Trends Identified

Photonics and light technologies
Since the invention of the laser in 1960, photonics technologies have been further developed and have emerged in applications like communications, lighting, displays, health, manufacturing bringing about major improvements and innovations. Photonics is now everywhere around us and in everyday products like DVD players and mobile phones. In 2005, the European Commission established the European Technology Platform in Photonics: "Photonics21". In 2009, the European Commission recognised Photonics as one of the Key Enabling Technologies and in 2013 it created the Public Private Partnership in Photonics. In Photonics the stakeholders develop a vision and a roadmap of photonics as a well-defined science leading to disruptive break- throughs in telecommunications, life sciences, manufacturing, lighting and displays, sensors and education.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Philosophies
It is hard to deny that the past few centuries have been Western centuries—the economic power and military might of the US and Europe were, and still are, unparalleled. Some of the philosophies characteristic of the modern West—globalisation, free trade capitalism and liberal democracy— have become the de facto organising principles of the world. These three organising principles have advanced science, raised the standards of living of hundreds of millions, and freed many from tyranny, oppression, sickness and poverty. While some hope that these principles will gain further traction, it is growing apparent that they may be threatened by the consequences they are producing. Even as adherence to these philosophies have benefited many, some appear to have benefitted far, far more than others. This inequality, along with growing awareness of it, has in recent years blossomed and borne strange fruit. The votes for Brexit in the UK and for President Donald Trump in the US were arguably expressions of a deep anger at the elite few who have hogged the rewards of progress. But alternative organising principles are emerging. As the UK and US enter a period of political turbulence, the “China model” appears to offer political stability. Political philosopher Daniel Bell argues that the rise of China and Beijing’s resolve to tackle longer-term challenges, for example, make the Chinese model of political meritocracy more attractive. This involves rigorous selection of top leaders based on performance over decades, at provincial and national levels, and on virtue. Oman and the UAE are Gulf states ruled by monarchies whose legal systems extensively incorporate Sharia law. Yet they are widely reputed for high levels of modernisation and thriving economies. Others seek to smooth the rough edges of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism: inequality and marginalisation. Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, for example, is developing a “New Democracy” to bolster inclusion—by providing more information to citizens so they can take part in decision-making. Which way the world will turn is uncertain.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Pervasive sensors
2006
Global Technology Revolution 2020
RAND Corporation
Personalized medicine, nutrition and disease prevention
As the global population exceeds 7 billion people – all hoping for a long and healthy life – conventional approaches to ensuring good health are becoming less and less tenable, spurred on by growing demands, dwindling resources and increasing costs. Advances in areas such as genomics, proteomics and metabolomics are now opening up the possibility of tailoring medicine, nutrition and disease prevention to the individual. Together with emerging technologies like synthetic biology and nanotechnology, they are laying the foundation for a revolution in healthcare and well-being that will be less resource intensive and more targeted to individual needs.
2012
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2012
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Personalised medicine
Personalised medicine has the potential to offer safer and better treatments and diets, earlier diagnostics and prevention. No longer based on averages or statistics, but on what you need, when you need it, while taking into account your specific genome, biochemistry, environment and behaviour. Citizens will actively manage their health through sensoring devices, mobile apps etc. which can eventually lead to advanced tools such as personal medical avatar.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Personal Lifelog
Personal lifelog collects and classifies all the information that has been obtained or experienced during one’s daily life. The technology facilitates search and retrieval of information whenever it is needed.
2009
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2009
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Personal digital shields
Example of Organizationsactive in the area:2 No example found.
2018
Table of disruptive technologies
Imperial College London
Persistent jobless growth
The term ‘persistent jobless growth’ refers to the phenomenon in which economies exiting recessions demonstrate economic growth while merely maintaining – or, in some cases, decreasing – their level of employment. The scale and signi cance of this problem is evident in the high placing
of this trend, an increase even over last year’s report, when persistent structural employment was ranked as the third most concerning trend.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Perovskite Solar Cells
The silicon solar cells that currently dominate the world market suffer from three fundamental limitations. A promising new way of making high-efficiency solar cells, using perovskites instead of silicon, could address all three at once and supercharge the production of electricity from sunlight. The first major limitation of silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells is that they are made from a material that is rarely found in nature in the pure, elemental form needed. While there is no shortage of silicon in the form of silicon dioxide (beach sand), it takes tremendous amounts of energy to get rid of the oxygen attached to it. Typically, manufacturers melt silicon dioxide at 1500–2000 degrees Celsius in an electrode arc furnace. The energy needed to run such furnaces sets a fundamental lower limit on the production cost of silicon PV cells and also adds to the emissions of greenhouse gases from their manufacture. Perovskites—a wide-ranging class of materials in which organic molecules, made mostly of carbon and hydrogen, bind with a metal such as lead and a halogen such as chlorine in a three-dimensional crystal lattice—can be made much more cheaply and with fewer emissions.Manufacturers can mix up batches of liquid solutions and then deposit the perovskites as thin films on surfaces of virtually any shape, no furnace needed. The film itself weighs very little. Those features thus eliminate the second big limitation of silicon solar cells, which is their rigidity and weight. Silicon PV cells work best when they are flat and housed in large, heavy panels. But those panels make large-scale installations very expensive, which is in part why you typically see them on rooftops and big solar “farms.” The third major limitation of conventional solar cells is their power conversion efficiency, which has been stuck at 25 percent for 15 years. When they were first described, perovskites offered much lower efficiency. In 2009, perovskite cells made of lead, iodide and methylammonium converted less than 4 percent of the sunlight that hit them into electricity. But the pace of improvement in perovskites has been phenomenal, thanks in part to the fact that thousands of different chemical compositions are possible within this class of material. By 2016, perovskite solar-cell efficiencies were above 20 percent—a five-fold improvement in just seven years and a stunning doubling in efficiency within just the past two years. They are now commercially competitive with silicon PV cells, and the efficiency limits of perovskites could be far higher still. Whereas silicon PV technology is now mature, perovskite PVs continue to improve rapidly. Researchers still need to answer some important questions about perovskites, such as how durable they will be when exposed to years of weathering and how to industrialize their production to churn out quantities large enough to compete with silicon wafers in the global market. But even a relatively small initial supply of these new cells could be important in bringing solar power to remote locations that are not yet connected to any electrical grid. When paired with emerging battery technology, perovskite solar cells could help transform the lives of 1.2 billion people who currently lack reliable electricity (see “Next Generation Batteries page 7”).
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Perfect Online Privacy
Computer scientists are perfecting a cryptographic tool for proving something without revealing the information underlying the proof.
2018
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018
MIT Technology Review