Trends Identified
Aging populations
The baby boomer generation powered a long but temporary surge in labor force growth. Now this group is moving into retirement, and labor force growth is slowing. That, in turn, imperils growth.
2018
Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality
Bain and Company
Aging populations
Simultaneously, fertility is falling and the world’s population is graying dramatically (Exhibit 3). Aging has been evident in developed economies for some time, with Japan and Russia seeing their populations decline. But the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and will then sweep across Latin America. For the first time in human history, the planet’s population could plateau in most of the world and shrink in countries such as South Korea, Italy, and Germany.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
Aging
Aging the changes in values, cultures, and priorities across generations. Intra-generational fairness: Striking the balance between the present and future has always had its challenges, but as demographics, political structures, and technological advances collide, the intra-generational equity issues are gaining a front and center seat. Demographic trends suggest that our population is aging dramatically and at a faster pace than the regular population. Digital rift: The rapid flux of technology and digitalization of the world have fundamentally shifted the ways in which we operate. For example, as mobile technology has grown exponentially in the past decade, it has given a distinct advantage to the millennials and generations X, Y, and Z who more quickly adopt the change. For example, a Pew Research Study found that seniors continued to lag behind all Americans when it came to cell phone ownership, broadband access, and even using the Internet at all. Resource footprint: While not wholly attributable to an aging population, the behaviors and tendencies of this demographic may point to indirect effects on the environment and our planet. For example, data has suggested that as older people retire, particularly in developed and Western countries, their level of leisure consumption and travel rises creating impacts on CO2 and greenhouse emissions. Silver agers: As the Baby Boomer generation prepares to retire, economists are predicting “a silver tsunami” in the workforce, a massive simultaneous exiting in the workforce of the population aged 65 and older. This creates a fundamental change in the way our labor market will operate as employers compete for talent and seek to replace the loyalty, skillsets, and networks lost. Gerontocracy: As societies age, so too does the age of our electorates. Coupled with political apathy and under-representation of the younger generation in governing bodies, this points to an interesting future for our political systems as the value structures and desires of the young and the old diverge.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Agility and innovation
A number of innovative approaches that began in software development are now being adapted by organizations for non-IT products and processes—including agile, scrum, kanban, design thinking, and other creative methodologies.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Agile Robots
Replacing the canary in a coalmine
2017
Top 50 Emerging Technologies 2017
Frost & Sullivan
Ageless World
Life expectancy reaches ninety years in Western countries. Human enhancement breakthroughs mean middle age begins at sixty. Retirement ages rise. The young are not being promoted with everyone working longer.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Ageing societies
Since life expectancy will continue to increase, the median age will rise and aging of population will even accelerate. Globally, the median age will move up by 5.1 years, from 29 today to 34 in 2030. Between 1990 and 2010, the increase was 4.7 years, up from 24 in 1990.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Ageing nations
The world’s population is getting older, with the population over 60 growing fastest.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Ageing and uneven population developments
Over the coming decades the overall population of the EU is projected to grow but it will be much older than it is now.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)