Trends Identified
Changing Energy Mix
The energy mix will evolve responding to cost, availability and technological developments. There will be continued utilisation of all current energy sources, and fossil fuels are likely to continue to account for over 75% of total energy usage.174 Oil will remain the dominant fuel, given its importance in the transportation sector and the availability of infrastructure that supports its distribution.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing domestic determinants
As demonstrated most recently by the Arab Spring, however, the possibility of widespread changes in the relationship between the governing and the governed is likely. The era of dictators seems to be coming to an end – at least, of dictatorships as we know them – although it is still too early to tell. The power of social media, rising standards of living, increasing access to education, and urbanization will all drive citizens to demand more of their governments.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The world is currently experiencing a major shift in health problems related to economic development and changing lifestyles. Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (such as HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). Non-communicable diseases are also the most important cause of death in the world and are typically associated with developed-world lifestyles. But although communicable diseases are globally in decline, they still pose a significant health burden, especially in the developing world. A third factor in changing health conditions is the persistent threat of pandemics.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Changing Demographics
Future demographics will be driven by diverse effects. The world’s population is expected to reach more than 8 billion by 2030,28 but this growth will be unbalanced with varying regional effects. The average age of most Western populations is forecast to increase from the early to the mid-40s by 2030.29 Given higher birth and immigration rates, the United States will remain the youngest of the leading powers, while China’s population will age more rapidly given its increased longevity and lower birth rates. Accordingly, China will join Japan, Europe and Russia as one of the most rapidly ageing societies. India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country, whereas Russia and Brazil are likely to follow divergent paths with expected strong growth in Brazil and population decline in Russia. By 2030, the African continent is anticipated to have the fastest growing population.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Changing Demographics
The global population is likely to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.8 billion by 2040.140 The developing world will account for most of the growth, remaining relatively youthful, in contrast to the developed world and China, which will experience little population growth and undergo significant increases in median age.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Changing consumer behavior
26% of responding CEOs answered that they were 'extremely concerned'
2018
Global CEO survey
PWC
Challenges to governance
Emerging powers are increasingly challenging establishedglobalgovernanceinstitutionsandrequestinggreaterroles.Existing governance structures, particularly in weak and failing states, are not sufficiently addressing the requirements of the broader population.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
CEOs will work hard to become more inclusive leaders — or leave.
The new generation of workers expects a different kind of leadership and has now reached the critical mass where their opinion is corporate law. “We were primarily led by 'my way or the highway' type leaders and that does not work with this environment,” says Carla Harris, vice chairman and managing director at Morgan Stanley. “I think you're going to see more leaders looking for leadership development or leadership guidance on how to be more collaborative, how to spur innovation, how to teach people how to fail and how to innovate. I think you're going to see far more money spent on speakers and resources around that.” Not immediately, but over time executives who don’t make that effort and pivot will be pushed out, she warns.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
CEOs Take the Reins
Honestly, it’s about time and while I’m putting this as my closing prediction, it is also the one that has me the most nervous. Countless studies have shown an overwhelming desire from employees to see digital transformation start at the very top of the company, however, trends are still showing that the task is being too often delegated to IT, Marketing or HR departments. So even though we’ve seen a range of C-suite leaders charged with taking the reins of digital transformation, I believe that the CEO will (must) finally step up in 2019, realizing digital transformation isn’t going anywhere. They’ll be making it more of a priority to hire for digital transformation, recognizing the critical nature of building cultures that can change, and the value of reskilling employees and hiring for agility—learning to trust data more than ever before. That’s good news for all companies in 2019.
2018
Top 10 Digital Transformation Trends For 2019
Forbes
Centrality of Computer Networks
A globally connected and networked world creates a universal availability of information. Technological innovation is rapidly delivering to the average citizen the benefit of a readily accessible vast collective knowledge and intellectual capital. However, with the significant advances in sensor networks and algorithms, there will be a growing capability for almost every aspect of a citizen’s life to be monitored by the state or other entities such as corporations.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO