Trends Identified
Graphene and related new materials
Graphene is a form of carbon, in sheets one atom thick. The outstanding material properties of graphene give it the potential to replace or supplement many other materials, in a vast range of potential products and applications. It is the first of what will become a large family of new 2-D materials. It is expected that graphene will be a "game-changer"; it will enable new or enhanced applications, processes and products in a wide range of industries and sectors of the economy. The long-term forecast worldwide potential market will be hundreds of billions of euros.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Graphene
Graphene is an allotrope of carbon in the form of a two-dimensional, honey-comb lattice. Although graphene has an atomic-scale thickness, its structural and chemical characteristics are stable enough to substitute silicon diode.
2009
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2009
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Green technology
Green technology refers to environmentally sound technology. Existing technologies as well as new nanotechnology, biotechnology, and digital technology may all be deployed in new ways to reduce non-renewable resource use and to utilise and support ecosystem processes. Technology change in the energy and materials sectors are key. 41 In the energy sector of developed countries, crucial technologies suggested by experts include smart grids, highly energy efficient buildings, electric vehicles, vastly improved and cheap batteries, nuclear power, hydrogen- fueled vehicles and supply infrastructures, and natural gas technologies. In developing countries, they included new ways of electrification, desalination based on reverse osmosis, small and medium sized nuclear reactors, and mini-grids based on intermittent renewables with storage. 42 Cheaper and highly energy efficient fossil fuel power plants will be needed. Highly efficient vehicles including hybrid cars and intelligent transport systems (ITS) technologies for controlling traffic flows will be important. 43, 44 Large- scale deployment of solar power, and technologies to replace aluminium and other high impact materials are equally important. 45 Salinity gradient power technology could potentially produce 80 per cent of the global energy demand. 46 Passive housing technology could make a big difference in energy use, as it results in ultra-low energy buildings that require little to no energy for space heating or cooling. Decentralized electric power systems are expected to play a very important role in coming years, especially for ensuring that no one is left behind. To this end, RD&D is needed in such systems (efficient appliances, intermittent 122 | Global Sustainable Development Report 2016 supply solar, wind) and in interactions with heat pumps for space heating, heat and power storage and electric mobility. Innovative community and business models will be needed to operate such systems in terms of reliability, affordability, sustainability and safety and privacy. Another component of this emerging technology system will be integrated urban and rural mobility, notably a well- functioning public transport infrastructure, new mobility options (e.g., e-bike, e-car, greenwheels) and in some areas biofuel supply chains. 47 Hence, deployment of off- grid electricity systems and even direct current can be a core solution to achievement of the SDGs. 48, 49 They should be given ample research funding. 50, 51 For example, off- grid electricity could be used to dry grain 52 and to store and transport perishable food, 53 in order to reduce food wastage. 54, 55 Institutional innovation does not only promote the development and deployment of technologies, but also provides the foundations for paradigm shift. In China, block tariff of household electricity consumption accelerated replacement of incandescent fluorescent lamps with LED lamps. Feed-in pricing of wind-power and solar PV are thought to have contributed to make China the country with highest increase in and the largest installed capacity of wind and solar PV in the world. 56, 57, 58 Cookstoves with the emissions comparable to those of an LPG stove would play an important role in the achievement of the SDGs, given the enormous and multiple benefits that could come from the large-scale deployment of such a stove. 59, 60 Globally, more than 2 billion people rely on traditional use of biomass fuels for cooking and heating and have limited access to clean and efficient energy for lighting. Increasing access to clean and efficient cookstoves and fuels can also ensure lasting, inclusive gains in the areas of poverty eradication, food security, health and well-being, education, gender equality, economic growth, reducing inequalities, sustainable cities, environmental protection, and climate change mitigation. Effective deployment of these technologies requires substantial engagement of women. Developers need to put female users at the center of their concepts, design and deployment stages. 61 Technologies for pollution purification will be of the utmost importance until 2030. New technologies for detection and removal emerging contaminants in stormwater, for drinking water, and wastewater treatment and reuse are emerging. In the future, every gasoline-powered motor vehicle would be equipped with emission purification plant, and polluting enterprises would be installed with comprehensive purifying equipment. Meanwhile, environmentally-friendly energy would be widely used in diverse industries. 62 New technologies are emerging that support a transition to a circular economy. 63 These include technologies for remanufacturing, technologies for product life- cycle extension such as re-use and refurbishment, and technologies for recycling. 64 Social innovation will also play an important role. The level of performance and deployment will depend on material streams and the specific context. Proposed by the EU Circular Economy Package of December 2015, a recycling rate of 65 per cent for municipal solid waste may be achievable by 2030. 