Trends Identified
Dominance of the commercial sector in technological development
The advances in defence technology developments/sales and space exploration/exploitation by commercial sectors have taken away the monopoly that used to be held by governments
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Technological dependencies
Both society, and defence and security, have increasingly depended on certain technologies which have become essential in everyday lives
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Globalization of financial resources
An increasingly interconnected global financial system makes it more vulnerable to attacks by both state and non-state actors
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Geopolitical dimension of resources
Emerging technologies and the exploration opportunities availed by climate change may allow the discovery of mineral and energy resources in previously inaccessible and possibly disputed regions as the High North
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Increased inequality
The bulk of the worlds population, the middle class, particularly in western society has felt the squeeze due to stagnation in real earnings after inflation adjustments, loss of benefits and overall compensation as the private sector has sought to reduce expanses by outsourcing support and labour costs and shift to part time versus full time employment.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Defence expenditures challenges in the West
A majority of NATO nations were able to change a decreasing defence spending trend into an increase in real terms 2016. political and national will would be required to sustain defence expenditures in competing priorities with limited budgets.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Environmental/climate change
The changes in climate change will bring challenges and opportunities. The changes to the climate imposes stresses on current ways of life, on individual's ability to subsist and on governments' abilities to keep pace and provide for the needs of their populations
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Natural disasters
Natural disasters will have increasing impact, partly due to overall increases in the severity and prevalence of severe weather events, but also due changes in the regions and times of year where these events may occur.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Reviewing the legality of cyber weapons, means and methods of warfare
One of the most remarkable phenomena in the realm of modern warfare in recent decades has been the emergence of cyberspace as a new warfighting domain. Cyberspace is now commonly depicted as the fifth warfighting domain, along with land, sea, air and space. The conduct of military operations in this domain, however, has few similarities with the other four. The question of whether existing rules of international humanitarian law (IHL) are adequate for regulating the conduct of cyber-operations has become a matter of contention among the community of international law scholars. This chapter explores the implications of this debate for the conduct of Article 36 reviews. It translates the product of academic discourse into concrete legal advice for Article 36 review practitioners and military lawyers advising commanders on the impact of international law on cyber-operations.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of weapons, means and methods of warfare with autonomous capabilities
Artificial intelligence and robotics have made great strides in the past three decades. One major outcome of innovation in these fields has been the remarkable progress of autonomy in weapon systems and the networks in which they are embedded. The advance of autonomy is a notable technological development in the sense that it fundamentally changes the way the military can field forces and make decisions, lethal or otherwise, on the battlefield. This chapter explores the implications of this development for the conduct of Article 36 reviews.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)