Trends Identified
A new era of global demographic decline
Global growth to 2050 is not expected to decline dramatically from its average historical levels. However, regional growth rates are expected to begin to decline across every region after 2030. Much of the global growth in recent decades has been driven by population growth. Long-term population estimates, however, reveal that growth in the global population is expected to see a dramatic decline from an average of 1.3% in the 1980-2014 period to 0.5% across the 2015-50 period. The slowdown in the growth rate of the global working-age population will be even starker, with a drop to 0.3% in the 2015-50 period, compared with an average growth rate of 1.7% in the 1980-2014 period.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
Global network development
Global networks will increasingly enable access to and provide information on commodities and capital assets. Global networks will increasingly be used for dissemination of post-truth information
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Climate change & ecosystem at risk
Global warming and strategies to offset carbon emissions are two of the most prevalent issues of the 21st century. As economies continue to grow, so too does the demand for energy and, as a result, CO2 emissions. As part of Roland Berger’s leading Trend Compendium 2030 , this in-depth analysis takes a detailed look at what growing energy demands mean for the future of industry. We investigate three key components – global warming, rising CO2 emissions, and the obstacles faced by our ecosystems – to uncover the global challenges that climate change will bring with it.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Climate Change
Global warming, rise of sea levels and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe recently. Impacts related to climate change are evident across regions and in many sectors important to society such as human health, agriculture and food security, water supply, transportation, energy, ecosystems, and others and are expected to become increasingly disruptive throughout this century and beyond.
2017
Science & Technology Foresight Malaysia
Malaysia, Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Sport: 'Broadcasts will use holograms'
Globalisation in sport will continue: it's a trend we've seen by the choice of Rio for the 2016 Olympics and Qatar for the 2022 World Cup. This will mean changes to traditional sporting calendars in recognition of the demands of climate and time zones across the planet. Sport will have to respond to new technologies, the speed at which we process information and apparent reductions in attention span. Shorter formats, such as Twenty20 cricket and rugby sevens, could aid the development of traditional sports in new territories. The demands of TV will grow, as will technology's role in umpiring and consuming sport. Electronics companies are already planning broadcasts using live holograms. I don't think we'll see an acceptance of performance-enhancing drugs: the trend has been towards zero tolerance and long may it remain so.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Economic Globalisation
Globalisation, based on persistent technological innovation, is likely to remain the most significant driver of long- term economic change. Nevertheless, liberal trade and investment policies that have accelerated globalisation since the end of World War II will be subject to periodic challenge, and may be temporarily reversed.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Globalization & future markets
Globalization is a multifaceted process not limited to economic effects — political and social aspects are closely intertwined. But globalization has both proponents and critics. As the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump shows, the progress of free trade agreements and thus globalization strongly depends on the accordance and objectives of political leaders. In an interconnected world, migration constitutes one major facet of globalization with a strong impact on society and political debate.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Beyond globalization
Globalization is still progressing, but also facing powerful headwinds. “Anti-globalization” sentiments are growing, and governments are responding: the United Kingdom is moving ahead with Brexit implementation; the United States has already stepped back from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and may now have changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in its sights. Meanwhile, traditional globalization metrics are slowing.
2017
The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
McKinsey
Ongoing globalization
Globalization will continue, with exports and FDI growing faster than GDP. The world's real GDP will grow by 4.0% p.a. to around USD 135 trillion by 2030, up from USD 62 trillion today. GDP growth will slow down compared to the past 20 years, when the increase was 5.3% p.a.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Household-scale batteries
Globally, 1.3 billion people do not have access to electricity and 2.7 billion are still cooking on harmful and inefficient stoves.306 many of these people live in rural communities and urgently need energy services to achieve development progress and improvements in their quality of life. off-grid solar systems are seen as the key to addressing household and community-level energy needs, especially in sub-Saharan African and South Asian countries. These systems rely heavily on batteries to mediate the intermittent generation of solar energy and match it to use patterns.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)