Trends Identified
We will reach peak outrage.
In the last couple of years, public opinion has been driven by "polarized tribes," says Willow Bay, dean of the USC Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism: “Outrage has been modified, optimized, personalized and, of course, monetized.” Outrage, like fear, is helpful in the short term but unsustainable in the long term, she says. “Many do not want to live in a state of semi-permanent outrage, they're simply tired of it,” she adds. “And I believe increasingly, people are going to want to reclaim consensus, collaboration and shared values rather than polarizing ones.” While Bay is referring to the United States, any country where people discuss politics on social media will recognize a version of this. She points to a study by More In Common which showed that 67% of Americans did not conform to partisan ideology or had disengaged from politics. They’ve been dubbed the “exhausted majority.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
We will ask ourselves hard questions about what free speech means.
"This isn’t about the death of free speech on college campuses, which sometimes can’t find a hall to host a political provocateur on short notice. It’s about a deeper and more deeply fraught idea that has already been embraced by Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, that European-style censorship may be necessary. Maybe there are ideas so obnoxious, like the belief that the parents of students slain in a mass shooting are part of an anti-gun conspiracy, that we shouldn’t let them be amplified endlessly on the Internet. Or maybe we should be uncomfortable that these censorship decisions are being made by a few tech leaders, who historically have had little interest in either the journalistic principles that have guided other media magnates, or the costs of paying human beings to gather and weigh facts. It’s unclear to me how we quash or validate dangerous ideas except through vigorous, open debate, but even I have to admit that this hasn't worked well recently. What we all know now is that the case for free speech is weaker now than it has been in 50 years."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
We are finally going to spend more time online than watching TV.
The lines will cross some time in 2019: Around the world, people will start spending more hours a day on the Internet than watching television. The glass-half-empty way to look at it is people are turning away from legacy media, says Viacom President and CEO Bob Bakish. The glass-half-full vision: “There is more content being consumed today than ever before in history,” he adds. For Viacom, that has meant expanding its intellectual property across many platforms or creating shows for third-party streaming sites. “We do work with folks that maybe didn't exist 10 years ago, and started getting into the media business five years ago,” he says. “It's a year of a mixed economy and a mixed ecosystem. And that's the world of the future.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
We are eating much less meat
Rather like our grandparents, we will treat meat as a treat rather than a staple, writes Tim Benton, Professor of Population Ecology at the University of Leeds, UK. It won’t be big agriculture or little artisan producers that win, but rather a combination of the two, with convenience food redesigned to be healthier and less harmful to the environment.
2016
Eight predictions for 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Water harvesting from air
Example of Organizationsactive in the area: Permalution (US), Sun to Water (US).
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Water
Assuming average economic growth and no efficiency gains, annual global water requirements would grow by 53% from 4,500 billion m3 today to 6,900 billion m3 in 2030. Annual per capita water consumption will increase by 27% to 830 m3 in 2030, up from 651 m3 today. However, since accessible water is limited to 4,200 billion m3 per year (3,500 billion m3 of surface water and 700 billion m3 of ground water), there would be a shortfall of 2,700 billion m3 in 2030. This shortfall will be eliminated. The water shortage will drive water prices up, making major R&D investments in water technology profitable and necessary, which will in turn significantly reduce the amount of water wasted.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Wastewater is an asset, not a liability
Water is one of our most precious resources, yet our infrastructure is failing. Driven by global population growth and rising water scarcity, the UN reports that 75 percent of the world’s available freshwater is already polluted. Under-investment in water management is exacerbating the problem, causing serious impacts on human health and the environment. A key challenge is the high capital cost, and high energy requirements, of current wastewater treatment and management systems. By 2020 I predict that a new class of distributed systems, powered by advances in our ability to use biotechnology to extract resources, such as energy, from waste, and the dropping cost of industrial automation, will begin to change our approach to managing water globally. Rather than a liability, wastewater will be viewed as an environmental resource, providing energy and clean water to communities and industry, and ushering in a truly sustainable and economical approach to managing our water resources.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)