65 Technological advancement should foster an urban metabolism that is sustainable in itself not dependent on other regions for the supply of resources and the discharge of waste. 66 In this direction, new recycle and reuse technologies and multifunctional infrastructures play a pivotal role. Technologies for integrating centralized systems and decentralized systems for provision of services such as energy and potable water are also emerging. 67, 68, 69, 70, 71 A whole range of new deep sea mining technologies are emerging, but many of them are not yet commercially viable. These technologies could have greatly impact sustainable development, in view of their impacts on global resource use and their potential benefits for island nations. 72 The production of food for half of the world’s population continued to depend on fertilisers made by fixation of nitrogen through the Haber-Bosch process. Technologies for nitrogen fixation that are less energy intensive and that avoid very high H 2 pressure would be highly desirable. Advances in bio-organometallics and materials chemistry are greatly increasing the efficiency of biomimetic analogs of nitrogenase , a natural enzyme that can fix atmospheric nitrogen at room temperature and pressure without the need of molecular hydrogen. Improvements in geophysical research and seismic exploration of the ocean floor, through the application of marine Vibroseis (MV), show potential in providing an environmentally safer alternative to airguns, which have negative effects on marine animals. 73 Artificial photosynthesis is close to commercialization. It is now possible to produce different carbohydrates directly from CO 2 and water using merely sunlight. Artificial leafs, when immersed in water, directly produces hydrogen and oxygen. These leafs consist of wireless, low-cost, thin film amorphous silicon multi-junction cells. 74
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
On AR in the enterprise
Greg Sullivan, Director of Communications, mixed reality, Microsoft. On AR in the enterprise: This past year one of the things that’s become clear is that the commercial space has seen the value of HoloLens, and AR/VR/XR in general, in a range of deployments in some very interesting ways. There is a value in taking the digital world and the physical world and bringing them together in meaningful ways. We’re just starting to see people getting a handle on what they can do with the technology–things like remotely assisting someone or laying out physical objects in a digital space. In the next 12 months we expect to continue to realize the commercial value of the HoloLens. We fully expect to see more [enterprise] customers take advantage of HoloLens to achieve more.
2019
The biggest tech trends of 2019, according to top experts
Fast Company
Growing output of primary inputs
Growing demand among more nations for oil and natural gas, grains and proteins, fresh water and extracted ores, such as copper, aluminum and rare earth metals, will create price volatility and transient shortages of a few of these commodities over the coming decade. Investment in conservation measures, alternative supplies and technologies will increase in some areas, though new fossil fuel sources will reduce economic incentives to invest in alternative energy. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $3 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Ideas and Identities are driving a wave of exclusion
Growing global connectivity amid weak growth will increase tensions within and between societies. Populism will increase on the right and the left, threatening liberalism. Some leaders will use nationalism to shore up control. Religious influence will be increasingly consequential and more authoritative than many governments. Nearly all countries will see economic forces boost women’s status and leadership roles, but backlash also will occur.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Human versus machine
Growing levels of automation will not only begin to transform the future of business but also the future of work
2018
8 sustainability trends that will define 2018
Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership
Changing Patterns of Behaviour
Growing material prosperity is likely to result in behavioural changes with associated effects, such as changes in consumption, diet and health. The proportion of the world population considered to be middle-income has increased rapidly over the last 30 years and, out to 2040, may increase by a further 80 million per annum if rapid economic development continues in countries such as India, China and Brazil. Consumption of food, water, energy and minerals will remain positively correlated with increasing prosperity despite efforts towards conservation, recycling and environmentalism.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Industrial processes become more environmental
Growing pressure on renewable and non-renewable resources, as well as public concern about the safety of new nano and biomaterials, will put greater emphasis on building “closed-loop systems.” In these systems, waste from one industry becomes the feedstock for another. Products may be designed to be safe and fully recyclable. Synthetic biology will enable industrial processes to mimic nature (e.g., enzymes can accelerate the decomposition of industrial waste into safe by-products and have commercial value), and nanotechnology will produce new goods with new properties at a smaller scale that may use far less resources. (For example, soon, a smart phone will contain 20 or 30 tiny nanosensors that collect biometric data.)
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Sustainability to shape the face of business
Growing public consciousness of sustainability issues and political leadership gaps will increasingly open the way for business to step up to the challenge of sustainability leadership, and either lead, adapt or fail.
2018
8 sustainability trends that will define 2018
Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership