Trends Identified
Rising input and commodity costs
17% of KPMG member firm advisors answered that this trend has a large negative impact for the user organizations.
2015
Top trends and predictions for 2015 and beyond
KPMG
Rising geostrategic competition
In the years following the Cold War, the prevailing view was that the world had moved towards a liberal, democratic consensus. The break-up of the Soviet bloc, the integration of Russia and China into the global economic system and a fresh wave of democratic transitions, from Latin America to Eastern Europe, led many to believe that superpower rivalries were finished. Globalization, the free market and the ‘interdependence’ of countries would make wars less likely, while a greater role was forecast for multilateral bodies like the United Nations in responding to issues that put everyone at risk.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Rising consumption of raw materials and water. Rising pressure on land and global food insecurity
Every European citizen consumes 16 tonnes of materials annually, of which six tonnes are wasted, with half going to landfills. This consumption pattern stands in stark contrast to limited and increasingly expensive resources. Businesses are facing rising costs for essential raw materials and minerals, their scarcity and price volatility are having a damaging effect on the economy. These consumption patterns put further pressure on sources of minerals, metals and energy, and stocks of fish, timber, water, fertile soils, clean air, biomass and biodiversity.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Rise of the middle class
Mobility is not just about geography; there is also an integral socioeconomic dimension. Over the next 40 years, billions more people are expected to join the global middle class.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Rise of the individual
Advances in global education, health and technology have helped empower individuals like never before, leading to increased demands for transparency and participation in government and public decision-making. These changes will continue, and are ushering in a new era in human history in which, by 2022, more people will be middle class than poor.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Rise of anti-EU, anti-establishment movements
The economic and financial crisis has put pressure on the political fabric of EU integration. Anti-establishment and populist parties on the far left and far right are emerging throughout the EU. Exploiting the public sense of economic insecurity and fractured national identity, these parties blame the EU for job losses, public spending cuts and rising immigration.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Rise of aggressive nationalism
With the rise of the new and emerging economies, an ongoing power struggle for global leadership and resources has created a great deal of uncertainty and instability in the international state system. Largely unresolved sustainable development issues and the competition for finite resources present a potential trigger for war. In the uncertain geopolitical environment, nation states are the key actors. Economic powerhouses, including the USA, Germany and a number of the newly industrialized countries, act as leadership poles and dominate international decision-making structures. With an increase in international tensions, the economies of the leading powers are largely driven by national military-industrial complexes.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Right-speed IT - Living between black and white
Many IT organizations are progressing beyond the traditional single-speed delivery models that work well for high-torque enterprise operations but not for high-speed innovation. While some do have needs at both ends of the speed spectrum, they often find that bridging the gap between the two is difficult. A growing number of CIOs are building capabilities that link the two edge points or operate along the continuum, with targeted investments in process, technology, and talent to reengineer the business of IT, enabling delivery at the right speed for the business.
2016
Tech trends 2016 - innovating in the digital era
Deloitte
Reviewing the legality of weapons, means and methods of warfare with autonomous capabilities
Artificial intelligence and robotics have made great strides in the past three decades. One major outcome of innovation in these fields has been the remarkable progress of autonomy in weapon systems and the networks in which they are embedded. The advance of autonomy is a notable technological development in the sense that it fundamentally changes the way the military can field forces and make decisions, lethal or otherwise, on the battlefield. This chapter explores the implications of this development for the conduct of Article 36 reviews.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of military human enhancement technologies
A third emerging technology area that is expected to shape the future of warfare is the enhancement of military personnel, known as ‘military human enhancement’ (MHE). MHE technologies are not stand-alone weapons or means of warfare, but are tech- nologies designed to improve human warfighting capabilities. It is therefore not obvi- ous whether, and if so how, the requirements of Article 36 apply in this area.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)