Trends Identified
The Changing Context of Development Cooperation and Financing Sustainable Development
In order to achieve the universal 2030 Agenda, drawing on all sources of finance— public and private, domestic and international—in all countries will be essential. The challenge is to enhance the impact of available resources, while also catalysing additional sources of financing into investments in sustainable development.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Liquefied natural gas
In recent years the global energy market has seen a significant increase in the role of liquefied natural gas. Its main advantage lies in its potential for transcontinental transportation using high-capacity cryogenic tankers. The development of liquefied natural gas has had a serious impact on the globalisation of world gas markets: opportunities have arisen to extract gas in regions where the routing of pipeline systems is not seen to be appropriate. Additionally a number of countries without their own supplies of natural gas and in geographical disadvantageous regions obtain a possibility to bring gas fuels and raw materials into their economies. Increasing share of natural gas in the global energy balance due to substituting oil and coal gives an impetus to the development of these technologies which also lead to reduced CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Machine-readable world
In recent years, governments have started to discover the power of machine readability, with energy devoted to building open government data programmes that help to fuel innovations both within government and in the broader economy. They are now setting their aims even higher by developing innovative new projects that have the potential to completely reconceive one of the most foundational roles of government – creating laws and other rules that impact the daily lives of citizens and businesses. Governments are also seeking to digitise human characteristics, senses and surroundings to deliver innovative services and interventions. This growing wealth of machine-readable content serves as fuel for a new generation of innovations that use emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and blockchain. While these advances show tremendous potential, they can also pose major risks and raise significant ethical questions. Governments should seek to understand and experiment with these technologies, but should do so in an informed and ethical way.
2019
EMBRACING INNOVATION IN GOVERNMENT-Global Trends 2019
OECD
Gas-hydrates
In Russia there are favourable conditions for the formation and conservation of significant gas-hydrate reserves. It should be noted that this build-up of natural methane hydrates has the greatest possible commercial prospects for industrial development, which is currently limited by the high cost of extraction and high technological risks. The development of industrial technology to extract gas-hydrates would contribute to unprecedented increases in gas reserves, capable of satisfying global demand for several centuries into the future. The extraction of methane from new major gas-hydrate deposits could radically change the configuration of the global gas market and the composition of its major players – both producers and buyers. This is due to the fact that large methane hydrate resources are held by countries which import natural gas (for example, Japan). In Russia, the continental resources of gas-hydrates which are the most promising for industrial development are estimated at approximately 400 trillion m3 and are concentrated in areas along permafrost formations in Eastern Siberia, the Timan-Pechora and Western Siberian oil and gas basins.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Fine to be fallible - profitiing from an age of epic fails
In societies hard-wired to strive for and venerate success, it may seem counter-intuitive to suggest that competitive advantage lies in publicly sharing our shortcomings. Fine to be Fallible describes a world increasingly at ease with the notion that failure is a necessary pre-requisite of success – and an acceptable consequence of being human. A companion trend to Engineered Empathy, herein lies an opportunity to associate brands with the kaleidoscope of human endeavour and carefully address failings of their own.
2018
Trending 2018
Foresight Factory
Land and water
In spite of the continent’s immense size, pressures on land and water will shape the future. As population pressure increases, it is likely that more land will be cultivated for longer periods of time, reducing vegetative cover, lowering soil fertility and accelerating erosion. Water consumption will increase for each of the major uses - irrigation, domestic and industrial. In sub-Saharan Africa, mean water withdrawals and total water consumption will increase at least up to 2025.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Infrastructural Deficit
In terms of access to infrastructure services, Africa lags well behind other developing regions. Weak physical infrastructure is a key factor that has prevented African countries from successful integration into the global trading system. Poor infrastructure is behind the higher trade cost that Africa, especially its landlocked countries, face compared with other regions. Poor infrastructure accounts for 40 per cent of transport costs for coastal countries and 60 per cent for landlocked countries. Africa seems to have failed to sustain the gains that were made during the three decades up to 2000. In this respect a number of countries are failing to expand services fast enough to keep up with rapid demographic growth and urbanisation. If the present trends prevail, Africa is likely to fall even further behind other developing regions, delaying universal access for a half century or more in many countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Launch of payloads into orbit using heavy space preparations and modular carrier rockets
In terms of services to place payloads in orbit there will be some development in the transportation of high-mass space instruments and the volume of payloads and spacecraft will increase by using lighter materials and integrated systems alongside reductions in the negative environmental impact.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Global urbanisation and growing number of megacities
In the 1950s, about 70% of the world’s population lived in rural areas, and the rest in urban settlements. Today, more than half the population (54%) lives in an urban area and this number is projected to reach at least 66% by 2050
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Old infrastructure, new investments
In the advanced economies, renewed economic vitality will require refurbishing and expanding critical infrastructure, much of which was built more than a half-century ago. But with public finances under strain, the job will increasingly present opportunities for public-private partnerships. In emerging economies, continued infrastructure development will be needed to accommodate growth and lay a foundation for future expansion. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $1 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company