Trends Identified
Technology and science: rapid, rapid change
The pace of technological and scientific innovation will increase. Computers will become smaller, faster, and cheaper, which means that more people, in both developed and developing countries, will be connected via the Internet. Mobile phone technology, now the dominant tool of communication in many regions, will reach close to global coverage in the coming generation.22 Technologies will become more than repositories of knowledge: they will be increasingly smarter, more autonomous, and more anthropomorphic, with voice- and gesture-based commands.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Uneven growth, increasing inequality
Technological development seems to portend a fundamental change in the relationship between productivity and employment, as shown in Figure 2. This means that the economy can grow without producing many jobs, a trend with particular import in those countries that still have a growing youth population – countries that tend to be at the bottom of the global power scale. In spite of the democratization of at least some forms of technology, there is little reason to expect decreasing inequality. Rather, trends of increasing economic inequality – particularly the growth of the very rich – are likely to continue. Economic growth will be driven by technology that has the potential to increase the power of large corporations. There will be more consolidation of large businesses: a trend well underway, as a quick glance at the airline or any other major industry will show. In wealthy countries, labour-intensive work will increasingly be outsourced to Asia and there will be more automation/robots in sectors where unskilled workers have traditionally found jobs, giving rise to a permanent underclass of unemployment.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing global patterns
At the international level, the relative power of Western liberal democracies will decline as they struggle to deal with both demographic and economic shifts, even as the power of other countries increases. While the trends seem clear that China’s power is rising while the US is declining as a hegemonic power, these are likely to develop over several generations. Power is slowly but clearly slipping from the Atlantic alliance to the Pacific region (although the differences within Asia are probably greater than those within the Atlantic region).
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Changing domestic determinants
As demonstrated most recently by the Arab Spring, however, the possibility of widespread changes in the relationship between the governing and the governed is likely. The era of dictators seems to be coming to an end – at least, of dictatorships as we know them – although it is still too early to tell. The power of social media, rising standards of living, increasing access to education, and urbanization will all drive citizens to demand more of their governments.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Climate change: more disasters
The likely trends over the next thirty years are for increases in the severity and intensity of sudden onset natural disasters, particularly those related to weather (storms, hurricanes, cyclones, flooding). These will increasingly affect urban populations, in part because there will simply be more people living in cities and in part because more people will be living on more marginal land. Climate change will also drive rural to urban migration.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Conflict: prolonged, simmering, and increasingly urban.
The first point to make about future trends in conflict is that it is likely that many of today’s simmering conflicts will continue to do so in the coming decades. Most conflict in the future is likely to be protracted, to be fought by armed groups for personal gain, and to be to be fought in cities. The lines are becoming more blurred between gangs, warlords, insurgents, child soldiers, paramilitary forces, and drug traffickers, all of whom will increasingly operate in urban environments. Finally, there is terrorism. As high-tech weapons become smaller, cheaper, and more widely available, they will be used by an even wider variety of groups than they are now.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Developing countries will dominate global trade
The weight of global economic activity is shifting from the G7 countries toward emerging economies. Over the next 50 years, this trend is expected to accelerate. On the most conservative projections, the economy of the G20 is expected to quadruple in size, rising from US$38 trillion in 2009 to US$160 trillion in 2060 in real dollar terms.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The global middle class will grow
The dramatic change in the global economic landscape will be both a cause and a consequence of the emergence of a new Global Middle and Rich class (GMR).4 At present, about a quarter of the global GMR population resides in developing countries. By 2030, the GMR population in developing countries will have overtaken that in advanced countries, and in 2060 about 60 percent of the world’s GMR population will reside in developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Commodity prices will continue to decline and fluctuate
Global GDP growth has consistently outpaced the demand for commodities. Though commodity prices are high now, creating improvements in the terms of trade for some African countries, it is expected to resume its downward trend. Thus, it is expected that commodity prices will continue to fall relative to manufactured goods and knowledge-intensive services.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Agricultural biotechnology will create a “gene revolution”
It is contended that by 2060, the Green Revolution will be supplanted by a Gene Revolution. Since the early 1980s, modern biotechnology has led to increasing knowledge of the scientific procedures needed to utilise gene-based techniques to improve agriculture. Agricultural biotechnology has the potential to transform African agriculture by raising agricultural productivity and farmers’ incomes. The potential benefits include yield increases in the staple food crops produced in tropical and semi-tropical environments, the creation of drought- and pest-resistant varieties, and shorter harvesting cycles, enabling the planting of several crops per season. Genetic engineering also enables cost-saving techniques, such as nitrogen fixation.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank