Trends Identified
Scarcity
Scarcity the unsustainable consumption of our natural resources.Middle class angst: Propelled by growth, urbanization, and a concentration of wealth, a global middle class has emerged with varying sets of values and needs. This group still faces significant barriers in the way of economic resources and a result of wealth inequities, and a pervasive frustration has emerged with the social status quo. Innovation: Scarcity is a tale often told which results in negative consequences but in the case of technology, the scarcity of resources is prompting new and innovative ways of managing, saving, and in some cases creating new resources to mitigate growing challenges. Innovation prizes are offered to teams who can come up with unique solutions to societal challenges (e.g., Water XPRIZE). Sustainability: The limitation of natural resources has led to a significant focus on environmental sustainability, resulting in the rise of new markets, an active lobbyist and political base, and renewed efforts in social responsibility. “Going green” has become a business strategy, and new players specifically targeting environmental concerns have risen in prominence. Consumer watchdog groups such as Greenpeace continue to lobby for change. Qualitative growth: In a market-driven economy, growth is often synonymous with progress and high performance. However, unbridled growth over the past several decades has placed a high toll on our resources and capacity, necessitating more efficient and quality-oriented means of production in order to sustain current levels of consumption. Wealth distribution: As families continue to pull themselves out of the global recession, the stark truth remains that the socioeconomic order has tilted further towards inequity as 1% of the population is now as rich as the rest of the world combined. As the rich have grown richer and the poor have grown poorer, a new global middle class has emerged with a new set of values and priorities which now dictate political discourse. Politicians’ platforms globally contain policies and proposals to affect the inequities in wealth.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Blurring Boundaries
Blurring Boundaries the emergence of business ecosystems across traditional silos. Melting pots: As ICT technologies have permeated the fabric of our lives, we have entered an age of inundation with data and stories which have made decision-making a more challenging feat. While perhaps traditionally, individuals would fall in line with traditional societal expectations with regard to careers, interpersonal relationships, and political beliefs, today there is much more fluidity between one choice and another, leading to a culture of increased autonomy and thoughtful ambivalence. Co-development: As business ecosystems have formed, convening players across traditional silos, a swath of new opportunity in co-development and collaboration has emerged. In part this has emerged because of a blurring of the producerconsumer boundary, as consumer usage data and metrics feed into the design of new products and services versus in the past, when consumers were merely the recipient. Mass epidemics: An unintended consequence of open borders, free movement, and climate change, mass public health epidemics have begun to increase in outbreak frequency and impact. Blurring boundaries between species create new forms of antibody-resistant bacteria which affect animals and humans in significant ways. Mosquito-borne infections such as Dengue fever, West Nile virus, and malaria are transmitted across borders, often from affected countries in Africa and Asia. Shadow markets: As boundaries have blurred, the line between the traditional sectors and shadow markets has emerged, creating market complexity. A major contributor to the 2008 financial crisis was the emergence of a shadow market in financial services, in which risky loans were repackaged and sold as triple-A bonds. The opacity of these transactions was a critical contributor to the downfall of the big banks. Nation state 2.0:In recent years, there have been several political conflicts in which regions are demanding sovereignty as they protest against the political structures and physical borders within which they exist. Some conflicts have been in existence for many years, such as the political disputes between Hong Kong and the People’s Republic of China. Some states have succeeded in their political disputes to form new nation states, such as the 2011 creation of the Republic of South Sudan.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Erosion of Governance
Erosion of Governance the decline of the traditional world order. Direct democracy: As power is shifting more into the hands of individuals, direct democracy has the potential to severely affect the trajectory of several political and economic debates. Consider the 2016 Brexit Referendum in the United Kingdom, which resulted in a 52% to 48% vote to leave the European Union. Direct democracy played a major role in this referendum as every vote mattered in a race with such tight margins. Decentralization: Historically, transactions were managed with the use of handwritten accounting ledgers in which the type, amount, and parties of a transaction were captured. Over the years, this private ledger has evolved with the advent of computing. Today, we see the emergence of a decentralized form of governance aided by technology: the blockchain. The blockchain is an open-source distributed ledger system to which an infinite number of parties can contribute, promoting accountability and trust in a system previously managed by a few. Resource disputes: Land and sea disputes have always existed but as governance models shift and resource scarcity rises, territorial disputes have started to have significant environmental undertones. For example, recently an international tribunal voted that China’s claim to territorial rights to the oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea had no legal basis, and that its actions (such as the construction of artificial islands) had endangered the marine environment and interfered with the Philippine’s fishing and oil industries. Free markets: Support for free market ideologies has started to grow as societies begin to get tired of a series of public policies that are thought to benefit only the rich. With socioeconomic inequities widening, the clamor for a reduction in government intervention is at an all-time high and the desire to return to a free market economy in which the “invisible hand” directs outcomes is gaining traction. Alternative governments: As political tensions increase, countries become more nationalistic, and socioeconomic inequities continue to divide nation states, the old models of global governance are being tested and challenged. New, alternative governments are rising to power, capitalizing on the pervasive frustration felt by the middle class and the lack of consensus about collaborative governance.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Displacement
Displacement the movement of people, ideas, and challenges across the globe. Mass migration: As terrorism and violence in the Middle East and surrounding nations grow, the world is facing a massive international refugee crisis. Half of Syria’s pre-war population has been killed or forced to flee their homes and at least 4.7 million Syrian refugees have fled to neighboring countries, with at least 1 million applying for asylum within Europe. The refugee crisis places immense pressure on the social support and political systems of European countries, and in some cases (e.g., Hungary and some Balkan countries), we see nations beginning to consider closing their borders as the pressure mounts. Infrastructure shift: The world is becoming more mobile and as a result, the infrastructure needed for our daily lives is shifting from roads and pathways to cell towers and digital networks. Our increasingly technological lifestyles demand constant connectivity, and as a result, bandwidth, reception, megahertz, and signal become more ubiquitous concepts. Internet-based economic activity was expected to reach US $4.2 trillion in the G-20 nations by 2016 and the digital economy was growing at about 10% per year (12-25% in emerging markets) to serve the more than 2.5 billion people connected to the Internet. Ecological pressure: Typically climate change and other environmental disasters are viewed as the drivers of displacement, but can also be affected quite significantly by migration patterns. As the world faces massive displacement due to political conflicts, for example, the pressure placed on our environmental ecosystems has risen. Refugee crises concentrate large numbers of people, resulting in strain on natural resources. Global supply chains: The liberalization of economic policies over the past several decades has contributed to a relaxing of trade barriers and free movement of labor and capital across boundaries, leading to a more rapid diffusion of ideas and cultures across political and geographic borders. As supply chains become increasingly international, countries have started to locate different stages of the production process in different locations. Allocation conflicts: As international wars and political conflict dominate the scene in many developing countries, resource fighting has led to the displacement of millions of residents. Consider the Eastern Congo, which has been undergoing a massive political conflict since the early 1990s, facing two international wars and multiple militia invasions. The value placed on its untapped raw mineral ores is around US $24 trillion and the political infighting to gain access to these resources has displaced millions of Congolese over the last several decades, who seek asylum in neighboring countries.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Development of technologies that empower consumers and communities
2016
Geostrategic risks on the rise
McKinsey
Growth of consumers in emerging economies/ changing consumer tastes
2016
Geostrategic risks on the rise
McKinsey
Adoption of big data and other data-driven management techniques
2016
Geostrategic risks on the rise
McKinsey