Trends Identified
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) seeks to endow machines with reasoning capabilities that may one day surpass those of human beings. While their full impact remains difficult to appraise, intelligent systems are likely to bring considerable productivity gains and lead to irreversible changes in our societies.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Individual Empowerment: More Unintended Consequences
The global middle class worries about falling back into poverty. Democratization lags and there is a loss of Western confidence in democracy. Citizenship becomes supplanted by self/group identity, spurred by the Internet.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Demographic Crunch
The West’s social welfare system is under serious threat, likely deteriorating over this period. China and other middle-income powers risk unsustainable health and pension costs in the next decade. Only raising retirement age and immigration will help mitigate aging and solve the skills gap, but immigration and retirement age increases are both politically sensitive.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Malthusian World for the Very Poorest
Half or more of the world’s population lives in areas of water scarcity. Climate change is undermining water and food security. The biggest impact will be in sub-Saharan Africa, which suffers overpopulation, poor governance, and low agricultural productivity. There is an increasing risk of endless poverty cycle for the poorest.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Technology with Increasing Downside
Job churn moves up the skills ladder as robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation become widespread. Terrorists move into higher technology, with devastating effects. The United States will remain the overall tech leader, with China making inroads. Technology increases inequalities within and between nations.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Conflict Risk at Highest Level since Cold War
The Ukraine crisis shows that economic interests can be sacrificed for political ambitions. Major state-on state conflict is no longer unthinkable. Virtually any part of post-Soviet space and Asia-Pacific could become areas of serious big-power competition.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
No End in Sight of Middle East Instability
Iraq and Syria are unlikely to be put back together. difficult reform efforts in Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are potentially destabilizing in the short term. Radical Islam and terrorism are not decreasing. A nuclear Iran remains an open question as Sunni-Shia tensions continue to escalate.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
China’s Swing Role
Whether China gets stuck in the middle-income trap is more than a domestic question. An angry China would be a dangerous regional and global spoiler. Without a growing China, global economic growth would dip.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
No Clear Path to Post-Western Order
A United States-led global system was premised on a politically and economically dominant West. Financial regionalization will eat away at the central role of the Anglo-Saxon financial model. The challenge will be to establish a new world order that maintains a modicum of cooperation despite values gaps.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Fragmented World
A dysfunctional Europe is absorbed in regional threats. Then United States gives up on the policeman role. Protectionism provides an initial domestic economic boost, but leads to lower global growth over the medium term. Russia and China become regionally dominant.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council