Trends Identified
Urban World
The number and scale of cities continues to grow across the globe — driven by rapid urbanization in emerging markets and continued urbanization in mature markets. The United Nations (UN) reports that 54% of the world’s population currently live in cities, and by 2050, this proportion will increase to 66%. In order to harness the economic benefi ts of urbanization, policy-makers and the private sector must do effective planning and attract sustained investment in railroads, highways, bridges, ports, airports, water, power, energy, telecommunications and other types of infrastructure. Effective policy responses to the challenges that cities face, including climate change and poverty, will be essential to making cities of the future competitive, sustainable and resilient.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY
Urban Oasis
As in the Middle Ages, cities rapidly assume increased importance, as national governments cannot deliver on overall economic growth. Cities are a magnet for the brightest and most talented. Well-run cities spawn and use new technologies, helping to make them self-sufficient in terms of resources. They seek special political privileges and autonomy.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Upcycling carbon
Urgently cutting carbon emissions at source is essential to mitigating catastrophic climate change, and negative emissions are needed to keep us on the well below 2°C pathway. Business is increasingly discovering ways to upcycle carbon, generating more value, emitting less and accelerating carbon negative technologies.
2018
Global opportunity report
DNV GL
Unrest in Iran
Unrest in the Middle East is always concerning for investors, especially ones who pay attention to the price of oil. While the recent protests in Iran will likely be contained to that region, if things flare up further, and if it does disrupt oil production — the country produces about 4.4 million barrels of oil per day — then we could see energy prices spike, says Hormozi.
2018
6 global trends that can derail your portfolio in 2018
CNBC
Unmanned aerial vehicles/ Drones
The proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – commonly known as drones – that are easy to use and low cost is leading to their widespread deployment in aerial inspection tasks, mapping physical and social phenomena, providing unmanned cargo deliveries, and taking aerial photography and video. There is a clear opportunity to transform the way development organisations collect and deliver data and physical objects, enabling these tasks to be undertaken faster, safer, cheaper, more efficiently and more accurately than ever before.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Universal flu vaccine
The development of universal flu vaccine that can prevent influenza could improve the quality of life of the people who suffer from flu every year. The universal flu vaccine related technology needs to identify the certain parts of antigen that is well kept during the evolution process to be practically applied widely, in order to optimize its antigenicity for development.
2012
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2012
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
United States Transition
The status, culture and actions of the US will have a decisive effect on the evolution of the international system, as it adjusts to an uneven, possibly unbalanced transition from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Uneven growth, increasing inequality
Technological development seems to portend a fundamental change in the relationship between productivity and employment, as shown in Figure 2. This means that the economy can grow without producing many jobs, a trend with particular import in those countries that still have a growing youth population – countries that tend to be at the bottom of the global power scale. In spite of the democratization of at least some forms of technology, there is little reason to expect decreasing inequality. Rather, trends of increasing economic inequality – particularly the growth of the very rich – are likely to continue. Economic growth will be driven by technology that has the potential to increase the power of large corporations. There will be more consolidation of large businesses: a trend well underway, as a quick glance at the airline or any other major industry will show. In wealthy countries, labour-intensive work will increasingly be outsourced to Asia and there will be more automation/robots in sectors where unskilled workers have traditionally found jobs, giving rise to a permanent underclass of unemployment.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Uneven and unequal
For the past three decades, there has been a steady decline in poverty rates in the developing world. This progress is anticipated to continue, not least in countries such as China and India. Yet the contrast between rich and poor remains stark.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School