominating power in the ageing West, even if economic growth is zero. Shortages on the labour market will force employers to be flexible or move away. The younger generation will demand more flexible and attractive labour conditions in line with their own ambitions. This generation will also be ‘hyperconnected’. Virtual online collaborative communities will be the best way to get things done.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)