Trends Identified
Technology and media: enabling growth, facilitating inequality?
It is tempting to overstate the influence of technological change on the evolving landscape of the European Union in the long and short term. Yet, technological change is possible only to the extent that individuals and societies understand, accept and absorb technology, or contribute to its development in a variety of ways (ITU, 2011; World Bank, 2012; OECD, 2012a; Perez, 2010). Without this human factor, which ranges from tolerance to adherence, technological change in itself would be close to irrelevant, as past human fears and rejections of new technologies – especially during periods of industrial revolution – suggest. However, the benefit of technological change should be weighed carefully, since the phenomenon is both an enabler and a facilitator of greater ambitions and an accelerator of inequalities between the high- and low-skilled (see Cave et al., 2009; Facer and Sandford, 2012). To this extent, technological change is perhaps one of the most illustrative examples of a cross-cutting issue with uncertain consequences, as it impacts labour, economic growth and other technologies, sometimes in twoway relationships. For instance, in the relationship between labour markets and technology creation, does the latter enable the former or vice versa? The impact of technology on issues ranging from education to skills or demand for political change will depend to a large extent to the adoption of technology. This is likely to be a major driver for change, insofar as future inequalities are projected to revolve around the ability to reap the benefit of technological change for capacity building (in terms of skills, literacy, etc).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Technology and science: rapid, rapid change
The pace of technological and scientific innovation will increase. Computers will become smaller, faster, and cheaper, which means that more people, in both developed and developing countries, will be connected via the Internet. Mobile phone technology, now the dominant tool of communication in many regions, will reach close to global coverage in the coming generation.22 Technologies will become more than repositories of knowledge: they will be increasingly smarter, more autonomous, and more anthropomorphic, with voice- and gesture-based commands.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Technology Complicates the Long-Term Outlook
Most of the worlds’ largest economies will struggle with shrinking working-age populations, but all countries will face the challenge of maintaining employment—and developing well-trained, resilient workers. Automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and other technological innovations threaten the existence of vast swaths of current jobs up and down the socioeconomic ladder, including high-technology manufacturing and even white-collar services.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Technology diffusion
The diffusion of technologies is closely related to income. It is both a critical determinant of income and a result of rising incomes. As the world economy grows and countries get richer, the diffusion of technologies accelerates. In turn, as diffusion of technologies increases, a country's productivity rises, resulting in even stronger economic growth. As the world's wealth will grow by 4.0% p.a. from a real GDP of USD 62 trillion today to USD 135 trillion in 2030, the spread of technology will likewise increase further in that period.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Technology enabled urban planning and design
Designing IoT enabled cities with intelligent infrastructure and grids, and shared operations, can increase energy efficiency, and reduce GHG emissions and waste at the building, transport system, and municipal level.
2017
Innovation for the Earth - Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet
PWC
Technology for humanity (specifically machine learning).
We are approaching the point where technology can help resolve societal issues. We predict that large-scale use of machine learning, robots, and drones will help improve agriculture, ease drought, ensure supply of food, and improve health in remote areas. Some of these activities have already started, but we predict an increase in adoption rate and the reporting of success stories in the next year. “Sensors everywhere” and advances in IoT and edge computing are major factors contributing to the adoption of this technology. Recent events, such as major fires and bridge collapses, are further accelerating the urgency to adopt monitoring technologies in fields like forests and smart roads.
2018
IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech: Top 10 Technology Trends for 2019
IEEE Computer Society
Technology is accelerating progress but causing discontinuities
Rapid technological advancements will increase the pace of change and create new opportunities but will aggravate divisions between winners and losers. Automation and artificial intelligence threaten to change industries faster than economies can adjust, potentially displacing workers and limiting the usual route for poor countries to develop. Biotechnologies such as genome editing will revolutionize medicine and other fields, while sharpening moral differences.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Technology with Increasing Downside
Job churn moves up the skills ladder as robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation become widespread. Terrorists move into higher technology, with devastating effects. The United States will remain the overall tech leader, with China making inroads. Technology increases inequalities within and between nations.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Telepathy
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Facebook (US), Neuralink/Elon Musk (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Temporary jobs become the norm
In 2012, the number of Canadians with temporary jobs – often low-paying and with few benefits – was estimated to be 13.6% of the labour force and growing three times faster than traditional jobs. As these technologies evolve, we expect they will increase productivity but may result in more part-time work, short-term contracts, micro-jobs and more foreign “virtual workers” (as described in MetaScan 2). Many have described these jobs as precarious as they lack security in terms of employment, income, skill and career development. As corporations try to reduce costs to increase competitiveness, the number of temporary jobs is growing. Should we look for ways to make these workers more productive? It is interesting to note that the high-income creative class and lower-income temporary workers face similar challenges and have similar needs.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada