Trends Identified
Demographic change
During the next decades improved healthcare, more access to education and higher living standards will lead to a population increase. According to the UN and OESO the world population will increase to 9 billion people in 2050, with a peak of 9.2 billion in 2075. An additional two billion people in forty years. In other words, increased competition over scarce resources. The average life expectancy for each region differs, but on a global scale it will rise. As of 2030 a life expectancy of 106 will no longer be surprising. The notion ‘old age’ will have to be redefined. In many developed economies 55 years old is middle-aged now. If the global trend of people migrating to cities continues, more people will be living in cities than ever before (urbanisation). These cities can only be viable places if they are sustainable, smart and resilient.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Longer life
The average life expectancy in the West has risen extremely fast. In combination with a falling birth rate this leads to ageing of the population, and — consequently — turns care of the elderly into a challenge. Especially, when it comes to informal (family) care for women. The growing demand for healthcare is also felt on the labour market. Almost 75% of the primary caregivers is female, and more than 30% of the people caring for a family member also has a job [EC, 2012]. Work and informal caregiving are in each other’s way.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Global power shifts
State borders and geopolitical relationships resulted from centuries of voyages of discovery, from colonisation, decolonisation, wars and the Cold War. Much of the political unrest in the world is caused by the globalisation of the economy [Knox and Marston, 2011]. In addition, a global power shift is taking place. Asia is becoming more powerful. During the past ten years Asian countries have accounted for half of the global growth of the Gross National Product (GNP). All indications are that within the next ten years Asia will dominate Europe and the US. The fast rise of India and China will lead to a multi-polar world in which the US is no longer supreme.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
New connectivity
An increasing number of obligations and networks exists outside the family context. This leads to less cohesion in families and households, influenced by technological developments in mobile communication, social media and computers. Our social tissue appears to change from ‘blood relationships’ to ‘chosen relationships’. Relationships are increasingly driven by (temporary) affiliations and interests. The next generation, also called digital natives, will change the rules of the game. This generation will be a dominating power in the ageing West, even if economic growth is zero. Shortages on the labour market will force employers to be flexible or move away. The younger generation will demand more flexible and attractive labour conditions in line with their own ambitions. This generation will also be ‘hyperconnected’. Virtual online collaborative communities will be the best way to get things done.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Dynamism in emerging markets
Emerging markets are going through the simultaneous industrial and urban revolutions that began in the 18th century in England and in the 19th century in the rest of today’s developed world. In 2009, for the first time in more than 200 years, emerging markets contributed more to global economic growth than developed ones did. By 2025, emerging markets will have been the world’s prime growth engine for more than 15 years, China will be home to more large companies than either the United States or Europe, and more than 45 percent of the companies on Fortune’s Global 500 list of major international players will hail from emerging markets—versus just 5 percent in the year 2000.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
Technology and connectivity
We’re accustomed to seeing Moore’s law plotted on a logarithmic scale, which makes all this doubling look smooth. But we don’t buy computers logarithmically. As power increases, prices decrease, devices proliferate, and IT penetration deepens, aggregate computing capacity surges at an eye-popping rate: we estimate the world added roughly 5 exaflops of computing capacity in 2008 (at a cost of about $800 billion), more than 20 in 2012 (to the tune of just under $1 trillion), and is headed for roughly 40 this year (Exhibit 2). These extraordinary advances in capacity, power, and speed are fueling the rise of artificial intelligence, reshaping global manufacturing,3 and turbocharging advances in connectivity. Global flows of data, finance, talent, and trade are poised to triple in the decade ahead, from levels that already represent a massive leap forward.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
Aging populations
Simultaneously, fertility is falling and the world’s population is graying dramatically (Exhibit 3). Aging has been evident in developed economies for some time, with Japan and Russia seeing their populations decline. But the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and will then sweep across Latin America. For the first time in human history, the planet’s population could plateau in most of the world and shrink in countries such as South Korea, Italy, and Germany.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
CIO as venture capitalist - Trading on IT’s assets, talent, risk, and results
CIOs who want to help drive business growth and innovation will likely need to develop a new mindset and new capabilities. Like venture capitalists, CIOs should actively manage their IT portfolio in a way that drives enterprise value and evaluate portfolio performance in terms that business leaders understand— value, risk, and time horizon to reward. CIOs who can combine this with agility and align the desired talent can reshape how they run the business of IT.
2014
Tech trends 2014 - Inspiring Disruption
Deloitte
Cognitive analytics - Wow me with blinding insights, HAL
Artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing have moved from experimental concepts to potential business disruptors— harnessing Internet speed, cloud scale, and adaptive mastery of business processes to drive insights that aid real-time decision making. For organizations that want to improve their ability to sense and respond, cognitive analytics can be a powerful way to bridge the gap between the intent of big data and the reality of practical decision making.
2014
Tech trends 2014 - Inspiring Disruption
Deloitte
Industrialized crowdsourcing - Sometimes more is better
Enterprise adoption of the power of the crowd allows specialized skills to be dynamically sourced from anyone, anywhere, and only as needed. Companies can use the collective knowledge of the masses to help with tasks from data entry and coding to advanced analytics and product development. The potential for disruptive impact on cost alone likely makes early experimentation worthwhile, but there are also broader implications for innovation in the enterprise.
2014
Tech trends 2014 - Inspiring Disruption
Deloitte