Trends Identified
Environmental / Climate Change
Global environmental change and its impacts are becoming readily apparent and are projected to increase in the future. In some areas these changes could present benefits, such as less energy requirements for heating, longer growing seasons that allow increased agricultural production, and the opening of the Arctic for resource exploration and shipping traffic. However, these benefits are likely to be offset by negative effects elsewhere, including coastal inundation, desertification, deforestation and other ecological effects that will have a direct impact on the world’s fresh water and food. Water stress is expected to be the most inevitable near-term impact of climate change.49
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Environmental Awareness
The influence of social activism has continued to rise as consumers have become more empowered, demanding environmentally sustainable products, increased corporate social responsibility efforts, and other commitments to society.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Environmental Degradation and Climate Change
It is now widely recognized that the causes of environmental degradation and climate change—and their potential solutions—are essentially linked to human activity (IPCC 2015). The impact of human activity on the environment and the climate is one of the megatrends that will shape future trajectories of—and can potentially undermine— progress on sustainable development, including on eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Environmental Impact
Water and air pollution, and soil degradation through acidification, contamination, desertification, erosion, or salination will remain problems, especially in densely populated, rapidly industrialising states.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Environmental/climate change
The changes in climate change will bring challenges and opportunities. The changes to the climate imposes stresses on current ways of life, on individual's ability to subsist and on governments' abilities to keep pace and provide for the needs of their populations
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Environmentally safe and energy saving processing and re-use of household waste to generate secondary raw materials
The introduction of environmentally friendly and energy efficient systems offering integrated and extensive processing of raw materials to divide minerals into end products with the maximum quantity of mineral components will allow for substantial improvements in the effective ness of mineral processing and a reduction in the volume of waste production. It will be possible to develop new affordable sources of raw minerals which, in turn, will lead to cheaper processing, changes in the geography of exporting and importing nations, and growth in competition on the market. There is expected to be a fall in capital expenditure and water consumption by 15–20% and expenditure on reagents and energy to process minerals by 30–50%; the productivity of processing and enrichment facilities will increase by 10–40% and the level of useful component extraction will increase significantly.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmentally safe and energy saving processing and re-use of production waste to create articles, materials and valuable components
The application of equipment for environmentally safe and resource-efficient processing of production waste, generating goods and materials and valuable components will provide an opportunity to engage in the use of inactive reserves of minerals, poor ores, and metallurgy waste, and to reduce the amount of metal lost in dumps of unpayable ore and old waste from processing companies. Aside from this, the introduction of new developments will help to reduce the level of environmental pollution, in particular by minimising the area used for storing and disposing of waste on industrial land, which can eliminate the risk of highly toxic com pounds entering the soil, waste water and the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Environmentally safe and energy saving systems for integrated and deep processing of minerals
The introduction of environmentally safe and resource-efficient processing and recycling of communal waste generating secondary raw materials and end products will dramatically reduce the use of sites for the dumping of solid household waste, which will lead, on the one hand, to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale and, on the other hand, the replacement of a portion of traditional fuels. The waste processing and recycling market will grow actively, and correspondingly there is expected to be growth in the market for construction materials made from secondary raw materials.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Erosion of Governance
Erosion of Governance the decline of the traditional world order. Direct democracy: As power is shifting more into the hands of individuals, direct democracy has the potential to severely affect the trajectory of several political and economic debates. Consider the 2016 Brexit Referendum in the United Kingdom, which resulted in a 52% to 48% vote to leave the European Union. Direct democracy played a major role in this referendum as every vote mattered in a race with such tight margins. Decentralization: Historically, transactions were managed with the use of handwritten accounting ledgers in which the type, amount, and parties of a transaction were captured. Over the years, this private ledger has evolved with the advent of computing. Today, we see the emergence of a decentralized form of governance aided by technology: the blockchain. The blockchain is an open-source distributed ledger system to which an infinite number of parties can contribute, promoting accountability and trust in a system previously managed by a few. Resource disputes: Land and sea disputes have always existed but as governance models shift and resource scarcity rises, territorial disputes have started to have significant environmental undertones. For example, recently an international tribunal voted that China’s claim to territorial rights to the oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea had no legal basis, and that its actions (such as the construction of artificial islands) had endangered the marine environment and interfered with the Philippine’s fishing and oil industries. Free markets: Support for free market ideologies has started to grow as societies begin to get tired of a series of public policies that are thought to benefit only the rich. With socioeconomic inequities widening, the clamor for a reduction in government intervention is at an all-time high and the desire to return to a free market economy in which the “invisible hand” directs outcomes is gaining traction. Alternative governments: As political tensions increase, countries become more nationalistic, and socioeconomic inequities continue to divide nation states, the old models of global governance are being tested and challenged. New, alternative governments are rising to power, capitalizing on the pervasive frustration felt by the middle class and the lack of consensus about collaborative governance.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Ethical and Regulatory Practices
In the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC), the lawfulness of an attack on a military objective must be kept under review during the planning stage and execution phase; attacks are cancelled or suspended where it is realised that a target is not a military objective, or that disproportionate collateral damage will result. While the desire to minimise military casualties will spur the further development of autonomous systems for a variety of tasks, involving risk to human life, the extent to which autonomous systems can meet the requirements of the LOAC will determine how widespread their use would become.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence