Trends Identified
Autonomous things
Whether it’s cars, robots or agriculture, autonomous things use AI to perform tasks traditionally done by humans. The sophistication of the intelligence varies, but all autonomous things use AI to interact more naturally with their environments. Autonomous things exist across five types: Robotics Vehicles Drones Appliances Agents Those five types occupy four environments: Sea, land, air and digital. They all operate with varying degrees of capability, coordination and intelligence. For example, they can span a drone operated in the air with human-assistance to a farming robot operating completely autonomously in a field. This paints a broad picture of potential applications, and virtually every application, service and IoT object will incorporate some form of AI to automate or augment processes or human actions. Collaborative autonomous things such as drone swarms will increasingly drive the future of AI systems Explore the possibilities of AI-driven autonomous capabilities in any physical object in your organization or customer environment, but keep in mind these devices are best used for narrowly defined purposes. They do not have the same capability as a human brain for decision making, intelligence or general-purpose learning.
2018
Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2019
Gartner
Autonomous vehicles
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Google/Waymo (US), Voyage (US), Nvidia Automotive (US), most major auto-makers.
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Autonomous Vehicles
The rise of the automobile transformed modern society. It changed where we live, what we buy, how we work, and who we call friends. As cars and trucks became commonplace, they created whole classes of jobs and made other professions obsolete. We are now on the cusp of an equally transformative technological shift in transportation: from vehicles driven by humans to vehicles that drive themselves. The long-term impact of autonomous vehicles on society is hard to predict, but also hard to overstate. The only certainty is that wherever this technology becomes ubiquitous, life will be different than it was. Google and other companies have been testing self-driving cars for several years now, with good success. These autos process vast amounts of sensory data from on-board radars, cameras, ultrasonic range-finders, GPS, and stored maps to navigate routes through ever more complex and rapidly changing traffic situations without any human involvement. Consumer use of vehicles with autonomous capabilities, however, is just beginning. Adoption will proceed gradually, through the steady implementation of increasingly intelligent safety and convenience features in otherwise ordinary cars. Some models, for example, already offer hands-off parallel parking, automatic lane-keeping, emergency braking, or even semi-autonomous cruise control. Last October, Tesla Motors made available a software package that enables a limited form of self-driving operation for owners of its vehicles to download. This trend is likely to continue as such technology matures and as legal and regulatory barriers start to fall. A half-dozen states have already authorized autonomous road vehicles, and more have plans to do so. Discussions are well underway among auto insurers and legislators about how to apportion liability and costs when self-driving cars get into crashes, as they inevitably will—although it is widely expected that these cars will prove to be much safer, on average, than driver-operated cars are today. There is plenty of room for improvement on that front. In the United States, crashes and collisions claim more than 30,000 lives and cause some 2.3 million injuries annually. Self-driving systems may have bugs—the software that runs them is complicated—but they are free from the myriad distractions and risk-taking behaviors that are the most common causes of crashes today. In the near term, semi-autonomous safety systems that engage only to prevent accidents, but that otherwise leave the driver in charge, will also likely reduce the human cost of driving significantly. Far more profound transformations will follow once cars and trucks can be trusted to pilot themselves routinely—even with no one inside. Exclusive car ownership could then cease to be the necessity of modern living that it is today for so many people. Shared cars and driverless taxi and delivery services could become the norm. This transition might help the aged and infirm—an increasing fraction of the population—to “age in place” more gracefully. Shared programmable vehicles could reduce the need for local parking structures, reduce congestion by preventing accidents and enabling safe travel at higher speeds and closer following distances, and unlock numerous secondary benefits. Like every technology, autonomous vehicles will involve drawbacks as well. In some distant day, commercial driving may no longer be a sustainable career. Shared vehicles raise some thorny privacy and security concerns. In some regions, increased affordability of car access may greatly exacerbate traffic and pollution problems rather than easing them. But the many benefits of self-driving cars and trucks are so compelling that their widespread adoption is a question of when, not if.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous driving will be facilitated by the data-processing capabilities of machine learning, but its disruption capabilities are so widespread that Delaney considers it a separate category.
2017
5 big disruptive trends investors should watch
Morgan Stanley
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous driving is another area of significant disruption. Autonomous vehicles are already tested on the road, with a significant degree of automation built into the Tesla software. Autonomous driving could thus be associated with limited lock-in effect as vehicles simply receive ‘softwareupdates’ as the technology matures. The range of estimates on the impact of autonomous vehicles is wide, from rebound effects actually increasing oil demand to positive estimates suggesting up to a 40% efficiency gain across all road transport.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Autonomous vehicles and drones
Autonomous vehicles are perhaps the most visible applications of advanced algorithms, sensors and powerful computing power. Five levels of automation exist for vehicles (excluding zero automation), ranging from basic driver assistance (level 1: “hands on”) to full automation (level 5: “steering wheel optional”) (see figure A.1). The most successful automation system currently available, offered by Tesla in its passenger cars, provides level 2 automation (“hands off ”), where the driver can rely on the vehicle to steer and control speed but must be attentive and ready to intervene when required. A significant amount of research is being conducted whose aim is to allow vehicles to operate at level 3 (“eyes off ”) and higher automation levels. While some automakers are announcing plans to market level 3 automation capabilities in the next two years, level 5 automation is, by some estimations, decades away.
2018
World Economic And Social Survey 2018: Frontier Technologies For Sustainable Development
United Nations
Autonomous vehicles, including drones
Enabled by robots these are vehicles that can operate and navigate with little or no human control. Drones fly or move without a pilot and can also operate autonomously.
2017
Innovation for the Earth - Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet
PWC
Autonomy
Evans says that when the day comes that cars, buses, and other vehicles no longer need drivers, it’ll be possible to completely re-imagine what those vehicles can be, and—even better—re-imagine the world in which they move. “If you’re building public infrastructure or planning a city, then [long-term planning] absolutely needs to be something that figures into your thinking.”
2018
The Most Important Tech Trends Of 2018, According To Top VCs
Fast Company
Availability of key skills
38% of responding CEOs answered that they were 'extremely concerned'
2018
Global CEO survey
PWC
Avatar companions
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Pullstring (US), Amazon (US), Alphabet/Google (US), Nintendo (Japan), Invisible Girlfriend/Boyfriend (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London