Trends Identified
A “me first” world will be harder to steer.
Some of the institutions that since WWII have held the world together — the UN, NATO, G20 and more — are weakening, notes Stan McChrystal, CEO of the McChrystal Group and former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. What comes after is uncertain, he warns, because when you pull the key stone from the arch, things may fall apart that you did not expect. “Our challenge is we're in a ‘me first’ world now, and I mean ‘me first’ by nations, but also ‘me first’ by leaders, ‘me first’ by companies,” he explains. Leaders need to make decisions from a broader perspective and consider interdependencies, McChrystal says. If you go into a negotiation expecting to win everything and leave the other side weakened, he warns, “in many cases, what's happened is the very ecosystem we both depend upon is gone.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The office will empty out.
"With cities filling up and housing prices rising, employers will have to pay more for employees to afford an urban life. Some businesses will open an office in a smaller town; more will embrace employees’ working from home. The whole point of an office weakened years ago with the disastrous open floor-plan, a warren of people wearing headphones and messaging their brains out, together in name only. More recently, the movement to give working parents more flexibility has made managers hesitant to grade on attendance. And now, Slack, Github, Jira and other tools for virtual teams are being co-opted by workers of all stripes."A gradual process will, in 2019, reach a tipping point: The office will empty out. Working from home will change the most basic rhythm of industrial life. People will have more time to work, and also to play. What we’ll lose is the water cooler, which alongside the altar and the school entrance, was a place for us to connect with new people. Offices are also one of the last spots in an increasingly secular society for all of us to get a sense of community and purpose. I’ll be sorry to see them so diminished."
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
You'll have better access to your medical data.
Apple's move to make medical records available on the iPhone is likely to be the first domino in a move to democratize access to, and control of, patients’ health data. People who live in countries where health care is decentralized know that if they change doctors, their medical records typically don't follow them. And the entities that do have access to health care data, such as hospitals and insurance companies, typically don't share it, more for competitive reasons than patient-centric ones. But a behemoth like Apple could change the stakes. "I'd like us to get to the point where data is not seen as intellectual property," said Dr. Doug Fridsma, president and CEO of the American Medical Informatics Association. "If we don't have the ability to share data, you're going to stifle innovation." It's notable, he adds, that Apple — a company that does everything on its own terms, from operating systems to headphone jacks — is using the international FHIR standards for its Health app.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
The high street will band together.
The story is repeating itself in every country: From the famed big box stores of America to the high street chains of the U.K., physical retailers buckle as they face deep-pocketed online disruptors. “Things have never been more competitive,” says entrepreneur Naomi Simson, CEO of the Big Red Group in Australia, where Amazon launched with fanfare just a year ago. But smaller players are starting to band together to stand up to the giants, she says. “It might be through buying groups, marketplaces, associations, movements such as ‘buy local’... There will also be M&A,” she predicts. “The difference now is mindset. Business owners used to think the shop next door was competition. Now they know that there is safety in numbers.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Financial options will catch up to the modern worker
“If we want to provide the opportunity for people in the future to live financially healthy lives, the industry will need to rethink financial services that were designed for individuals that work a single job for his or her lifetime,” says Dan Schulman, CEO of PayPal. “Emerging technologies as well as socio-demographic changes are going to cause a shift in financial service needs and demands.” We can already see this trickle starting in the industry. The new “UltraFICO” credit score will be rolling out early next year. “It will take into account your banking behavior: Are you able to pay all of your bills? Are you making sure that you don’t go negative in that account?” Jill Schlesinger of CBS News explains. By changing the way loan providers think about credit, it opens a door for a younger generation shying away from credit cards and debt.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
CEOs will work hard to become more inclusive leaders — or leave.
The new generation of workers expects a different kind of leadership and has now reached the critical mass where their opinion is corporate law. “We were primarily led by 'my way or the highway' type leaders and that does not work with this environment,” says Carla Harris, vice chairman and managing director at Morgan Stanley. “I think you're going to see more leaders looking for leadership development or leadership guidance on how to be more collaborative, how to spur innovation, how to teach people how to fail and how to innovate. I think you're going to see far more money spent on speakers and resources around that.” Not immediately, but over time executives who don’t make that effort and pivot will be pushed out, she warns.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
College admissions will get personal.
“The two numbers that have signaled whether a student can get into a top college — test scores and high school grades — are being called into question as more institutions go test optional and grade inflation is on the rise,” says Jeff Selingo, a higher education strategist. “The recent Harvard lawsuit points to the need for colleges to shape their classes amid an influx of applications, particularly ensuring racial and economic diversity.” So, what’s next? There’s no one simple solution, but colleges will start to shift toward weighing the “whole” applicant, looking at accomplishments beyond the classroom, says Selingo. Colleges are already sampling new approaches, like a form that allows students to submit videos and written work to flesh out their application or a new College Board tool that allows officials to better understand not just the high school the student attended but also their neighborhood based on census data.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Gig economy jobs will get less miserable.
Both because the hardships of gig work are increasingly making headlines and because the U.S. labor market is so competitive, companies are paying more attention to their treatment of on-demand workers. Retail legend Ron Johnson, formerly of Apple and JCPenney, refused to use 1099 contractors when he started his new company, Enjoy, a technology delivery and setup service. Instead, he made everyone an employee with benefits and stock options. “The number one issue in this full employment economy we're in, is to create better jobs,” Johnson says. “You gotta make your employee your primary stakeholder. And if you treat them well, they'll take care of your customer.” Similarly, Rent The Runway CEO Jennifer Hyman decided to align hourly workers’ benefits with those of salaried professionals. “We are starting to see that it's changing retention, Hyman says. It's certainly changing the day-to-day culture within the warehouse.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
For respite, we will turn to inspirational commerce.
In an anxious world, we’re going to need more than a juice cleanse to take care of our exhausted psyches, writes Gina Bianchini, CEO of Mighty Networks. Health and wellness influencers, exhausted themselves, are shifting their models to building supportive communities and connecting their fans to each other, rather than amassing a large number of one-way followers — communities they can monetize through memberships or events. Bianchini writes: "While the first generation of e-commerce was about selling physical products online, this coming wave of 'inspirational commerce' is about creating opportunities for people to buy experiences and connections to realize their full potential.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Conscientious objectors rise up in the workforce.
In a tight labor market, professionals can afford to have principles. It’s starting with Google, always a bellwether of corporate culture, where in the past few months, employees have spoken up against the company launching a censored service in China, forced it to back out of a contract with the Pentagon and staged a walkout to protest sexual harassment in the workplace. “Employees at these companies are no longer going to stand for leadership doing things they just don’t believe in,” Ross Martin, Blackbird CEO, says. This instinct is particularly potent among Millennial and Gen Z workers, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman notes. “This idealism has opened a generational rift between managers and our younger protégés, who can sometimes be strident,” he says. “But their passion is one of the main reasons I’m excited about the future: The people just entering the workforce now will become the conscience of the corporation.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn