Trends Identified
Vulnerable employment is on the rise
With these improvements in employment projected to be modest, the number of workers in vulnerable forms of employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) is likely to increase in the years to come. Globally, the significant progress achieved in the past in reducing vulnerable employment has essentially stalled since 2012. In 2017, around 42 per cent of workers (or 1.4 billion) worldwide are estimated to be in vulnerable forms of employment, while this share is expected to remain particularly high in developing and emerging countries, at above 76 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively. Worryingly, the current projection suggests that the trend is set to reverse, with the number of people in vulnerable employment projected to increase by 17 million per year in 2018 and 2019.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing
Similarly, the global labour market has seen only weak progress in the area of working poverty. In 2017, extreme working poverty remained widespread, with more than 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries having a per capita household income or consumption of less than US$1.90 (PPP) per day. Overall, progress in reducing working poverty is too slow to keep pace with the growing labour force in developing countries, where the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018, or 40 per cent of all employed people.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Significant variations in employment outcomes continue to exist between regions and countries
The world continues to experience diverse trends in employment outcomes. Developed countries are expected to enter their sixth consecutive year of decreasing unemployment rates, falling to 5.5 per cent in 2018, the lowest rate since 2007. Yet many countries continue to report high rates of labour underutilization, with large shares of discouraged workers and growing incidence of involuntary part- time employment.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Inequalities in labour market outcomes persist
Underlying these aggregate labour market and social trends are disparities across a number of demographic groups. Gender disparities are of particular concern. On average, women are less likely to participate in the labour market, facing a global gender gap in participation of over 26 percentage points, and are less likely to find a job when they do participate. These gaps are particularly wide in Northern Africa and the Arab States, where women are twice as likely to be unemployed as men. Once in employment, women face segregation in terms of the sector, occupation and type of employment relationship, resulting in restricted access to quality employment. For instance, 82 per cent of women in developing countries are in vulnerable forms of employment in 2017, compared to 72 per cent of men.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Looking ahead, the projected structural shifts to the service sector could create complex pressures on job quality
Internal and external forces, such as technological progress, capital accumulation, globalization, demo- graphics and government policies, are expected to continue to spur the reallocation of employment across sectors of production. Across all income groups, an ever-increasing number of workers are projected to be employed in the service sector, while the employment share in agriculture is set to con- tinue its long-term downward trend. Furthermore, the share of manufacturing employment is expected to continue its decline in upper middle-income and developed countries, and to grow only marginally in lower middle-income ones. This confirms the ongoing trend of “premature deindustrialization”, whereby lower-income countries are seeing declining shares of industrial employment at earlier stages of development compared to developed countries.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
An ageing population will add further pressure to future labour market challenges
As a result of rising life expectancy and declining birth rates, global population growth has considerably decelerated and this trajectory is expected to continue over the next few decades. One immediate implication of this slowdown is that growth of the global labour force will not be sufficient to compensate for the rapidly expanding pool of retirees, putting pressure on both the pension system and the labour market as a whole. In developed countries, where population ageing is considerably faster, it is estimated that, by 2030, there will be close to five persons aged 65 and over for every ten persons in the labour force, up from 3.5 in 2017.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Identity
Every citizen, resident and business needs to have an identity to access government services and participate in society and the economy. While this seems simple, the process is often complicated and in many contexts can be controversial. Governments are conceiving of new ways of providing identities to individuals though biometrics and emerging technologies such as blockchain. They are also helping businesses make better decisions about their brand identities in an increasingly competitive marketplace, and helping citizens demonstrate the unique combination of knowledge, skills and experiences that make up their own personal identities. In the modern interconnected world, governments and individuals are also raising questions about national identity and re-imagining what it means to be a citizen in an increasingly borderless world. Government innovators are exploring these many aspects of identity and pursuing initiatives that serve as essential building blocks of innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
System approaches
The complexities of today’s problems require systemic change rather than simple, incremental responses. Technology, environmental challenges and citizens’ dissatisfaction with “business as usual” are all putting pressure on governments to change their working methods and reach beyond simple solutions and linear equations of cause and effect. This marks an innovative paradigm shift in governance. Rather than layering interventions on top of one another, the public sector should repack policies in ways that allow them to get to the real purpose of change and deliver value to citizens. Human wants, needs and desires are complex, and the systems created to satisfy them are even more so. If simple models are used to analyse them, they will produce simple answers. As human lives and the problems that affect them are intertwined, innovative working methods are needed that take this complexity into account and provide solutions that actually work. One way to address these challenges is to apply a more systemic approach to innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
Inclusiveness and vulnerable populations
In the face of migration and ageing populations, uncertainties about the future of work and job automation, and continued gender and economic inequalities despite decades of attempted reforms, world governments are turning to innovation to help create more inclusive societies where no one is left behind – especially those who are most vulnerable. Many countries have rallied behind global initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), while some have acted on their own initiative when confronted with unexpected threats to the well-being of their people. The last few years have seen record levels of people displaced from their homes due to violence and conflict and environmental factors such as climate change, as well as global waves of nationalism that limit the ability of these migrants to integrate well into their new communities. The same period has witnessed targeted gender-inclusion initiatives and a reckoning for gender-based mistreatment, as well as continued disparities in pay and political inclusion. Other major issues are visible on the horizon, such as ageing populations and the displacement of jobs through automation. The world is at a crossroads with governments challenged to acknowledge new realities and create new solutions through innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
AI enablement
Putting AI to work by means of big data and feedback
2018
Corum Top Ten Disruptive Technology Trends 2018
Corum