Trends Identified
Human cloning & de-extinction
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Sooam (South Korea), Revive and Restore (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Human empowerment
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Increased Life Expectancy, Self-centered Society, Decrease in Birth Rate, Empowerment of Women, Expansion of Human Capability, Hyper-speed Transportation, Artificial intelligence and Automation, Development of New Materials. Opening of the Space Age
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Human enhancement
Pushed by military and medical research, human enhancement might change the day-to-day life experience of many Europeans in a few years from now-on, e.g. by creating an “augmented reality” and receiving information from IT via nerves-IT-interfaces. The big potential in terms of economic growth will be accompanied by policy and regulatory challenges and maybe even a societal divide. Any regulatory response must build on international cooperation to be efficient.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Human head transplants
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group (Italy).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Human health and wellbeing
As the population expands and urbanization increases the prevalence of non-communicable diseases related to sedentary lifestyles and obesity is increasing. At the same time, communicable diseases will remain a challenge and the likelihood of global pandemics may increase as international travel and trade facilitate the spread of infectious agents.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Human Microbiome Therapeutics
The human body is perhaps more properly described as an ecosystem than as a single organism: microbial cells typically outnumber human cells by 10 to one. This human microbiome has been the subject of intensifying research in the past few years, with the Human Microbiome Project in 2012 reporting results generated from 80 collaborating scientific institutions. They found that more than 10,000 microbial species occupy the human ecosystem, comprising trillions of cells and making up 1%-3% of the body’s mass. Through advanced DNA sequencing, bioinformatics and culturing technologies, the diverse microbe species that cohabitate with the human body are being identified and characterized, with differences in their abundance correlated with disease and health. It is increasingly understood that this plethora of microbes plays an important role in our survival: bacteria in the gut, for example, allow humans to digest foods and absorb important nutrients that their bodies would otherwise not be able to access. On the other hand, pathogens that are ubiquitous in humans can sometimes turn virulent and cause sickness or even death. Attention is being focused on the gut microbiome and its role in diseases ranging from infections to obesity, diabetes and inflammatory bowel disease. It is increasingly understood that antibiotic treatments that destroy gut flora can result in complications such as Clostridium difficile infections, which can in rare cases lead to life-threatening complications. On the other hand, a new generation of therapeutics comprising a subset of microbes found in healthy gut are under clinical development with a view to improving medical treatments. Advances in human microbiome technologies clearly represent an unprecedented way to develop new treatments for serious diseases and to improve general healthcare outcomes in our species.
2014
Top 10 emerging technologies for 2014
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Human Networks / Transparency
Human networks are expanding at an exponential rate with many varying effects. Networks can be large or small, local or global, domestic or transnational, cohesive or diffuse, centrally directed or highly decentralised, purposeful or directionless. While they take many forms, networks are comprised of people, processes, places, and material. A human network is an alliance of socially connected individuals who are involved in activities to achieve some form of common social, political, monetary, religious, or personal goal. Although there can be many benefits and opportunities presented by modern human networks, transnational networks can also make malign use of the interconnected global environment to direct operations, raise money, obtain and train recruits, and freely exchange technological information.35
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Human obsolescence - How quickly will machines sweep man aside?
Predictions about artificial intelligence (AI) have a patchy record. Any greybeard in the field will tell you tales of previous hype cycles in the 1970s and 1980s that crashed when their fabulous promises were not fulfilled. Now, though, times are good again. A spurt of progress in machine learning, a sub-field of AI, has companies piling in. The technology is being used for everything from working out how best to aim advertisements at web-surfers to how to develop selfdriving cars. A landmark was working out how to beat humans at Go, an East Asian strategy game that computers have historically found hard. An AI created by DeepMind, a British subsidiary of Google, beat a human champion of the game in 2015.
2018
The world in 2018
The Economist
Human versus machine
Growing levels of automation will not only begin to transform the future of business but also the future of work
2018
8 sustainability trends that will define 2018
Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership
Human-Machine Convergence – Leaving Biology Behind
The convergence of humans and machines, also known as transhumanism, human augmentation, cyborging, hacktivism or cybernetics, is a prominent theme in many science fiction stories but we are finally reaching a tipping point, where reality is starting to look more and more like science finction. Drivers of this development are immersive technologies, machine learning/AI, brain-machine Interfaces, artificial/robotic body parts, artificial sensors, skin manipulations etc. We already use technology in our body such as bionic hands and limbs, artificial skin and artificial retinas, but the ideas goes far beyond it, using intellectual and physical improvements as an integral part of the human body. The idea behind it is to either permanently or temporarily merge with technology to enhance performance that exceeds normal human limits, to cure illness and deficiencies and improving mental and body strength. Examples are increased physical power via exoskeletons, improved perception with sensors, inbuild immersive and intelligent technologies, braincomputer interfaces, artificial/ robotic body parts, skin manipulations and others like new drugs and genetic updates. It will start around work and activities that demand extreme physical or mental performance, such as the military, emergency services and sports and all areas where humans need an increased mental focus or altered state, like in arts, creativity, and deep thinking. A convergence will rise ethical questions and in the future, we have to decide which enhancements we would allow, if they have to be visible or not etc. As robotics may involve fewer ethical and legal minefields, future scenario might be to allow limited conversions.
2018
Trend Report 2018 - Emerging Technology Trends
SAP